$25----->25k Bankroll Challenge on Ignition

10 days - not 5k hands?

Looks like a big success story…

It should also be the format with the most bots per capita.

following, glgl! How long do you expect this challenge to take? To me it seems like its gonna be forever with that volume goal

Lost the 25$ bankroll at sportsbetting?

pm me - I will stake you for 5 buyins at NL5 (but we have to do a contract that you play a massive 5k hands a week)

following , gl OP.Seems like a fun challenge!

I've been behind on this challenge since I changed my coaching rates from $100---->$50. I've had an influx of new students so this challenge will probably take a bit longer than expected.

Not quite 5k hands but I wanted to get this in before May 1st. Will update at 10k hands.

5nl results

Spoiler

Show

See you at 10k.

Some HH's that illustrate important concepts vs fish. Remember, how you play fish is the single most important contributor to your winrate.

HH#1.

How do we know he is a fish? If you raise in UTG/HJ and your opponent calls preflop in the CO. On average he is a fish ~72% of the time if you have no other information (you can figure this out using Bayes Theorem).

Mandatory call down OTR even if his bet "looks value heavy."

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 0.05(BB)
HERO ($5) [VPIP: 29.2% | PFR: 24.2% | AGG: 36.7% | Flop Agg: 41.5% | Turn Agg: 34% | River Agg: 37.5% | 3Bet: 11.4% | 4Bet: 13.9% | Hands: 334707]
HJ ($1.23) [VPIP: 68.2% | PFR: 4.5% | AGG: 14.7% | Hands: 22]
CO ($5) [VPIP: 53.8% | PFR: 23.1% | AGG: 50% | Flop Agg: 80% | Turn Agg: 100% | River Agg: 100% | 3Bet: 33.3% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 33.3% | Hands: 13]
BTN ($2.18) [VPIP: 46.2% | PFR: 15.4% | AGG: 12.5% | Flop Agg: 25% | Turn Agg: 0% | River Agg: 14.3% | 3Bet: 13.3% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 29.4% | Hands: 39]
SB ($5.14) [VPIP: 12.8% | PFR: 10.3% | AGG: 60% | Hands: 39]
BB ($3.25) [VPIP: 31.6% | PFR: 21.1% | AGG: 25.9% | Hands: 39]

Dealt to Hero: T♠ 8♠

HERO Raises To $0.15, HJ Folds, CO Calls $0.10, BTN Calls $0.15, SB Folds, BB Folds

Hero SPR on Flop: [3.9 effective]
Flop ($0.52): 9♠ T♥ 9♥
HERO Bets $0.13 (Rem. Stack: $4.72), CO Calls $0.13 (Rem. Stack: $4.72), BTN Calls $0.13 (Rem. Stack: $1.90)

Turn ($0.91): 9♠ T♥ 9♥ K♣
HERO Checks, CO Bets $0.55 (Rem. Stack: $4.17), BTN Folds, HERO Calls $0.55 (Rem. Stack: $4.17)

River ($2.01): 9♠ T♥ 9♥ K♣ 3♠
HERO Checks, CO Bets $0.57 (Rem. Stack: $3.60), HERO Calls $0.57 (Rem. Stack: $3.60)

HH#2:

Another call down spot. Even though Ax is a bad data point and he bet big (remember we even call down an overbet here since fish OB bluff in this line), fish have too many air combos in range. Most people would fold here.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.05(BB)
HERO ($11.80) [VPIP: 29.2% | PFR: 24.2% | AGG: 36.7% | Flop Agg: 41.5% | Turn Agg: 34% | River Agg: 37.5% | 3Bet: 11.4% | 4Bet: 13.9% | Hands: 334707]
BB ($1.50) [VPIP: 28.6% | PFR: 28.6% | AGG: 20% | Hands: 7]
HJ ($6.58) [VPIP: 32% | PFR: 28% | AGG: 54.5% | Hands: 25]
CO ($6.21) [VPIP: 9.1% | PFR: 4.5% | AGG: 25% | Hands: 22]
BTN ($4.02) [VPIP: 28.6% | PFR: 14.3% | AGG: 50% | Flop Agg: 50% | Turn Agg: 50% | River Agg: 50% | 3Bet: 40% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 22]

Dealt to Hero: 7♦ 7♥

HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Calls $0.05, HERO Raises To $0.35, BB Folds, BTN Calls $0.30

