I guess poker never really lets you go

Hey, thanks for your response, you make a good point about adjusting my preflop 3B range vs fish BvB, I havent looked into less fold equity on SB 3x when they have a limping range BvB (as they limp what they would fold vs 3B as you stated), Ill take a look with H2N and see if this is accurate in my pool also. Seems like a good exploit though to be more linear, especially if they have a very low fold to 3B when opening SB to 3x.

I generally agree about trying to range fish, it's more of a fun exercise.

In my experience minraise is much more mergy when its BvB, compared to other positions where they minraise. I think it also depends if fish has shown that they have other raise sizes OOP, i.e if they 3-4x raise in other hands, then minraise here, its unlikely that theyre balanced between sizings.

I agree that double xR is polar, but I thought the first minraise was more merged. I think the main variable I may be putting too much emphasis on is that it's BvB, so I am treating it a lot differently than BTN vs BB ect. (Where I am more likely to treat the minraise as fish's standard sizing, containing his nutted hands too).

What do you think of the turn sizing? Should I use smaller like 1/3? I think I lose some value from worse 9x but it would make a much more comfortable bet-call. I guess it would also depend if its a passive or aggrofish.
The plan was to check back river, but upon rivering 2pr, I thought it would be too nitty BvB to check back, you're right that its very thin, and given the double XR I probably should check. With my sizing I was mainly trying to force an error based on the assumption that he would open jam flushes after the double xR. I did not expect villain to have the nut flush, I thought with the check he would only have some sets (which I dont think jam), worse 2pr, overpairs to the turn and air.

The assumption that he would jam flushes close to 95%+ of the time otr is mainly why I played the hand this way.

I'll keep in mind avoiding going thin after XR turns going forward against most player types, since in this line realistically, he reps flushes only.

I spent some more time thinking about this hand, yeah I think youre right, I just dont have the equity to bet for value on river vs his range.

End of Feb Update:

Low volume month, but I did switch to reg tables, 4x reg tables im getting like 300-320 hands an hour.
Made some improvements in my game: preflop as BB, less stationy in SRP's, less blasty in 3BPs.
Was a tough month for me due to poor health, nothing too serious but took me out of the game for a week or so.
Next week I will focus on continuing to build out my playbook, going over different SRP spots BTN vs BB.
I will probably try to study some 3BPs and 4BPs since I am likely making huge mistakes there.

I am fairly happy with my studying progess this month, given all factors, not so happy with volume.
I think it's just a grind really, and all about putting in the time. If I keep putting in the time, I think I can get to a place where I am a fairly strong player in 6 months to a year, how that translates to results I do not know.
One advantage of reg tables is that I generally autopilot less, the only time I autopilot is when I have 3-4 spots going on at the same time, which I will try to work on.

Next month I will try to get in around 30k hands. One of my main weaknesses is that I struggle to maintain high level playing for long periods of time. I can put in huge sessions, but generally I am not playing too well when I do. It seems better for me to put in 1-1.5hour sessions with break between each session, than a larger 5hour session for example; not sure how to improve on this, maybe it just comes with time.

This month also marked a low point, where I did think about quitting. It wasnt my worst downswing, 28 BI or so to end January. But the lack of progress that I feel I've made since returning to playing poker was quite demoralising. Moving up, only to just move back down multiple times. I decided to keep going, but I did take a much needed break.
I'll post some hands later on today.

Hey man, 8BB/100 adj is crushing and 10k hands having been wiped out for a week is more than fine.

Fairly happy is probably being hyper-critical of yourself.

Look forward to seeing some hands

Some hands from Feb:

1) OOP 3BP SB vs CO

PokerStars - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players

BB: 105.4 BB
UTG: 100 BB
CO: 213.64 BB
BTN: 97.08 BB
Hero (SB): 103 BB

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A♠ T♠

fold, CO raises to 2.28 BB, fold, Hero raises to 12 BB, fold, CO calls 9.72 BB

Flop: (25 BB, 2 players) 7♣ Q♠ 2♣
Hero bets 11.96 BB, CO calls 11.96 BB

Turn: (48.92 BB, 2 players) A♦
Hero checks, CO checks

River: (48.92 BB, 2 players) 2♦
Hero bets 15.4 BB, CO raises to 189.68 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 63.64 BB and is all-in

Here I decided to cbet 50% to polarise a bit more on a mostly favourable flop, no particular read on the player, other than we a little more stationy, so I thought the increase in size would make sure that low pocket pairs would fold, 99+ will likely call, I also have some good blockers for AQ, and have an overcard and bdfd.
According to the solver, this is a hand to mostly B33 with, which is confusing since we B50 a lot with AJss, I'm not sure why having a T is worse, I guess due to QJs being blocked? I guess AJ also blocks JJ which will likely call at least one bet.

