Has anyone ever seen a worse graph vs EV than this?
I've been playing professionally for nearly a decade now, and over the last four years have been on such a disgusting stretch of cards I am struggling to fathom it. I play almost exclusively PLO cash with the occasional NL tournaments. These results are from stakes ranging from mainly 2/5 to 10/20 with a small sample at 15/30, 25/50, and 50/100. The earlier years were mainly 10/20 and higher, but after running over 100 BI below EV I moved down in stakes because I couldn't stomach simply how badly it was going. Last year, I finally ran above EV and had a win rate of 10.92. I didn't put in as much volume as normal as I took a month off for my wedding and to go on my honeymoon, but it was a good year. This year, I am running over 80 BI below EV in a 54k hand sample, and am getting smoked. Seems borderline impossible. Almost all hands played over this year and last year are 2/5 with a couple 5/10 and 10/20 sessions sprinkled in. Running this bad has made me punt a bunch of money at the sportsbook (not proud of it) and this recent stretch has actually made me start feeling insane and unhappy outside of poker, which is why I decided to post here. My wife has had to deal with me constantly baffled and frustrated with these results, and I don't have many poker friends who can fully understand. I'd guess that I am running another 100k+ below EV untracked on my laptop over the last 4 years, but that isn't really worth going into because I have no proof and am just estimating the number. I just know it's very bad. Wondering if anyone has ever experienced or seen anything like this, or if I truly am the unluckiest poker player alive. Happy to post other graphs/results and answer questions.
Thanks for reading.
4 Replies
I've have been playing about 20 years and I'm telling you this is insane. Have you tried switching rooms?
No, it would definitely explain the all-in ev gap. If you are constantly getting it in when your opponents outs are super live then the all-in ev metrics will all get screwed up.
Another thing OP, running below ev doesn't "make" you dump money on sports betting. You are just a gambling addict.
you probably never had a proper doom switch or you are not a winning player. As a winning player I don't mean barely above 0.
where do you plan to put in your volume now? i had similar variance on 10/20 bovada plo seems really sketch.