Hero SPR on Flop: [4.89 effective]
Flop ($0.75): 6♣ 9♦ A♣
HERO Bets $0.18 (Rem. Stack: $11.27), BTN Calls $0.18 (Rem. Stack: $3.49)

Turn ($1.11): 6♣ 9♦ A♣ 5♠
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $0.25 (Rem. Stack: $3.24), HERO Calls $0.25 (Rem. Stack: $11.02)

River ($1.61): 6♣ 9♦ A♣ 5♠ K♦
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $1.53 (Rem. Stack: $1.71), HERO Calls $1.53 (Rem. Stack: $9.49)

HH#3.

A spot I am unsure about. I have been studying overbet donk leads and they seem to be overbluffed but it's not clear to me yet if I should continue OTF vs this over 2x pot donk lead. Will post results tomorrow.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.05(BB)
HERO ($9.70) [VPIP: 29.2% | PFR: 24.2% | AGG: 36.7% | Flop Agg: 41.5% | 3Bet: 11.4% | 4Bet: 13.9% | Hands: 334707]
BTN ($1.49) [VPIP: 68.2% | PFR: 4.5% | AGG: 14.7% | Flop Agg: 7.1% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 53.8% | Hands: 22]
SB ($5.28) [VPIP: 53.8% | PFR: 23.1% | AGG: 50% | Flop Agg: 80% | 3Bet: 33.3% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 33.3% | Hands: 13]
BB ($3.14) [VPIP: 46.2% | PFR: 15.4% | AGG: 12.5% | Flop Agg: 25% | 3Bet: 13.3% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 29.4% | Hands: 39]
UTG ($5) [VPIP: 12.8% | PFR: 10.3% | AGG: 60% | Hands: 39]
HJ ($4.90) [VPIP: 31.6% | PFR: 21.1% | AGG: 25.9% | Hands: 39]

Dealt to Hero: A♣ 4♣

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, HERO Raises To $0.10, BTN Calls $0.10, SB Calls $0.08, BB Calls $0.05

Hero SPR on Flop: [3.48 effective]
Flop ($0.40): 8♣ 4♦ 2♠
SB Bets $0.91 (Rem. Stack: $4.27), BB Folds, HERO Folds, BTN Folds

See you tomorrow.

Wow - your such a great player (great to see no cherrypicking in your HH‘s - lol)

can you please elaborate on this, showing all the inputs please

Apologize for the brutal honesty but not a fan of people taking credit for others work and noticing pattern here from you. Despite it appearing you took a backer’s stake money and lost it sportsbetting I am all for second chances in life. That said, you should be careful passing off other’s information acting like it is your own.

The 72% number utilized is the same used by the head of a stable you were under correct? Below is Saulo Costa explaining:

https://youtu.be/ukb4jIFk0cE?si=vtfgJlDO...

Also think it’s great you are getting into coaching, but probably good idea to be transparent the MDA data you are showing students comes from the previous stable you were under as well.

For the record genuinely wish you no ill will and believe you will annihilate micro stakes - if you’re planning to continue coaching career for lower stake players makes sense to get playing experience at that level. Just think it would be wise to be transparent moving forward.

Yes Saulo Costa was the head coach of my old stable so it makes sense I am using his data to come to some of my conclusions.

I tell all my students exactly where the MDA comes from. I am not passing off anything as my own. Also some of the MDA I use is not from Metagame and is data I directly paid for (instead of indirectly paying for it via CFP).

You can't get more transparent than a bankroll challenge and you didn't even give me a chance to respond to rickroll since I was going to link that video as well.

One more note about data ownership. The chain of custody is not black and white like you are portraying. All the data from the CFP stables are from bought HH's and HH's that are from students/prior students. How do you think these guys have 245 million hand databases? Obviously they bought HH's which is against terms of service. So if you want to get very technical the data doesn't belong to the stables, instead they are curating and analyzing the raw data and passing it along to the students.

The link DaPats55 posted will give you a better answer than I can.

Also note. Something the video doesn't go over but we can calculate by using Saulo's same data is that if a player cold calls the BTN and we are UTG/HJ/CO, the likelihood of that person being a fish without knowing any other information is around ~49%.

All stables use the horses HHs as material for doing range research right? Which is against the ToS anyway, and DooDoo using that data to coach people at very reasonable prices is not worse by any means than what they do. Best, it's actually a way to negate some of the "unfair" advantage stables have when they can use illegal means we average joes can't.

