$25----->25k Bankroll Challenge on Ignition

Higher stakes regs are not going to give us the right implied odds to play a small pair out of position vs their 3betting range. Less straight combos when we flop a set with 22 and 33.

44-66 block more of BTN's 3bet bluffs.

Bingo.

What about the original question? Any thoughts.

Guessing microstakes regs are too imbalanced and will barrel too much on double BW turns.

Higher stakes regs will do the same but what do higher stakes regs do that microstakes regs don't?

Hint: Think about IP's bluffs.

I don't know the answer to the main question but clearly alt line for 33 is fold flop here.

Fwiw I think I can understand why catching 3 streets is worth considering here (purely from an mda/range perspective, obviously in theory it's complete garbage), but I have no idea why we would or wouldn't vs profiles at different stakes lol.

Why is it garbage in theory though?

What I'm saying is removing or adding even one combo can cause massive swings in either direction, so you need to use some logic in deciding if the sim makes sense in reality. It's most noticeable in 4b pots. I'm not saying that the sim is right or wrong, or that you played the hand good or bad.

1) What range did u assign to villain?
2) Are people just going crazy with bluffs at this stake?

choose their bluffs more selectively OTR and give up with 0EV hands more often when it's due?

Our hand is a below average bluffcatcher with very poor interaction overall. It will lose ev against a balanced opponent and calling this also indicates that our overall strat is very exploitable. It seems pretty straightforward why this call is theoretically losing.

my guess is this bluff catch is better at micro stakes because their value range when jamming is tighter than solver, and they still overbluff the broadway overcard runouts to the board

Yeah but why, you are missing the most important point.

I'll give you a hint. Why is KTs a 0EV bluff catcher but 33 a -15bb bluff catcher?

Once you understand that, you will have your answer.

Also this will bring me to my next point about how you need to fundamentally play the turn differently between a good microstakes reg vs a good midstakes reg.

Yes that is the minor reason, but we are still looking for the major reason.

I'll tell you the reason in a few days if no one gets it and how we should be playing better regs/worse regs and then post some MDA as well.

I mean besides a micro "reg" having QJo (and probably never checking turn or river with it), good regs should find the turn barrel with 5x and the worst pocket pairs so we don't even beat some bluffs.

Against good midstakes reg you can fold (in order of my preference): flop, turn, pre

The mid stakes regs will be bluffing with made hands like 5x some of the time.

33 loses to 5x.
KTs beats 5x and blocks villain's value hands such as AK and KK.

a midstakes reg is going to shove much more thin for value otr, whereas a micro reg probably needs AK+. (also they will barrel some better underpairs). in my pool I would find checkraises on the flop.

btw though I think this is a losing call preflop longterm

I mean yes but 5x will almost never be in a 3b range. You are more worried about underpairs

I don't think the ev of 33 is so low otr because we're losing to pairs being turned into bluffs. I didn't think that, I wizzed the spot, and wiz confirms it's not that. In wiz, we are losing to specifically 54s and 88 a very low percentage of the time, but these aren't driving the large ev difference in calling.

The main driver is just that having Kx is very powerful for bluffcatching, though this is obviously true and not a very interesting fact :p

this isnt a losing call

Did I follow the principle correctly? I'm learning.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 2(BB)
MP2 ($300.89) [VPIP: 44.8% | PFR: 11.9% | AGG: 22.6% | Hands: 67]
HJ ($91.22) [VPIP: 38% | PFR: 4% | AGG: 10.5% | Hands: 50]
CO ($209.45) [VPIP: 30% | PFR: 20% | AGG: 40% | Hands: 11]
BTN ($51) [VPIP: 7.4% | PFR: 7.4% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 27]
HERO ($243.46) [VPIP: 12.9% | PFR: 9.3% | AGG: 29.3% | Flop Agg: 33.6% | Turn Agg: 28.4% | River Agg: 28.4% | 3Bet: 4.4% | 4Bet: 11.2% | Fold to 4Bet: 57.4% | Hands: 301318]
BB ($485.60) [VPIP: 31.7% | PFR: 30.2% | AGG: 58.3% | Flop Agg: 58.8% | Turn Agg: 81.8% | River Agg: 50% | 3Bet: 24% | Fold to 3Bet: 50% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 66]
UTG ($276.64) [VPIP: 14.3% | PFR: 10.4% | AGG: 64.3% | Hands: 78]
EP ($200) [VPIP: 17.9% | PFR: 17.9% | AGG: 31.3% | Hands: 40]
MP1 ($136) [VPIP: 8.3% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 12]

