A journey - much delayed ($8 to $8888 or quitting poker)

Week #4 2024 09 22: Installed Hand2Notes.
Reviewed winning opponents to help spot my biggest leaks.
First fixes.

• Target VPIP | PFR | WWSF >> 20|8|44
  Previously >> 17 | 06 | 41.5
  Actual Result >> 17 | 10 | 43 Improving - but needs more work
  
  
• Stop using the EV Cash Out function (2600bb lost over previous month! omg, I expected like 300bb)
  Used it twice for 500+bb pots, but otherwise followed through
  

• Hands: 15k
  bb/100: +0.69 It ain't much. But back to back weeks of In Game +EV after struggling - I am proud =)
  BR: In Game +10| Bonus +1650| Weekly Change: +1660 Bing'ed a BBJP - How lucky!
  BR (cumulative): In Game +65| Bonus +2880| Cumulative Change: +2945
  
  Note1: Tilted off 600bb after hitting BBJP (1 misclick, 2 YOLOs)
  Note2: NonSD improved from -7bb/100 to -6bb/100. I am way more risk adverse than I imagined myself.
  

Week #5 2024 09 29: Targets

• Target VPIP | PFR | WWSF >> 20|8|44
  Previously constructed PF Range didn't account for villains opening before my action. So it felt short of targets.
  Possible smaller steps: Bigger River Sizing | Attack lower WWSF villains | Find 2B bluffs post
  
• Stop using the EV Cash Out function (attempt #2)
  
• Avoid playing C game - as I found myself tilting off stacks a couple of times a week.
  I rarely start off playing C game (I guess most people wouldn't). But auto-pilot boredom / fatigue / tilt set in.
  If I am not feeling great / well rested, I wouldn't start. The problem is that I don't realize my game deteriorating mid session.
  Start computer shutdown script 2h10m w alarm at 2hour mark. If after computer restarts I still feel like playing, continue.
  

*just notice previous number for Week#1 was off. Results was better than shown, but won't go back to change it now. It's not a huge difference in the grand scheme of things.

*Cumulative BR Changes: In Game -560 | Bonus +2880 | Overall 2320 Made mistakes back in Week#1 and also with cumulative calc.

Well put together introduction mate. You seem like a winning player. Subbed.

Week #5 2024 09 29: Midweek update
Kids having fun at home - can't really concentrate. So I'll just update midweek.
Target VPIP | PFR | WWSF >> 20|8|44
Actual VPIP | PFR | WWSF >> 19|13|41
WWSF may not reach 44 for awhile - FR Ante goes multiway often and I already find myself quite out of line often
River 2Bet was called 10/11 times (luckily all value) ...
River Bet sizing increased but saw no difference in Fold Equity (just more value)
Maybe a value heavy strategy is just better for this stake
=(

Stop using the EV Cash Out function (attempt #2)
Used it once to finished a BR Challenge with $20 on the line, so I'll allow it

Avoid playing C game
Quite happy with this. Dealt with the bad beats / run bad calmly.
Running -670 bb below EV for the week


Went on wild -800bb swing in 5 minutes span.
Shut down PC, ate ice cream - decided that I still feel like playing and got back half of it.

• 777< 999
  
• AA < A2s
  
• KK < AK
  
• 888 < nut FD
  
• K flush < A flush
  

• I P3B bigger sizing for no reason (just don't want to think?)
  
• I get fixated / annoyed by specific player (how is he holding 700bb stack played VPIP78?)
  

• Played plenty of hands poorly. But we all make mistakes =).
  

Poker can be brutal. But at least it's not combined with bad play >> -EV play + run bad would make for a disastrous week

• -800bb below EV :(
  
• But I am committed to not use the EV Cash Out Function
  
• At least I haven't tilted yet 😀
  
• Nearly 300bb in GGCare Flipout and Got $0 :(
  

10 buy ins below EV. =_____=

Oh I found where the 10 buy ins went.
Not getting help when behind, not holding up (enough) when ahead.

Didn't play great near the end, but not terrible either.
Tons of tough spots. Probably got bluff off of a few pots, nothing went my way.

Highlight of the session - also what made me stop:

• AK < A5s (-25bb)
  
• TT < AT (-50bb)
  
• QQ < AK (-100bb)
  
• AA < AA (-200bb)
  

IN ONE ORBIT TO THE SAME GUY ALL-IN PF.