And Peter Clarke also has a course specifically based on MDA (Grade E) where he delivers actual MDA data also at a very reasonable price, and you don't even need to build pop ups, reports and stats on H2N nor buy HHs and server time 😀

The poker sites lost this battle already.

Another really important concept to understand that will boost your winrate vs fish.

1. Deviate preflop from a solver, you need to be 3betting wider than what a solver would do because we will play better than fish postflop.

2. Cbet range (they are too wide preflop and under xr flops) OTF for small always. We go small because we want to have higher SPR's for later streets.

3. You bet smaller OTR than a solver would when you have thin value. Theoretically you shouldn't be betting B33/B50 OTR in this spot for value (because you can just X back and realize equity) but we are inducing because the XR is overbluffed.

HH to explain this:

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.05(BB)
HERO ($5) [VPIP: 29.2% | PFR: 24.2% | AGG: 36.7% | Flop Agg: 41.5% | Turn Agg: 34% | River Agg: 37.6% | 3Bet: 11.4% | Fold to 3Bet: 60.2% | 4Bet: 13.9% | Hands: 334825]
CO ($5.07) [VPIP: 27.3% | PFR: 27.3% | AGG: 75% | Hands: 13]
BTN ($7.60) [VPIP: 33.3% | PFR: 20% | AGG: 75% | Hands: 17]
SB ($3.68) [VPIP: 100% | PFR: 100% | AGG: 20% | Flop Agg: 0% | Turn Agg: 0% | River Agg: 100% | 3Bet: 100% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 2]

Dealt to Hero: K♣ 7♦

CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Raises To $0.15, HERO Raises To $0.45, SB Calls $0.30

Hero SPR on Flop: [3.59 effective]
Flop ($0.90): 5♦ 5♣ 6♣
SB Checks, HERO Bets $0.21 (Rem. Stack: $4.34), SB Calls $0.21 (Rem. Stack: $3.02)

Turn ($1.32): 5♦ 5♣ 6♣ 2♥
SB Checks, HERO Checks

River ($1.32): 5♦ 5♣ 6♣ 2♥ 7♠
SB Checks, HERO Bets $0.63 (Rem. Stack: $3.71), SB Raises To $3.02 (allin), HERO Calls $2.39 (Rem. Stack: $1.32)

Always call this XR (it's not close) because we induced the XR by betting smaller OTR.

I like the K7

Thoughts on ranging small on flops OOP vs fish?

I always thought we 3b polarized to not get wrecked by 4-bets and there's good fold equity. If 3-betting K7o is better than calling, what hands are we better off flatting?

Linear hands that don’t want to face a 4b, like KJs, QTs, etc. I don’t think a polarized 3 betting strategy performs as well as just using a linear strategy at micros, since a big pool leak is under 4 betting.

I would range vs fish as OOP PFR on higher boards or polarized boards like monotone boards. Not on lower boards since they will overcall.

This is a good question I need to think about more. I would say hands that are high frequency 3bets in a solver like A2o/A3o are better off flatting than 3betting because fish won't usually fold any Ax.

A hand that normally flats as BB vs SB RFI that you should always 3bet is KQo since a lot of dominated hands will call you.

Since fish have a low fold to 3bet% you want to avoid reverse implied odd hands like A5s/A4s even though a solver is always 3betting those. I'd move those into the flat range and move KQo/KJo into the 3bet range. I'd have to look at exact range composition for SB 3bet calling range but I am assuming Fish are calling a hand like A6o much more often than K6o so 3betting weaker Kx will be better than weaker Ax.

Cool question.

I ran a preflop node-lock a few months back with SB under-4betting, and I remember the BB 3bet range being wider (like 25%), but more linear.
If I remember correctly, hands like 66+, ATo+, KJo+ were pure 3bets.

Same with BB iso vs SB limp. In GTO, it is polar, because we fear the limp/3bet. But vs fish that rarely limp/3bet, we go wider and more linear.

Yeah the 3betting linear strategy makes sense to me as well.

If we are using max MDA exploits vs fish we could probably profitably 3bet ATC since we are printing in the river node in every line.

This is obviously high variance, but very viable.

