Is this just variance?
hi all,
I have been playing poker for quite a while and have been studying a lot. I like to think my overall game is pretty decent for the stakes I play (toerneys up to 50 Dol). My BB/100 and BB/100 adjusted look fine too, but for some reason I have lost a ****load of money with them.
I find it very hard to stay positive at the moment due to the numbers. Is this just variance? Am I just getting super unlucky? Or is that impossible to say?
I added two images from different sites where you can see my BB won chart and my BB/100.
if anybody could take the time to reply, that would be highly appreciated
thanks,
Kevin
11 Replies
I forgot to add these:
No this isn't just variance. This seems like you are just a total nit that doesn't know how to play poker the right way.
At least you came to the right place, I will give you that.
If you follow a few golden nuggets of advice from the best of the best in this forum you might turn this around soon.
Watch and learn.
Too nitty brah.
Do you even apply the concept of dynamic ranges on your game?
No this isn't just variance. This seems like you are just a total nit that doesn't know how to play poker the right way.
At least you came to the right place, I will give you that.
If you follow a few golden nuggets of advice from the best of the best in this forum you might turn this around soon.
Watch and learn.
The statts may be a tight but the bb/100 number shows I am making winning decisions right? Or have I misunderstood that? What are your numbers?
Against good players I take a more GTO approach and vs fish I play exploitive.
I haven't cashed in my last 15 live tournaments at my local casino (turbo structure, ~30 players).
Is this just variance?
Yes... How many places paid?
Have you considered getting more 1st, 2nd and 3rd place finishes
BB/100 is a cash game stat. It has little to no application in a tournament setting. DUCY? In a tournament it is meaningless. If you are playing in a tournament and you are thinking or caring about BB/100, then that is part of the reason you are losing. If you doubt me look at your stats. Overall you are a positive BB/100, yet you are losing wads of cash.
You need to master two things to succeed at tournament play: 1) you need a basic understanding of Ranges:* what they are and how they work; and 2) you need to understand short stack play.
*Please note: I am not saying you have to learn how to execute a GTO strategy, but you do need to understand ranges and have a solid general idea of what it is the GTO guys are trying to accomplish, because all of the bots are programed to follow a GTO strategy now and at least a few of the guys trying to play that way are actually pretty good at it.
Also it looks like you are over-defending your Big Blind. You don't want to be a push-over but from the looks of things you are defending it to the bitter end, over and over again. Stop doing that.
I haven't cashed in my last 15 live tournaments at my local casino (turbo structure, ~30 players).
Is this just variance?
It can definitely be variance. Here is an example from a day at roulette. I selected section 3 37 times in a row and missed all of them. There are only 3 sections. I should win 1 in just over 3 times (green numbers) but somehow went 37 spins consecutively and missed.