Much respect to those that do this as a living. The game is so brutal.

I am going to call it a short week. Pretty happy with my play but I don't feel I can continue playing my A game.
Only played 3 days and ended up -12BI below EV.
Also feel like I got the short end of card distribution in addition to the terrible run bad.

Week #5 2024 09 29: Results
Target VPIP | PFR | WWSF >> 20|8|44

• Previously >> 17 | 06 | 41.5
  Actual Result >> 20| 13| 42 Probably acceptable
  
• Stop using the EV Cash Out function
  Achieved - but at a very heavy cost :(
  
• Avoid playing C Game
  Give myself a pad on the back. Considering the circumstances, I play A Game 95% of the week.
  
• Hands: 10k
  bb/100: +2.87 Three weeks of +EV play. 😀
  Happy about that. Actual result ... not so much.
  

Results :
Week # Date Hands| bb/100 | $AI Adj | Bonus | Weekly | EV Since Day 1| Actual
______________________________________________________________________________________
W1 2024 08 29: 12.7k | - 00.60 | - 020 | + 0180 | + 0160 | + 0160 | + 0100
W2 2024 09 08: 19.1k | - 12.90 | - 620 | + 0670 | + 0050 | + 0210 | + 0180
W3 2024 09 15: 19.3k | + 01.0 | + 050 | + 0380 | + 0430 | + 0640 | + 0570
W4 2025 09 22: 15.1k | + 00.7 | + 030 | + 1670 | +1700 | + 2340 | + 2240 << -$50 from EV Cash out in previous weeks>>
W5 2025 09 29: 10.0k | + 02.8 | + 070 | + 0200 | + 0270 | + 2610 | + 2230 <<$330 below EV | 1320bb>> sickening

Any suggestion for good mental rest / exercises?
I remember seeing my graph at -1,500bb below EV at worst. But it was over several months.
-1,300 bb below EV in fewer than 10 sessions is rough.

• To Self:
  
• YOU ONLY LOST $10, IT's NOT THAT BAD
  
• Could've been worse, if tilted maybe -$500 for the week
  
• You knew this was going to happen eventually
  
• From $8 to $3700 (current bankroll) has been mostly drama free
  
• Can always move down to calm yourself
  
• Hit BBJP is WAYYYY +EV overall for the year
  

No playing today. Was doing some stats review and came across a surprising item.
Do you guys have similar experience? Is the rake actually not that bad?
Note:

• I am mindful of the BBJP Tax - I only have 150 hands won where Pot Size is between 30-33 bb
  
• 200bb deep allows for easier registration of GGCare Flipout (I think winning 300bb pots is one criteria)
  
• I try to have at least a registration in GGCare Flipout as I estimate even 1bb registration to be $5+ in EV
  
  • (not a problem on normal playing day, but on busy day, I try to squeeze in play time - register then stop)
    
  
  

Rake - Stat:

• Rake Attributed: 12.3 bb/100
  $2359.26 = 9437 bb
  9437 / 76602 x 100 = 12.3
  
  
  
  
• Bonus Received: 3096
  I enter all my bonuses as 2NL games
  
  
  
• Bonus Received: 1650 (Exclude BBJP)
  I did include the $100 smaller BBJP, as those happen often enough
  
• True Rake After Bonus: 3.71 bb/100
  2360 - 1650 = 710 = 2840 bb
  2840 / 76602 x 100 = 3.71 << Very different from what I hear from others
  
  
• Bonus - by category:
  Buffet $300 roughly 12.8% rakeback ~ wayyyy off form GG's advertised "35%" guess I am not fishy enough
  BBJP $100
  Leaderboard + Mystery Drop: $650
  GGCare Flipout: $600
  
  

Break over, time to get back into it. Here's to some run good for Week #6.

Week #5 2024 10 06: Target

• Categorize flop textures during play:
  
  • Overfolded [default range bet]
    Underfolded [default value bet only]
    Unknown [default baseline flop strategy]
    
  
  
• Refine baseline flop strategy against regs:
  Mindful to avoid old habits w TPGK | TPWK | Draws
  
  
  

Last rant - promise I'll stop and stay positive this week.
Already down another ~200EV 100 hands into the week =D.