Another spot where we need to deviate from a solver but also notice solver outputs.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 0.05(BB)
HERO ($5.18) [VPIP: 29.2% | PFR: 24.2% | AGG: 36.7% | Flop Agg: 41.5% | Turn Agg: 34% | River Agg: 37.6% | 3Bet: 11.5% | Fold to 3Bet: 60.2% | 4Bet: 13.9% | Hands: 334934]
SB ($5.86) [VPIP: 15% | PFR: 10% | AGG: 40% | Hands: 20]
BB ($1.42) [VPIP: 20% | PFR: 20% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 15]
UTG ($7.98) [VPIP: 10% | PFR: 5% | AGG: 50% | Hands: 20]
HJ ($3.34) [VPIP: 25% | PFR: 10% | AGG: 14.3% | Hands: 20]
CO ($4.80) [VPIP: 35% | PFR: 30% | AGG: 18.2% | Flop Agg: 25% | Turn Agg: 0% | River Agg: 33.3% | 3Bet: 14.3% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 20]

Dealt to Hero: X X

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Raises To $0.13, HERO Raises To $0.39, SB Folds, BB Folds, CO Calls $0.26

Hero SPR on Flop: [5.19 effective]
Flop ($0.85): 7♠ 2♦ Q♠
CO Checks, HERO Bets $0.27 (Rem. Stack: $4.52), CO Calls $0.27 (Rem. Stack: $4.14)

Turn ($1.39): 7♠ 2♦ Q♠ 4♠
CO Checks, HERO Checks

River ($1.39): 7♠ 2♦ Q♠ 4♠ 2♥
CO Bets $0.44 (Rem. Stack: $3.70), HERO Raises To $1.10 (Rem. Stack: $3.42), CO Calls $0.66 (Rem. Stack: $3.04)

In this spot there are a few things to notice:

1. The flop is not a range cbet. Uri Peleg talks about this concept in one of his videos but you have to think about what is the hand that CO is basing his strategy around? We know it's suited hands and pocket pairs. The FD will always decrease cbet frequencies for IP.

GTO Wizard output.

2. Turn is bad for us so we X more than average.

3. River is again important. You only jam vs 1/3 river probe sizing in GTO.

GTO Wizard output.

4. This is again where we deviate from a solver, in MDA this is a very overfolded line. But we don't want our opponent to fold 7x/88/99/TT/weak Qx when we have value.

A. We raise bigger/jam with air as a default
B. We raise smaller with value as a default

Actual HH.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 0.05(BB)
HERO ($5.18) [VPIP: 29.2% | PFR: 24.2% | AGG: 36.7% | Flop Agg: 41.5% | Turn Agg: 34% | River Agg: 37.6% | 3Bet: 11.5% | Fold to 3Bet: 60.2% | 4Bet: 13.9% | Hands: 334934]
SB ($5.86) [VPIP: 15% | PFR: 10% | AGG: 40% | Hands: 20]
BB ($1.42) [VPIP: 20% | PFR: 20% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 15]
UTG ($7.98) [VPIP: 10% | PFR: 5% | AGG: 50% | Hands: 20]
HJ ($3.34) [VPIP: 25% | PFR: 10% | AGG: 14.3% | Hands: 20]
CO ($4.80) [VPIP: 35% | PFR: 30% | AGG: 18.2% | Flop Agg: 25% | Turn Agg: 0% | River Agg: 33.3% | 3Bet: 14.3% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 20]

Dealt to Hero: A♦ A♥

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Raises To $0.13, HERO Raises To $0.39, SB Folds, BB Folds, CO Calls $0.26

Hero SPR on Flop: [5.19 effective]
Flop ($0.85): 7♠ 2♦ Q♠
CO Checks, HERO Bets $0.27 (Rem. Stack: $4.52), CO Calls $0.27 (Rem. Stack: $4.14)

Turn ($1.39): 7♠ 2♦ Q♠ 4♠
CO Checks, HERO Checks

River ($1.39): 7♠ 2♦ Q♠ 4♠ 2♥
CO Bets $0.44 (Rem. Stack: $3.70), HERO Raises To $1.10 (Rem. Stack: $3.42), CO Calls $0.66 (Rem. Stack: $3.04)

Against highly exploitable players we use highly exploitable lines.

thanks i watched it and it had all the inputs i was looking for

fwiw i wasn't trying to "call you out" or anything and had no clue of what was going to ensue after asking that question