Dealt to Hero: K♥ K♣

UTG Folds, EP Folds, MP1 Folds, MP2 Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, HERO Raises To $6, BB Raises To $20, HERO Raises To $60, BB Calls $40

Hero SPR on Flop: [1.53 effective]
Flop ($120): 4♥ 3♠ 8♣
HERO Checks, BB Bets $38.20 (Rem. Stack: $387.40), HERO Calls $38.20 (Rem. Stack: $145.26)

Turn ($196.40): 4♥ 3♠ 8♣ 9♦
HERO Checks, BB Bets $59.40 (Rem. Stack: $328), HERO Raises To $145.26 (allin), BB Calls $85.86 (Rem. Stack: $242.14)

River ($486.92): 4♥ 3♠ 8♣ 9♦ 2♦

its 0EV. but I think it's losing long term unless you play very well OOP in 3bp, and your opponent is 3 betting within a certain threshold.

I know it's not exactly the same but rate this hand coach. Am I applying the principle of let the people overstab and underfold with big overpair correctly? They're both short and it's 3 handed so SPR is kind of like a 3bet pot.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 2(BB)
EP ($342.97) [VPIP: 28.3% | PFR: 21.7% | AGG: 52.9% | Hands: 47]
MP1 ($250.49) [VPIP: 10.6% | PFR: 10.6% | AGG: 100% | Hands: 47]
MP2 ($259.50) [VPIP: 12.8% | PFR: 6.4% | AGG: 42.9% | Hands: 47]
HJ ($68.06) [VPIP: 44.7% | PFR: 13.2% | AGG: 34.6% | Flop Agg: 40% | Turn Agg: 20% | River Agg: 66.7% | 3Bet: 6.7% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 38]
HERO ($195) [VPIP: 12.9% | PFR: 9.3% | AGG: 29.3% | Flop Agg: 33.7% | Turn Agg: 28.4% | River Agg: 28.4% | 3Bet: 4.4% | 4Bet: 11.2% | Hands: 302498]
BTN ($100) [VPIP: 56.3% | PFR: 31.3% | AGG: 28.6% | Flop Agg: 33.3% | Turn Agg: 33.3% | River Agg: 0% | 3Bet: 25% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 44.4% | Hands: 17]
SB ($198) [VPIP: 12.5% | PFR: 12.5% | AGG: 33.3% | Hands: 8]
BB ($171.96) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 13]
UTG ($307.32) [VPIP: 35.7% | PFR: 32.1% | AGG: 57.1% | Hands: 29]

Dealt to Hero: K♠ K♣

UTG Folds, EP Folds, MP1 Folds, MP2 Folds, HJ Calls $2, HERO Raises To $7, BTN Calls $7, SB Folds, BB Folds, HJ Calls $5

Hero SPR on Flop: [2.54 effective]
Flop ($24): 3♥ 4♥ 8♦
HJ Checks, HERO Checks, BTN Checks

Turn ($24): 3♥ 4♥ 8♦ 9♥
HJ Bets $22.80 (Rem. Stack: $38.26), HERO Raises To $108 (Rem. Stack: $80), BTN Calls $93 (allin), HJ Folds

River ($247.80): 3♥ 4♥ 8♦ 9♥ Q♠

Yes! Exactly, we lose to bluffs so you fold 33 OTR against a good higher stakes reg. Microstakes regs aren't finding non intuitive bluffs like 54s/76s so now we get to call river instead of fold.

The bolded part doesn't make sense though, you have to think about a good midstakes regs tendencies. How do we use their barreling tendencies against them with 33?