• KK P4B v Villain w {F to 3B: 16| F to CB [3BP]: 22 | Hands: 3k}
  Flop: 942r - CBet Overbet JAM 180 into (120).
  He flips over 66 and binged it on the T =___=
  

Nice Rake calculations.
Your rake paid also get affected by your playstyle.
Maybe you play TAG style, not calling vs RFI (besides BB) and doing only 3B/Fold strategy?
And did you play those 76k hands in one month?

• 76k hands played since start of personal challenge + detail bonus record keep: 2024 Aug 29 (5 weeks | ~25 playing days)
  
• Don't think my playstyle affected the rake that much.
  
  • I've seen mostly similar number for rake attributed 11.5-13.5 bb/100
    
  • GG takes rake on 3BP even without flops
    
  
  
• The GGCare Flipout helps- 200bb deep triggers it frequently.
  
  • Had M+ hands of 25NL Rush, it was hard to trigger the registration (the worse your win rate, the easier to trigger)
    
  • Before ITM rate: Roughly 15% (small starting stack) | Registration rate: 75% of days played.
    
  • Now ITM rate: 50% (usually top 1-3 starting stack at table) | Registration rate 99% of days played
    
  
  
  
  
• At 25NL Rush (from memory, might be off)
  
  • Rake Attributed: ~8.5 bb/100
    
  • EV after rake: -2.5 bb/100
    
  • BR grew steadily at ~2 bb/100
    
  • I am guessing bonus was around 5 bb/100
    
  
  
  

Sorry to say it guys. I've failed in one of my leaks. After dropping another 700bb below EV, I am going back to EV cash out. I feel the EV loss is acceptable (rather than having to leave the table and clear my head). I whopping 2,100 bb below EV =____=. At least it's Sunday and the game is super soft.

This is poker - it's brutal. It doesn't get kinder over time or as you move up. Work on your mental game instead of surrendering winrate in EV cashout - that way it pays back two-fold

• 1. Better mental game
  
• 2. Don't cost yourself 1% every all-in pot you have
  

• Better mental game
  Yup, gotta get better at it.
  Strange, bluffing off / bad calling off doesn't bother me at all.
  But ALL-IN bad beats gets to me.
  
• Don't cost yourself 1% every all-in pot you have
  Definitely adds up over time. =(
  

Embarrassing graph, since Day 1 of challenge. But we gotta start somewhere.
-17BI below EV atm
-at least EV is no longer falling down =)

Lots of bad beats: Luckily, got a bunch of it back at the flip out.

BR Milestone Update:

Maybe the run bad was a blessing in disguise.
I know it's a super small sample size, but my game has felt very different.
Taking a few days off from playing but still doing poker stuff was very helpful.
I put on my startup guy hat and questioned everything about my game.

• Why do you play poker?
  
  • Hope to subsidize income in the future (but not stressful, I am fine without it).
    Mostly for the schedule flexibility. Can watch the kids grow.
    I gave myself until April to make it from $8 to $8888 (it was really 1200 to 8888), without changing stake or I'll stop spending so much time on it.
    
    
  
  
• Why FR Ante?
  
  • I am better at it =D.
    Being able to better exploit fish is more important than how you hold your own versus good regs.
    
  
  

Strategically I asked myself very specific questions like these:

• Why buy in 200bb deep?
  
• Why CBet 33 | CBet 50?
  
• Why so few flats PF?
  I found that quite a lot of answers were "heuristic" (that's just what people do) =_____= bad reason
  
  • e.g. We range bet 33 here to put villain in tough spot, having to defend quite wide.
    But how do I achieve that?! He calls now I don't know WTD on the T.
    Does my T action really put V in tough spot?! Do I really have a range adv versus THIS V? What happens if I range check? Bet higher?
    It was a good mental exercise to go through all these spots that I usually autopilot - make sure my reasoning is solid
    
    
  
  Phil Galfond: If everyone plays a spot the same way. Then there's no value in it.
  I am not blasting away and getting wayyyyy out of line.
  But this small reminder helps me to remember, doing an action "because that's what you do" just leads to mediocrity.
  

Title updated

I could just be on a mini heater, but I'll take any confidence boost I can get.
Feel like I've been playing / running well.

Small victory: I am no longer the most losing player in my DB =D

Good start to the week. +10 stacks (8 stacks in EV)

Reaching my target stats:

Lost back 450bbs near the end with some run bad.

