My results of grinding 2NL 5NL 10NL 25NL 50NL 100NL

Bet bet shove line seems not working in SRP, ill think what line would be better maybe bet bet 150% pot or something like that

lets go

Got called one time. Doesnt work anymore.

Two times 😃

I noticed one thing, when flush draw is completed and they show any activity, they bet or raise, whatever, they always have flush like 99% of times at these limits

vs fish

finally something easy and positive

150% works 😃

try again mf

I’m still thinking about variance and poker, variance can be bigger factor than i may think

Besides poker I’ve played few other games like Chess, League of Legends, Hearthstone etc top players who were always high on the leaderboards they had one thing in common, they all were consistent with their game, less risky plays, more safe and guaranteed paths, they were playing meta game consistently, more talented guys who scored lower on the leaderboards they were consistently taking more risky paths

I’m lucky i played many competitive games so i can now understand how important is to be consistent it applies to poker too

Today even tho i played really good, won a lot of big hands in the end i ended up losing the session, 2 times i bluff shoved river, even tho it was +EV shove villain called me with weak hand both times, two times i went allin pre with AK, one time vs AA and one time vs QQ lost both too

Now I’m thinking of paths to less variance gameplan, i know as i move up stakes there will be even more and more variance because it’s just like that, as regs get better they will put me in tougher spots, they will force me to bluff catch their river shoves etc

To be in a spot where pot is too big and you either have to bluff shove or bluff catch, this itself is high variance spot, it’s not so good for consistency imo also all preflop coinflips which leads to run into AA-KK time to time

NHs!

Be careful with coaches btw. Most are lazy and rely on the fact they might be winning at games to get people to pay them.

Just because you can win at the games, doesn't make you a good coach. Coaches should have a method of teaching to make their players better. Recording a session and re-watching it together is a **** way of coaching.

would i be to watch any nl50/100 or below players game for 30mins on video i could write on a notepad a gathering of leaks and how to work on them its like 1hr job ive done it before.

u dont need a detailed database review or whatever for that level when the leaks of why u break-even or cant win are very obvious (just not obvious to you).

this guys biggest problem is he plays poker with a style that isnt consistently based on winning strat but rather full self-learned / improvised and moving up stakes u need like fundament based game plans which is not something a notepad of pointing ur current leaks can give to you u need like a cfp / long term coaching deal bcz to get those right it is 40+ hrs of coaching or someone really dedicating to teach u stuff personally as a short cut maybe can be done in 10 hrs if willing to learn it .

watching recorded session is exact same but u can ask stuff in real time (which mostly just derails and is worse than receiving a notepad file pointing leaks) but both of which are things that dont really benefit that much ... Someone who really benefits of that kind of coaching is a dude who is self orientating like watches coaching videos , does simulate poker, calculates stuff alone , etc. so he could grasp together on like how to play solid + someone would point his leaks = he wouldn't necessarily need a long term coaching setup but to like most others it is really the only form of coaching that i believe in having impact..

the coaching of game plans mentioned should be like some dude lectures u or u watch some lecture like : topic of today 4-b pots Out of position then it goes 3hrs

next day 3b pots etc. because u dont have real game-plan on those which covers like all boards etc. teaching u how to play winning strategies , !

these days its less effective as players are playing more generic and u could just jump to some nl100 pool and try catch up what they are doing however on apps the average dude is kinda exactly playing like this he learned poker from watching youtube and it really shows.