I check turn and block river, vs the jam I think we have a clear call. This is such an easy node to overbluff, so many draws miss, and there is little value that villain can have, AQs and AQo, QQ, 77 and AA. The deuce is a brick and apart from quad 2's, I think plays no role in the hand but make sets even less common in his range.

Roughly speaking I think that I'm good here like 50% of the time, I need 31% given my pot odds so I think I can call.

2) 4BP OOP 140bb deep with KK
PokerStars - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

BTN: 141.08 BB
SB: 112.28 BB
BB: 103.96 BB
Hero (UTG): 231.44 BB
MP: 102.16 BB
CO: 142.16 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has K♠ K♥

Hero raises to 2.48 BB, fold, CO raises to 9 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 24 BB, CO calls 15 BB

Flop: (49.4 BB, 2 players) 8♦ J♠ Q♣
Hero bets 15.56 BB, CO calls 15.56 BB

Turn: (80.52 BB, 2 players) J♥
Hero bets 38.44 BB, CO calls 38.44 BB

River: (157.4 BB, 2 players) 3♦
Hero bets 75.16 BB, CO calls 64.16 BB and is all-in

I guess I could start off 4betting a bit bigger, like 26bb, but we're only 140bb deep,
Flop is not the best, since JJ and QQ get there, but I think I can bet small for value, AQs AJs, KQs, can all call.

On the turn, the jack pairs, I think I can check also, I think if we were deeper, I would check more often. Maybe since no fd came in, I can check more?
Either way, I triple it off for value, we lose to AA, QQ, JJ, this is 6 combos of AA, some will 5B, like say half the time, so 3 combos, 3 combos of QQ and 1 combo of JJ, for 7 combos. 5 Combos of KJs, AJs and QJs total, 12 combos of value.
Tough to know if he calls the 4B with AQo, if he doesnt its a bit more of a torch. Also depends if he gets stationy with TT or 99 looking to hero call.
This is a spot where after I bet the turn, I think I have to jam for value. I think Jam is better than check-call as if the do have AQ or KQ or TT/99 that was stationy, I need to put them in a tough position and get paid, otherwise they just jam AA and trips+.
Overall I think that I should check the turn and bet-fold the river, or call turn bet and fold the river.

3) Isolated pot vs fish
PokerStars - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 91.64 BB
MP: 101.36 BB
CO: 137.6 BB
Hero (BTN): 100 BB
SB: 203.96 BB
BB: 348 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has K♠ J♦

UTG calls 1 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 4 BB, fold, fold, UTG calls 3 BB

Flop: (9.4 BB, 2 players) T♦ Q♥ Q♦
UTG checks, Hero bets 4.48 BB, UTG calls 4.48 BB

Turn: (18.36 BB, 2 players) 2♥
UTG checks, Hero bets 13.16 BB, UTG raises to 26.32 BB, Hero calls 13.16 BB

River: (71 BB, 2 players) A♥
UTG bets 56.84 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 56.84 BB

Fish limps and calls, can have pretty much any 2 cards.
I barrel turn with an OESD even on a paired flop, I face a minraise, which is very strong, likely to be Qx or AT at minimum. Given pot odds I need 19%, I figured I have 8 outs that are clean, and sometimes I can hit a pair and villain will check back and I'll win.
If I hit my draw I dont think villain will ever fold trips, so I thought it was a call.
Once I hit the straight, I dont think I can fold to a jam, Its very possible I am not ahead. Vs a larger raise I think I can fold, but not vs min raise on turn.

1. wp, I would maybe just bet river a bit bigger as we virtually always have the best hand here and our line looks bluffy, think Qx pays off. Maybe block induces though

2. just a cooler, we have KK overpair in a 4bet pot and didnt get raised anywhere, if hit a boat or trips then were getting stacked

3. I would cbet small and x turn vs fish, I cannot see a limp caller folding anything on that turn that they called flop with. river we have to call as we beat value

KK feels too thin imo UTG vs CO.

He shouldn't have AQo and even KQs/TT/99 may be folding to the 4bet, especially at these stakes where people under-4bet.
You're also blocking KQss and KQhh, leaving KQdd as the only possible combo.

I'm checking turn.

He shouldn't have AQo but wouldn't be surprised to see it. TT/99 should be in, 99 is almost a pure call and TT mixed but if people are calling 99 they'll call TT. T9s is also pure calling the 4bet if he 3bet that pre.

