2NLz to 200NLz in 2024?
Hi!
I'm a very long-time social / rec player (10+ years of playing once a month, sometimes less) starting to learn poker strategy properly, with a lot more time to invest.
About 2 weeks into taking poker more seriously and thought I'd start a thread here to track my own progress.
I have about 30hrs/wk available. I plan on spending my time 60-70% studying, 30-40% playing.
Playing mostly on GG.
Study Plan
I've hired a coach to help get me pointed in the right direction and help me grasp concepts, but I'm also spending a lot of time myself. Had my first hour session today, will have another later this week.
I do "okay" at constructing ranges (e.g. I can find and prioritize the best bluffs in a spot), and understanding where to find bluffs even in more difficult spots (and today it clicked that this is for example an easy exploit in micro stakes, knowing where most other players won't find bluffs). I understand the common math concepts. I'm just now trying to figure out frequencies (and patterns to them) as a whole.
Daily...
30m - Review preflop ranges daily (currently very accurate on RFI, still improving on 3bet/4bet accuracy)
1h - Hand review. If I've flagged hands (need to do this more) I'll dive in. Otherwise, I upload to GTOWizard, sort by biggest EV mistakes, and try to find hands where I can't justify my deviation. I'll try to ask myself questions about these and dive in to find relevant heuristics/answers.
1h - Try to find new heuristics. Right now, I'm trying to find patterns in how GTO decides on frequencies.
1h - Consume general strategy content (videos, etc), make notes, validate concepts by finding the patterns myself with gtowizard to set it in, etc.
0.5h++ Play! Often this is more like 1h-3h. Mostly 2 tabling zoom.
Every week I'll revisit this study plan, figure out what's working and what needs to change.
Bankroll Strategy
I will infinitely reload +$20 as needed if I go bust. Hasn't happened yet.
Move up: 20bi at previous stake + 3bi at new stake
Move down: 20bi at previous stake
At 25NL I'll change to a 40bi strategy before moving up. If I'm somehow completely crushing the game I might be willing to slightly lower that.
Also planning on starting a separate roll for live and injecting some cash once I'm confident I'm winning at 10NL+.
Starting balance was $20
Current balance is $30
The more I understand the less I expect to be winning, but the more confident I feel that I'll get there. Here's my graph, includes about 6k hands of 5NL starting just before the peak.
Goals
All zoom (rush & cash on GG).
50NL by end of April
100NL by end of August
200NL by end of December
I know this is very ambitious. I can put in a lot more volume on the weekends, but will sometimes take a day off so I don't burn out. Aiming for the toughest rush and fold games is because I genuinely enjoy the challenge of poker, strategy, etc. If I want to make a big profit, I'll play more live 😀
I plan on posting daily updates for now, occasionally with bankroll / hand histories, often with what I'm studying.
Any feedback/advice would be greatly appreciated!
Nice read, good luck Matt!
Super busy with work so not much progress. Study wise, I've realized I need to focus on multi way as I mix in more live. I found a few videos but don't have a lot of content on this available to me.
E.g. I know 33% is more common sizing wise, I don't know the why.
Live has been fun… I’ve been sun running… this weekend:
In 20k out 190k (50/100)
In 60k, out 0 (50/100), in 40 mins…
100 = $3, this is quite a big game compared to local economy but also the smallest available.
I’ve shown down a few times now with big overbets both for value and bluffs. Some people are calling more so I’ve adjusted by bluffing less and overbetting for value thinner.
Big loss in my last session was 2 pair getting all in on the flop and counterfeit, so was about 70% equity there. I cut the session really short because I was very tired and just didn’t want to rebuy.
Busy on the next 2 weekends, and work keeps me busy during the week, so 3 weeks before I play more live.
It’s become very apparent that very few others are willing to bluff in big pots, and it’s been getting me paid.
Everyone gets something on GG at least.
