KKQT6 Drawmaha

Yeah, I’d just pitch the 6.

I don't see too much value here in keeping the QT. It reduces your chances of improving your 5-card draw hand by a good bit. And how often is it going to win you the PLO pot? You have top set. If you improve to a straight, that only makes a difference if you and villain both make the same straight, or if the A comes to give him top set. Otherwise, it doesn't matter. It would be different if we were multi-way, and again if there were lots of chips still left to bet. It would also disguise what you have for draw. But allin heads-up, it seems like it's better to gain equity on the draw half of the pot, since you're giving up so little on the PLO half.

Yea, a pair of Kings isn’t an unassailable 5 card hand, keeping the QT is just making it easier for them to catch up.

Same. There's already a K on the flop so you mostly will improve to 2 pair hands for the draw portion and the QT adds to your Omaha hand potential, especially on a rainbow board.

Agree with Fossilman. I think drawing 2 to the KKQ is better for more equity on the draw side. Villain is more likely to catch up in omaha with a backdoor flush or medium straight than a high straight given the action.

Thanks. But I would draw 3, and only keep KK.

I’d have to run the math, but do you really improve your hand here by drawing 3 instead of 1 when a king is dead?

OK did some math, it does seem very close between D2 and D3, to the point where it's not obvious which is better.

I have draw 3 as ~9% more likely to improve than draw 2.
Draw 2 increases omaha equity by a trivial amount, perhaps 2 to 3%.

The improvement is not apple to apples, since Hero has a much larger omaha equity lead, and is frequently over 90% equity to improve that side of the pot. Hero is maybe a 70% equity favorite on the 5C side? not sure

Draw 3: 12 outs to improve
3 draws at the single K out (3).
2 draws at new non-K card (3 outs x 2 = 6)
2 draws at second non-K Card (3 outs x 2=6)

Draw 2: 11 outs
2 draws at single K (2)
2 draws at three Q outs (3 outs x 2 = 6)
1 draw at new non K or Q (3 outs)

With a difference of only one net out, card removal factors from the 3 opponents who saw flop is important, and perhaps we should discount the number of Q and Ts available for that reason.

For the omaha side: Hero often has 90% or more equity there against villain likely range. Keeping the Q or T does have a tiny improvement in omaha equity but its fairly trivial, maybe 2% or so. Also keeping the T is slightly better than the Q. Keeping the QT does mantain the best overall omaha equity but again, its tiny (not even 3%).

I might be missing something or making some errors, idk, but I do play a lot of Dramaha.

Just to clarify, since I ran out of time to edit.

Draw 3 should at MINIMUM, be slightly better than Draw 2, and in some cases may be GREATLY better than draw 2, since discounted broadway outs will be much more damaging to the 2-drawer than the three-drawer.

Sidenote: Does anyone have a 5C equity calculator or some kind of probability snapshots for common spots? - I used to have a calculator but lost track of where I kept it.

Galts Motor (v2.05 b81) - Omaha High
10000 sims in 0.9 seconds
Board: KcJs5d

SB - Equity: 68.3%
Range: KK

BTN - Equity: 31.7%
Range: 55QT (30%), AAKJ (10%), AAQT (30%), JJQT (30%)

Galts Motor (v2.05 b81) - Omaha High
10000 sims in 1.0 seconds
Board: KcJs5d

SB - Equity: 78.0%
Range: KKQT

BTN - Equity: 22.0%
Range: JJQT (38%), AAQT (15%), JJAT (46%)

Galts Motor (v2.05 b81) - Omaha High
10000 sims in 1.0 seconds
Board: KcJs5d

BB - Equity: 78.3%
Range: KKQT

SB - Equity: 21.7%
Range: JJQT (22%), AAQT (39%), JJAT (39%)

i'm having a hard time following your sim DesertCat - it seems like you are giving BTN a very strong omaha range? even when i am assuming a weak dramaha range from villain description and him getting it in very light

sidenote: i accidentally ran the equities for 4c Omaha initially instead of 5c in my previous post, so Hero equity will be closer to 85% in the omaha side instead, but it's not going to alter the core strategy much

Not sure why I had AAKJ in their range, but it shouldn’t make much of a difference. My assumption is they should have a wrap and maybe a set given action, if that’s true then keeping your QTincreaes your Omaha equity about 10.

Give me another range got villain and I’ll run it again for you. Just understand I wrote the simulator about ten years ago and haven’t touched it since, so can’t warranty its accuracy.

I just use Odds Oracle, available at http://propokertools.com/ which is free currently. Though I do own the paid version.

Doing drawmaha ranges in an omaha calculator is annoying. I think villain has very few traps given how short and whaley he is, so I think his range is going to have a lot of small and medium 1p hands, and also 1 card flush draws (also maybe 2 to a flush draw). He might have some aaxxx and two pair combos too, but i think we should discount those.

But to give some simple equity example for the omaha side:

If we give Hero a range of KKxxx, and villain a range of AAxxx, QQxxx - Hero has 82 % equity
Against QTxxx, Hero has 66%
If Hero keeps the QT vs QTxxx: Hero has 77%

the more small pairs we add to villain range the worse his omaha equity becomes, which is how i arrived at my 85% equity - which could be too high, but upper 70s is certainly reasonable

still without seeing villain's hand, i think draw 3 is going to be the best net equity play when we account for the equity improvement in the 5C-High

Yeah but he limped preflop and bet the flop, which means he has a weak draw hand and a “strong” Omaha hand. Since we block top set, I’ve got to assume the same as dc - lot of wraps and maybe smaller set. If he has a wrap he’s going g to keep, he going to be drawing slim in the draw half.