Not saying you are wrong for turn x, I think it's very close and did worry that we are UTG

It is very thin but look at the spr, I think turn check is better, unless against some kind of fish, but I think check-call is even worse on river if you bet the turn, you just pay him off as people will check back all those hands mentioned and surely check-fold river cannot be the play.

yeah agree, people if deeper will call a 4B with 99 and TT very often in my experience, at least most regs. AQo should fold, but it doesnt always in the pool, it's a bad call but it's one i've seen the pool make as you said.

Turn check allows him to fire off more bluffs, I guess because I block KQs so heavily, it might be a better check. Sucky spot really.

First Week of March Update:

The upswing is pure, hopefully i can sunrun for a while

Some hands:

1) In theory this should not jam as a bluff on river, but is it bad exploitatively?
PokerStars - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players

SB: 113.32 BB
BB: 116.76 BB
UTG: 101.4 BB
CO: 112.2 BB
Hero (BTN): 106.64 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 3♠ 3♣

fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.48 BB, SB raises to 11 BB, fold, Hero calls 8.52 BB

Flop: (23 BB, 2 players) 8♠ T♥ 9♠
SB checks, Hero bets 7.24 BB, SB calls 7.24 BB

Turn: (37.48 BB, 2 players) 6♦
SB checks, Hero bets 19.2 BB, SB calls 19.2 BB

River: (75.88 BB, 2 players) 4♦
SB checks, Hero bets 69.2 BB and is all-in, SB calls 69.2 BB

Starts off with a low frequency call to 3B, I could pure fold, this hand is 0ev, but I rolled a call.
The flop absolutely smashes my range, I think it's fine to overstab this flop, vs most 3B ranges, they are super overcard heavy, and play pretty face up, i.e xR if have set/straight.
On turn I think I can barrel, I have way more 7x than villain, and expect him to start jamming straights, maybe sets.
On river I have no showdown, I think I can rep 2pr+ pretty well, and can fold out K9, A9, Q9, AT, KT, QT type hands, I think I can fold out overpairs too, at least at some frequency. I don't block any missed fd's (apart from A3s which most dont 3b). All-in all, I think it's a pretty good bluff candidate.

2) Tough spot to herocall vs fish, I think I'm pretty indifferent, solver says mix, I think I mostly agree
PokerStars - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players

BTN: 200.44 BB
Hero (SB): 153.04 BB
BB: 100 BB
UTG: 103 BB
CO: 100.68 BB

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has K♣ Q♥

UTG raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 12 BB, fold, UTG calls 10 BB

Flop: (25 BB, 2 players) 2♦ 8♥ Q♦
Hero bets 11.96 BB, UTG calls 11.96 BB

Turn: (48.92 BB, 2 players) A♠
Hero checks, UTG bets 18 BB, Hero calls 18 BB

River: (84.92 BB, 2 players) 5♠
Hero checks, UTG bets 61.04 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 61.04 BB

I 3B an aggrofish, I think flop is standard c-bet, I get a nasty turn for my exact hand, but relatively good for my range, x-call I think is fine ott, vs some player types I can start mixing folds. otr I thought this might be an overbluffed spot by this player type, villain can have 88, AQ, A8s, A5s for value on river (maybe 22), but given that fish like to bluff their missed flush draws, and might turn low pocket pairs into bluffs I opted to call. In retrospect I think it's a bit closer than I thought at the time.

Nice graph and volume!

H1 - I do the same, good for him if he stations overpairs, we make a note

H2 - I fold riv, I think it’s closer if he was CO or BTN but against UTG he has too much Ax I think. Not a bad call vs a fish though after we x/c turn

Mid March Update

The sun run is on! I think I'm running well overall, but in all-ins I am winning flips like a proper MTT pro.

I think in general I have played pretty well, at least for my current ability level (executing my strategy well), apart from my last session. I, for some reason, was in a very aggro mood, taking the high variance lines often, 3betting more ect. I think I ran poorly in terms of hand distribution, but there is likely 200bb or so I coudlve saved by folding/not taking the splashy line.
Not getting in as many hands as I would like, but it should be possible to hit like ~25k hands by the end of the month which I think is ok.
I could take some NL50 shots now, some rakeback isnt accounted for in the graph.
I don't think I am playing my best right now, so I think I'll give it a session or two, then take a 5BI shot.
I think I am still too stationy, there are a couple spots where Im trying to fold hard, spots that Qing Yang outlined in a video where he explains that certain spots OOP should be bluffing almost his entire range, and so it's hard to overbluff, realistically if population is bluffing some hands at a mixed frequency, theyre likely underbluffing.
So that's where I am trying to fold as much as possible.