Most sites have a slightly different approach. On GGPoker there's a few elements:
1. Events (e.g. we had a big Christmas then New Years event that added at least 10% in EV to my rakeback during December & January)
2. Fish Buffet - Either RNG "loot crate" style, or flat %. This % is multiplied by the Player Value Index on GG (e.g. are you a losing player).
3. GG Cares - Flipout tournament tickets daily based on big pots won or big pots lost where you were the e
The Killer Whale Fishbuffet reward "cashback" is nowhere near the advertised "up to 50%" for any winning player, like probably anyone who's been on GG for some time knows. I just checked my last 7 days rake attributed from PT4 and compared it to the amount I collected today. My cashback percentage is 18.4 and I'm nowhere near destroying the stakes I play at. Granted, I've been sun running the last week, so it might have shrinked my PVI a bit lower than it was in January. Total I've been getting back 1.49 BB/100 since I started playing R/C a few weeks ago.
The leaderboards I've never even attempted, simply cannot and will not 4-table rush at this point, probably never will. Takes the fun out of the game playing it in a button clicking mode instead of actually and actively using your brain, but that's just my opinion and style. It does make many of the leaderboard grinders super easy to play against though - few people are able to use their best judgment during the last hours of such sessions and most of them go to ABC-mode.
Anyways, GL MattD1, subbed..
I haven't been following up much here, haven't had much to share.
In short:
- Super busy with work.
- Playing live, running insanely well.
- I try to note 1-2 live hands and review every session, but not getting much study other than that at the moment.
- Pretty much 0 online volume.
Up mid 5 figures in USD this past month over ~80 hours, still not really sure if I'm beating 2nl or 5nl Rush & Cash though...
Updates will be much less frequent, maybe once or twice a month, but hoping to have some online progress, more study, and maybe even a graph update for online in the next month.
Doubt my initial goal will happen this year at the current pace and getting busier than expected with work, but I'm pretty determined to get there eventually if online poker doesn't die to RTA first 😀
I may not be the best cash game player in the world but just looking at some of your hands and graphs, it reminds me of myself just a short while ago in that I think you have a huge leak: you are just a calling station. I know for a fact you do not need gto and solvers to beat 2nl, 5nl. To put it simply, play abc. It’s boring I know, but many opponents play face up and once you start seeing aggression fold asap. Yes you will get bluffed once in a while but you just have to deal with if. Keep pots small until you have the nuts then you can put money in. Try not to do big triple barrel bluffs as much in these stakes, nice that you’re starting to pick up on that. The lowest I play rn is 5nl and I only really bluff by c betting flop when I miss. Ofc, this changes in higher stakes but you should just focusing on crushing the micros first. Also big tip is I think it’s actually fine to deviate from gto strategy by over calling sometimes. Like if I have pocket 5s in the hj I will call utg even though most people say 3 bet or fold from everywhere but button and bb. Because many pots go multi-way, I try to get see cheap flops and flop a monster to stack a fish’s top pair. Looking at some of your hand reviews, it seems to be the other way around for you lol. But yeah overall your doing great and improving just my 2 cents
I may not be the best cash game player in the world but just looking at some of your hands and graphs, it reminds me of myself just a short while ago in that I think you have a huge leak: you are just a calling station. I know for a fact you do not need gto and solvers to beat 2nl, 5nl. To put it simply, play abc. It’s boring I know, but many opponents play face up and once you start seeing aggression fold asap. Yes you will get bluffed once in a while but you just have to deal with if. Keep pot
You're 100% right. I've kind of always known it, but didn't quite recognize how to correct it -- just calling less isn't great when I don't know which spots to call less.
Playing live has made me a lot better at slowing down and thinking how ranges filter through each action. I try to do it when I'm not in the hand as well for practice, and the slow pace of live helps a lot.
When I have a clear idea of what range I'm against, I do much better at knowing when to call (and when to bluff).
When I'm unsure about calling, and I think it's really close, I randomize 50/50 instead of just flicking in the call, then try to review after to see if it was actually close.
Still a long ways to go, but getting better 😀 It's probably the biggest thing I've improved over the past month.