I totally agree, fundamentals should be taken more seriously, my game plan should be based on solid fundamentals but sometimes it’s hard to leave ego aside and do what is right anyway i believe im on a tight path and slowly going to the destination

Here todays hand and thought process behind it

I bet big on flop villain calls, i check turn, villain checks behind, now i know villain thinks maybe i was on a flush draw, river brings no flush of hearts

I think in that time in villains mind only way i can win is to bet big so im overbetting the river by following what i believe villain is thinking and im getting paid

In this second hand i again break the fundamentals by donking the turn

My thought process was:

I'm OOP so i want to take less variance path, by donking turn i prevent villain to go crazy with his bluffs and also charge a little for his flush draw

I check the river because i don't want him to raise-bluff my value bet, i prefer him to bluff his missed draws

But after this hand was finished i felt little sadness because i realized if this was higher stakes and if villain was a bit tougher, my donk bet prolly would get raised and he would bet big on the river too

I would've had to make big variance decision against my will if this hand happened in the higher limits, lets say if i havent donked prolly he would still make big cbets on turn and river still outcome would've been the same: big variance decision for me

Now I'm thinking generally playing out of position is high variance path, i should limit hands i play OOP in general but when i play i need strategy lines that will be aimed to reduce variance in general

second hand makes zero sense at all. donking isn’t about “high-variance path” “low-variance path”, it’s about range interaction. you need a range or nut advantage to start donking cards (e.g. Q977 check bet call flop - IP doesn’t cbet much 9x but you call all your 9x - now you have trips advantage)

you have zero advantage on this runout. you can’t donk. this line cost you at least 8bb in value as he’s supposed to pot turn, and no one raises donks and proves enough.

if you’re hyper-concerned about variance you might need to drop stakes to a level you’re comfortable playing financially

Dude just stop donkbetting wtf.

I’m thinking of a line to replace donking but when i imagine lets say our opponent is tough reg, if i checked the turn, what if he bets full pot, i call, villain overbets the river or jams, what i do? all i have is a single pair, i have to bluff catch, this spot by itself will be high variance in the long term

are you stuck in 2010?

Something that almost never happens might happen, better donkbet.

Actually in tough games it will happen like every time imo

Imagine you OOP vs a tough villain who is on a flush draw, you check flop, he bets, you check turn again, he either overbets turn or makes it full pot, now what? you call again right? now it's river and he missed his draw, you checked to him, what he will do? check back and give up? you believe tough villains give up that easy? he will shove most likely

The problem with your approach is that you are basing your findings on a very very small sample of hands - line a session or even 5 singular hands.
Your approach of wanting to be creative and figuring it out is respectable, but you should do it with more logic.
Just because you got called twice or so doesnt mean it doesnt work.
Players on that level are also not exploiting you, they are playing on that limit because they are lacking the skill to move up -speakimg for regs-. that is totally ok because everybody needs to learn.
You also have a very wrong conception of variance in poker, that might be because you are very new to poker. That is also ok, just listen to people that have been there long.

A rule of thumb is to play 100k on each limit then asses and decide to move up or not. 100k because everything considerbly less doesnt tell you enough about your game or skill. There are many stats that you can look at and analyze after 50k hans, but you realize the kind of sample we are talking about here.

Basing how good you play for example with the red line in a single session doesnt tell you anything. Its so easy that villain always had a **** hand and needed to fold or always had the beste hand and raised.

By pursuing the redline so much you end up playing very poorly in spots just to win in the red line and you force yourself to be aggressive in spots that would be positive EV by just playing passively and turn them into maniac aggression, not good aggression.

The answer to your question above what to do if you face a big river bet is btw a very simple one.
Study.
Study and learn how to make good decisions in those spots like everybody had to.
They are part of the game.

You also have a wrong perception of "high variance plays".
There is no such thing as a high variance play in poker -there are maybe some very rare spots but they are not what you are currently faving-
In poker -especially cash-you are gonna be in a spot over 1000k hands lets say 1000x where you face a big riber bet. Your job is to play tp the nest of your abilities to be profitbale here with things such as bliff catching, pot odds etc. Its not about winning 700 times, its about winning 300 times but with pot odds turning a profit.
What you call high bariance plays are very important spots for your winrate to become better in them.
You consider high variance plays as win or lose a big pot in that one sitaution that specific time.
But thats wrong as explained above.