I need to spend some more time working on river calls, and I also think I need to work on following through after turn overbets - often I am just guessing after overbetting turn and just randomising if I have decent blockers.
I think solver likes to turn low-mid pairs into bluffs, also considering suits if bdfd misses or hits ect.

Anyway, a hand I marked out(more later this month):

1) 3bet pot, SB vs BTN
PokerStars - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players

UTG: 64.68 BB
CO: 103.24 BB
BTN: 106.68 BB
Hero (SB): 228.64 BB
BB: 127.6 BB

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Q♦ K♦

fold, fold, BTN raises to 2.48 BB, Hero raises to 12 BB, fold, BTN calls 9.52 BB

Flop: (25 BB, 2 players) K♠ 8♣ 6♦
Hero bets 17.92 BB, BTN calls 17.92 BB

Turn: (60.84 BB, 2 players) 5♥
Hero bets 19.16 BB, BTN calls 19.16 BB

River: (99.16 BB, 2 players) J♦
Hero checks, BTN bets 57.6 BB and is all-in, fold

BTN wins 94.68 BB

vs 99% of the pool I think this is horrible and im a nit, but vs this guy, he has 20% river bet over 500 hands, and a mid-70 WSD, the sample may be small, but I think the J river is bad, and given the action I rarely am ahead. I dont think villain jams KTs, or bluffs T9,98, 99, 67, 54 ect. In hindsight, I think block-fold is better, as it may be more likely for villain to jam than to raise-jam a block bet (for this player type).
Maybe this is too tight? I did not see any river bluffs, no obvious missed draws. Value wise villain could have KJ (rivered 2pr, sets, 65s, maybe even some AK, some AA. Bluffing 77 and 87 pure, he would have 6+3=9 combos of bluffs, which is quite a lot, but given KJs (2), 88,66,55 (9), JJ (i dont think he'd fold to the turn pure) for a few combos and then adding some AA, AK I think its close. Pot odds wise I need 27%, which could be easy vs some players but given that my read was that villain was underbluffing, I think this is marginal call or slightly losing however I am aware of it being BTN vs SB.
I also thought I could mix some B75 on this board, but I guess the 8 and 6 connect too well? So it looks like B33 B50 mix. I was using the same heuristic as SB vs MP, but I guess I have to bet smaller due to wider ranges SB vs BTN. It looks like solver prefers B75 on K-Broadway-Low flops SB v BTN

End of March Update
Ran super hot this month at 25nl, please see the graph here:

Unfortunately 50nl did not go so well, taking some shots:

I think I will look to win 10BI at 25nl then take 5 BI shot at 50nl. I don't think game is harder, just played some hands poorly and some typical coolers AK

Some hands:
1)
PokerStars - $0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players

Hero (CO): 125.24 BB
BTN: 105.26 BB
SB: 80.58 BB
BB: 132.34 BB
UTG: 124.58 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A♠ J♠

UTG raises to 2.5 BB, Hero raises to 8.5 BB, fold, SB calls 8 BB, fold, UTG calls 6 BB

Flop: (26.5 BB, 3 players) A♦ 3♠ Q♣
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets 8.3 BB, SB calls 8.3 BB, fold

Turn: (43.1 BB, 2 players) K♣
SB bets 24 BB, Hero calls 24 BB

River: (91.1 BB, 2 players) Q♠
SB bets 39.78 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 39.78 BB

Vs this river sizing I did call vs fish, fish can overbluff, but I think Qx hits him too hard, its tougher to fold though vs guys who can also have KT suited and offsuit, and other janky combos for this sizing.

2)
Pros and cons of turn shove vs smaller bet?
PokerStars - $0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players

SB: 56.22 BB
BB: 123.9 BB
UTG: 100 BB
CO: 225.94 BB
Hero (BTN): 109 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K♥ K♠

UTG raises to 2.5 BB, CO raises to 7.5 BB, Hero raises to 18 BB, fold, fold, fold, CO calls 10.5 BB

Flop: (40 BB, 2 players) Q♥ 5♠ 3♥
CO checks, Hero bets 12.54 BB, CO calls 12.54 BB

Turn: (65.08 BB, 2 players) J♠
CO checks, Hero bets 28.4 BB, CO calls 28.4 BB

River: (121.88 BB, 2 players) Q♦
CO checks, Hero checks

I'm fine with losing the pot, just thinking if there are more advantages to small OB shove turn vs bet-jam river.

