An Amusing Spot in Razz - Can Hero Value Bet Queen High vs Two Pair
Action has checked to 6th street:
Should hero value bet? I believe villain (in best case scenario for them - A3 in the hole) has 26 outs to win out of 40 cards remaining, which is about 65% equity:
2 fours
4 fives
4 sixes
4 eights
3 nines
3 tens
3 jacks
3 queens
Although note that hero would have the tiniest of redraws if villain hits a Q.
If hero bets, it will be a 2bb bet into a 1.4bb pot, meaning villain will need to be good 37% of the time to call.
10 Replies
Well if villain has that sort of hand then you aren't value betting, you are bluffing. But the fact that this hand was checked to 6th street shows that neither of you know how to play razz at all, so its kinda hard to analyze. This hand should have gone villain raises on 3rd street without looking at his cards, you fold. Failing that, he bets blind on 4th st, you fold. So yeah I don't know what's going on here, but villain probably has something horribly wrong with his hand, and you have 100% equity, but you should check to induce a bluff.
Well if villain has that sort of hand then you aren't value betting, you are bluffing. But the fact that this hand was checked to 6th street shows that neither of you know how to play razz at all, so its kinda hard to analyze. This hand should have gone villain raises on 3rd street without looking at his cards, you fold. Failing that, he bets blind on 4th st, you fold. So yeah
If I bet, it's for thin value/protection.
How do you conclude I have 100% equity?
How can villain possibly bluff me off my hand when he cannot be ahead?
He can be ahead, if he has JT or better in the hole.
DD is concluding you have 100% from the fact that 3rd is an autocomplete and 4th and even 5th are an autobet for him, so he must have, what in his mind, is some hopeless case of a hand. It is quite hard to analyse the hand in a meaningful way when he misses these.
He can be ahead, if he has JT or better in the hole.
DD is concluding you have 100% from the fact that 3rd is an autocomplete and 4th and even 5th are an autobet for him, so he must have, what in his mind, is some hopeless case of a hand. It is quite hard to analyse the hand in a meaningful way when he misses these.
Right - what I mean is that from his point of view he has zero fold equity, given the boards - the only way a bluff from him is going to work is if I somehow have a worse two pair (very unlikely). In other words, it's an absurd situation to start bluffing, and I'm never checking to him here in the hope that he will start bluffing.
Sure, my theoretical equity here is obviously high - I just don't agree it can be gauged as 100%.
If the Villain hasn't paired on 4th street, this is total insanity. Therefore he has (?7)2727 and the best low he can make is a 227xx. You have 100% equity.
If the Villain hasn't paired on 4th street, this is total insanity. Therefore he has (?7)2727 and the best low he can make is a 227xx. You have 100% equity.
Not sure what you mean regarding villain not pairing on 4th street. Please see the OP - worst case scenario is that villain has 26 outs to win out of 40 cards remaining, which is about 65% equity - so my equity clearly is not 100%.
Not sure what you mean regarding villain not pairing on 4th street. Please see the OP - worst case scenario is that villain has 26 outs to win out of 40 cards remaining, which is about 65% equity - so my equity clearly is not 100%.
Unless 4th streets matches one of his whole cards, he'd be beyond bad to check 4th street. Therefore, he should have 0 equity.
Here's the worst-case scenario:
Hero can actually be a 2-1 underdog here! And even if we give villain the weakest possible live draw, they still have 25% equity:
So hero is definitely a far cry from 100% equity.
