Help with 2-7 triple draw probability
I am struggling with calculating the probability for a 2 card draw in 2-7 triple draw. I understand the mechanics of the game and how to play (i think) however i am trying to learn the math behind this so i can get comfortable with pot odds etc etc.
here is the scenario:
you are dealt 2,3,7,10,k
you discard 10,k
1. what is the probability that you catch both a 4 and a 5 over the next 3 draws?
2. What is the probability of catching both by the second draw?
Thank you very much for your help!!
1 Reply
Assuming no blocker effects, this is a straight combination problem from high school probability class.
There are other issues, however. First is that say you catch 8/4 on the first draw...You aren't going to break the 8 and go for the wheel.
Here is how you calculate the odds on the first draw: There are 16 combos of 5/4. There are a total of (47*46)/2 combos of cards you can get. You are 16/1081 to get the wheel; or about 1.5%.
To calculate the odds you get it on the second draw, you have to take the chance of catching 1, and then you are 4/45 to catch the other one. If you bricked the first draw, then you (45*44)/2, *16 to catch perfect on the second draw...
Don't forget to eliminate the 1.5% from the first draw.