3) Maybe bigger size on river?
PokerStars - $0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

CO: 100 BB
BTN: 100 BB
Hero (SB): 193.14 BB
BB: 349.26 BB
UTG: 180.82 BB
MP: 213.76 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 5♥ 4♥

fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, BB raises to 9 BB, Hero calls 6 BB

Flop: (18 BB, 2 players) T♦ 6♥ 7♦
Hero checks, BB checks

Turn: (18 BB, 2 players) 9♦
Hero bets 12.82 BB, BB calls 12.82 BB

River: (43.64 BB, 2 players) K♣
Hero bets 32.3 BB, BB calls 32.3 BB

Low vol but i've been studying a lot, I think that doing a lot of off the table work is going to benefit me more since im still not where I want to be skill wise.

Mid-April Update
25nl

50nl

50nl shot looking good this month! I feel like I'm making some good progress, I just need to put the volume in. I think my game is fairly strong for 50nl, I don't wanna get my ego overinflated since I am on a heater - but I think I can be cautiously optimistic.
I think I've gotten over my mental block at 50nl where it felt like I couldn't win.

Either way, just need to put my head down and grind now. I can always study more, but right now I think I need to put some time into building a roll to shoot 100nl.
I also like having a larger roll since it alleviates pressure and stops my need for immediate results.

Let's see how the rest of the month goes!

End of April Update
25 and 50nl mixed:

Low vol but a nice heater, had some health issues that limited my grinding.
My goal for this month is to play about 1k hands a day, aiming for 30k hands by the end of the month.
I'll update this thread weekly this month just to make sure I am hitting decent volume.

I made a few terrible plays this month, especially in the second half of the month but in general I think I have played relatively well.
I'm struggling to implement B125 flop strategies on some boards. I cant really balance 4 flop sizings on boards like KJ5tt.
The more I dig into the solver, the more I realise I need to start simplifying, but I'm not sure how to go about it and make sure I'm not losing much EV.
As I move away from B33 rangebet on most boards, to playing overbet or check on some boards, B75 or check on some boards, and of course still some B33 and B50. I think I might need to get some coaching from a theory guy soon just so I can understand how to build simplifications that dont lose much ev. Should I just cut down to the solvers 2 most frequent sizings and cut out the lower two (in the case of KJ5tt)?
There is so much more I have to learn, I don't feel like I have a comprehensive enough gameplan to go about studying.

Week 1 of May Vol Goal Update:

Vol is alright, I wanna pick it up a bit, will try grind like 2k hands a day during the weekend.
Play quality is lower, I'm not sure how many bb/100 Im losing from A game, or if it's just in my head.
A bit more autopiloting, but in general I think I have played ok.
I am feeling the variance this month, not just in terms of losing some flips, but also in terms of being put in spots that I find tougher.

Hand 1: Indifferent spot vs fish
PokerStars - $0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players

Hero (SB): 237.38 BB
BB: 73.32 BB
CO: 196.42 BB
BTN: 96.5 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q♦ A♦

fold, BTN raises to 2 BB, Hero raises to 11 BB, fold, BTN raises to 30 BB, Hero raises to 237.38 BB and is all-in, BTN calls 66.5 BB and is all-in

Flop: (194 BB, 2 players) 4♥ Q♥ 8♥

Turn: (194 BB, 2 players) 9♠

River: (194 BB, 2 players) J♣

Players agreed to run it twice.

Flop #2: (194 BB, 2 players) 4♠ Q♣ 2♥

Turn #2: (194 BB, 2 players) T♥

River #2: (194 BB, 2 players) 8♦

How do you guys deal with strange/larger 4B sizings, I don't come across it too often but some fish like to size up. I like to shove more on them since theres more dead money and I dont wanna call (to realise my equity)vs such a size, I lean more to shove or fold. Generally fish under 4B so I will run into the nuts often, but in the moment I decided that AQs was too strong to fold.
Thoughts?

His 4b sizing is huge. It's pretty easy fold imo

What helped me sneak a tad more volume is just add 1 or 2 more tables. If there are no good ones, consider starting one. For me, starting tables usually ends up bringing at least 2 but sometimes 3-4 fish before any regs notice.

Do you think this is just AA,KK,QQ AK from fish ? I know fish dont 4b much but in the moment I thought there can be some garbage in there too. Vs a fish 4Bing this size would you play a shove or fold strat against that size?

I'll try starting some tables to pump the vol thanks for the tip

Yeah basically. They don’t 4bp enough usually and when they size up it’s a bit of red flag.

If you see regs sitting your empty table before fish it could be a signal to how much they respect your game. It may seem more tables might take away from your overall focus but the idea is to try to get Rec heavy tables so decisions shouldn’t be that hard to keep up with and +EV lineup in general

Thanks for the answers! I think a lot of regs in my pool just sitout when it's just regs on a table, seems like a good idea to sit and get the fish going to you