Stupid Variance is Stupid

pics or it didn't happen

also I didn't read your OP

dude, you turned down a guaranteed pot to goad someone into flipping with you where you're the dog

wtf

if this was a friendly home game then whatever, but you're playing in a casino for dollar amounts that matter for you

you need to resolve this or just quit playing full stop

Perhaps you didn't read the post.

Also, when the real money went in, I wasn't flipping. J was dominating him. AQ versus KQ. He called even after a show?

Would you choose to give up your fold equity in a small flip in order to get way more money in against someone dominated?

results based thinking right there

exposing your hand earlier was inexcusable imo

In terms of strategy or in the spirit of this thread? Just curious. Obviously it is stupid from an EV standpoint. If EV is the most important, then I am sure you will never find yourself invited to juicy private games.

should have folded the river

again, more results based thinking

using this framework you can justify anything and instead of taking a moment to be reflective and learn (why else are you posting if that's not the goal?)

fwiw you're talking to someone who made his living almost exclusively at high stakes private games and crushed them and still kept on getting invited back nonetheless because they liked playing with me
i know better than most what it takes to get invited and continue getting invited despite being a big winner in those games (as well as deducing when they were crooked and cease playing at them - i'd spend hours memorizing the different altered clocks and lamps etc that cheating suppliers sold on their websites and would carefully scan the rooms for those things before each session)

jim, i'm not trying to dunk on you, but it's extremely important to recognize that you don't even remotely have it all figured out, you're a good poster and generally have good strat contributions, but you're first and foremost a low stakes player and dealer - you are not even playing in "juicy private games" so your "this is what it takes" is pure speculation on your behalf rather than undisputable truth as you claim it to be

here's the thing everyone talking about "getting an invite" doesn't talk about enough, you need a lot of money and a big edge in skill to even have an invite to one of thoses games (if they are clean to even matter)

there are whales at those games, but there's also other pros who you will eat you breakfast and as a 1-3 player, your edge is probably marginal at best over the whales

your first priority should be getting better at this game and making more money at it so you have the skills and bankroll to actually capitalize if an invite comes along

as it stands now, you couldn't even accept an offer into a juicy 10/20 game even if it came based off that single decision to expose your hand

i don't claim to have all the answers myself, i'm often wrong, but this is something i know a lot about and nobody on earth gives a flying f if you exposed your hand in that spot, nobody who wasn't going to invite you to the game is going to change their mind after seeing that play - all you're doing it developing bad habits and punting EV

1. How is this results based thinking?

2. How much EV do you think you gain when you induce other players to overshove hands? Also, how much EV is gained by inducing players to call you light when you overshove? I got called by a dominated hand (AQ vs KQ) simply because of the shenanigans I started. Also, I think you are taking a one night thing and pretending this is a normal way I play when you pass judgement. It was notable because it was not normal. It was a unique night.

3. The spirit of this board matters. It is about brags and beats. Not strategy. Also, I made it perfectly clear this is not the right way to play.

4. You should stick with what you know and stop pretending you know what levels I play and why I play them because you are flat out wrong. I am very much a recreational player by choice because I play irregularly and I want it to be fun and not a job. I have played for a living in the past and came to hate the grind of poker. I am a poker dealer as a form of semi-retirement. I used to work outside the industry doing consulting and got sick of working long stressful hours for lots of money so I quit and told my wife I was retired. After a few months she told me I was too young to sit around the house and wanted me to do something, anything. I considered playing poker regularly, but again, I don't want to suck the joy out of playing poker by making it a job. So I compromised and deal occasionally as a way of getting out of the house and still staying connected to poker while I make some beer money. I can work as much or as little as I want (except for promises I have made to be available for certain big poker tournaments where they really need dealers).

As for big private games, as I have talked about elsewhere on this site, I play in a weekly $25/$50 ($100 straddle) NL private game. Granted, I am partially staked in that game, but not because I cannot afford it, but because that was the cost of me getting into the game. The pro running the game wanted more skin in the game so he got me to play where he gets a proportionate amount of my results (good or bad). I have also played a few times in a different private $25/$50 NL game, but I cannot get in there regularly. The two pros running it didn't want someone like me in the game after the first few times. Now, I am only a substitute when they are desperate and I have to pay some fairly hefty juice to get into the game. I have been invited by players to some other private games, but I have some reservations about how they are run so I haven't played. Also, many years ago I both played and dealt in a private game that had a bunch of options/commodity brokers in it. I saw too much shady stuff and more and more unsavory characters started playing in the game so I quit both playing and dealing.

Point is you have no idea what you are talking about.

lol hi dutch

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/29/ne...

First of all, let me apologize. This probably came off as too much. I completely understand. What I said was probably too much, but it was meant in the same spirit as your comment.

I am sure I am oversensitive to judgement based on current play level. I completely understand that playing $2/$5 is not the peak of poker knowledge. Absolutely 100% true. That said, I am not some 25 year old novice dealer thinking he knows more than he really knows. I have played poker for over 30 years. I have seen some ****.

Granted, I would fully admit that when it came to any contest about the absolute best poker players in the world I would be lacking. Playing at that level requires knowledge I have not gained not even close. I am more than knowledgeable to admit that. However I am knowledgeable enough to understand why I cannot yet compete at that level.

As for private games, I will leave with this nugget. The $25/$50($100) game I play in is slowly dying. The worst players have lost as much as they can. The rest are solid, but not enough to sustain a game long term. So we have been trying to bring in new blood, but it hasn't been successful. The most recent addition is a business owner who happens to be a decent poker player. Not great, but decent. Perfect for the game.

So the last session he is a slight winner. He is probably the 4th best player in the game. The pro, then me, and then another businessman who is better than most think. The absolutely worst remaining player in the game is having a terrible night. He is down a ton. He is on his last money. Like many in that situation, he just wants to gamble. He is losing and only luck will help him. So he starts talking about flipping for stacks. He just wants to either double up or go home. He is not cheating or angling anyone. He is willing to gamble.

Unfortunately the new player is to his left. Multiple times it gets down to be blind versus blind where the bad/unlucky player wants to flip blindly. The new player refuses. He keeps looking at his cards.

Needless to say, this was a turnoff for every other player at the table. They have all been in the losers shoes. They want to gamble on a bad night. His unwillingness to accept random action hurt his chances of ever getting invited back. He probably will until someone better can be found.

I have been at $2/$5 casino games where similar players just wanted to gamble. No one has the advantage, just flip for remaining stacks. It isn't positive EV, it isn't negative. It is pure variance.

A player's acceptance of such a gamble is a huge determinant if they will be accepted into bigger private games.

You laugh without understanding. That gets you laughed at.

Let's put it another way. There are people who have made far money than you who might not be as smart as you. They were just not as pathetically locked in to poker as you.

What a douche, hopefully you will learn something about life outside poker