High variance plays in a session and knowing how to appraoch them will
give you bb/100 winrate.
The variance might be high in tvat situation because of the i flue ce of the whole session, but you dont play individual sessions, it doesnt matter how many infividual sessions you win or lose, its about the 100k hand sample and how positive or negative it is. Thats where variance comes into play, because having a 4bb/100 wi rate or 6bb/100 winrate nets you way way less downswings that last 20k hands over that 100k sample. So playing what you consider high variance situations well actually decreases variance a lot.
You might ask - but how do you know how to play them? - Study.
Its study. Poker is learning how to play the game based on logic.
At your point you should roughly aim for 40% study, 60% play.

I am sorry to say that and I dont mean any harm, I am here in good spirits, but by the hands you
post, you are the fish in the pool.
You are the fish because your plays are based on your short term results but not on logic.

For your donk betting, its the very simpliest answer I can give you.
Donk betting has its name from "doney" aka a fish because when soembody is donk betting it is a fish (or a very highly studied reg which you are not)

What you should do:

1) get preflop ranges, the, dont need to be perfect, but you need some. They are the fundamental opening and you are 100% of the time in a situation where ,ou need to know fold raise call or 3bet. They therefore have the highest impact on your winrate. They are also free for very basic ones

2) Watch free youtube materials or get a cheap beginner course for like 100€ or so that you can work on flr a moth or 2 until you finished it. You neey structure, thats the most important thing because you are playimg blind atm. Which is ok because you are a beginner, but if you want to progress you need structure. all courses also have preflop ranges anyhow.

3) Study 40% of your poker time off the table. Dont study while playing because you heard pros saying the study while playing.

4) Your game will start to become slowly but steadily consistent.

5) DONT play for volume, aka 3 or 4 fast tables. There is no way that you can focus on playing well, especially when you are starting to learn off the tables with real things

Everybody in here is giving different advice but the essence of it always the same. Get structure.
I dont wanma put you down in any way, I as everybody else here just wants to show you the way, because you think you are heading north where your destination is, but you are actually heading east, you just dont see it.

Good luck at the tables.
Will probably be the only post here in this blog.
Wishing you the best no matter how you approach it going forward.

Thanks for your time to write such a long text, i understand your concern isn't to put me down in any way, i will try my best to take your advice even tho i may not agree with many things you said like beginner part, blindly playing, volume etc

Volume is never enough to 100% assume something unless you have 1M+, as you say 100k, imo it's nothing, variance can be cruel even on 500k sample, it depends on your winrate, if you're zoom player with 0-2 winrate you might find yourself in big downswing even after 500k hands

My findings aren't based on like 1k hands or something, i constantly build volume, 4tabling zoom helps, i check stats with PT4 on daily basis, i know sample is small anyway but what can i do, i work with what i have

Your answer to my question what to do when i face big river bet is to study right? but even if you study well you might not make accurate decisions especially vs balanced players

That spot is variance dense because you never know villain has real hand or is he bluffing, all you have is your logic, why micros so easy to play? because they rarely put you in such tough spots

I'm thinking root causes what leads to end up in such spots and if there is possibility to you, yourself force not to be in such spots by donking for example

Top regs are great in this, they will force you to be in spots where they want you to be, also they are great to avoid spots where you want them to be, study as much as you want, you will be still factory edition, same like everyone, i mean no offense but if you have big enough ambition you need to think little out of window

You mentioned ranges, i lately checked optimal ranges many times on the internet, the free ones what i found, i build my ranges around it, i know im not drilling it yet very accurately but more or less im close to it, opening tight from early positions and little loose from late positions, my 3bet range is tight from SB/BB with larger sizings (10-12BB), IP little wide with small sizings(7-8BB), i dont think my structure has any major flaws but if you can send me your fundamental ranges, structure or anything fundamental please just PM me on the forum i will check it again, much appreciated.