• AA < combo draw - all in flip
  combo draw < KK - all in flip
  87 < 88 on [K873]r
  AA < A2 on [972]r villain xR my Cbet, bing'ed a 2 and took me to value town
  

Is this ever a bluff? Could I have saved 60bb?

I stopped my session after another similar hand.
65s flats bn. 4 to the flop.
pot: 18 [T92] flopped a flush. bet 9, called by 2.
pot: 45 [J] off suit. bet 40, got one Fold, the other min click back.
I kicked myself for
a) PF I noted that I shouldn't call mutiway 65s but called anyway =____=
b) Turn I note that x back and call any river is fine, but bet anyway =______=
I ended up folding and quit the session. Went to check DB for similar hands that went to showdown
Mutiway to the flop, monotone - Turn 2B - WTSD... villain had strong flush on 23/24 TPTK+nut Flush Draw on the last.
So maybe... a good fold?

Is this a punt or mandatory bluff OTR? In game I discounted flushes heavily as he was OOP and did not show any aggression.
Maybe T sizing was off? I would've played 22 / 44 / 77 / nut Flush the same way though, so maybe okay?
Now that I look at it again, R sizing is off. If I have 22/44/77 I would bet pot or overbet. =___=.

Quick Update

• Think I've gone a bit overboard with the aggression.
  
• Lost back a few buy ins from peak.
• Had the bad end of card distribution and kept running into it villain's strong range.
• Hope to finish the week with 4 straight weeks of +EV in game.
  
• BR stayed the same as previous post.
  

Week #6 Results - Overall Progress : 3986 / 8888
4 weeks of +EV in game =) Happy with my progress

Week # Date Hands| bb/100 | $AI Adj | Bonus | Weekly | EV Since Day 1| Actual
__________________________________________________ ____________________________________
W1 2024 08 29: 12.7k | - 00.60 | - 020 | + 0180 | + 0160 | + 0160 | + 0100
W2 2024 09 08: 19.1k | - 12.90 | - 620 | + 0670 | + 0050 | + 0210 | + 0180
W3 2024 09 15: 19.3k | + 01.0 | + 050 | + 0380 | + 0430 | + 0640 | + 0570
W4 2024 09 22: 15.1k | + 00.7 | + 030 | + 1670 | +1700 | + 2340 | + 2240 << -$50 from EV Cash out in previous weeks>>
W5 2024 09 29: 10.0k | + 02.8 | + 070 | + 0200 | + 0270 | + 2610 | + 2230 <<$330 below EV | 1320bb>> sickening
W6 2024 10 06: 13.7k | + 01.7 | + 060 | + 0290 | +0350 | +2960 | removed, dont want to whine about it anymore
90k hands @450/hr ~ 200 hours. so roughly $15 / hour while at table
*closer to 520h /hr, but I don't always have 9 tables running.

In Game:

Bonus:

Overall:

Week #6 Result:

Categorize flop textures during play:
Overfolded [default range bet] - I ended up not range betting any of these. Did increase aggression though - Hand Won% increased for all of these categories.
I know that some of these spots should be broken down further by positions (instead of just IP v OP) but for now I going any more in detail is too much for me to handle.

• Board Cat 1 [Draw Heavy Board - wouldnt write the actual specific here]: Complete FAILURE Ended up being less aggressive then before. BB/100 way down.
  Overall Hands Won% went up due to delay aggression but got way too little value for my strong hands.
  Board is dynamic, I needed to get the value from my strong hand before scare card shows up.
  Also got cooler twice, so maybe bb/100 isnt actually THAT bad.
  In Game I thought I'd been betting way too much on these boards and wanted to have strong hands in my checking range.
  Actually, this is quite dumb, missed value + most villains dont notice + if they notice, they can just as easily notice my range being unbalanced the other way.
  
  Also the board isn't as overfolded as I thought. I had to be IP for villain to be over folding =(.
  
  
  
  
  
  
• Board Cat 2 [High Dry Static]: Solid Improvement Increased Aggression. Increased Hands Won %. Also checked the 388 hands. Hand distribution wise, quite poor. Maintaining similar WR is excellent.
  
  
  
  
  
  
• Board Cat 3 [Low Dry Static]: Solid Improvement Tiny increase in flop aggression. Increased Hand Won%. Similar to Category 1, the increase in aggression is often delayed. The difference is Cat 3 board is most static, so it did not hurt my value hands as much.
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
• Board Cat 4-5-6: Mulligan Somehow my brain did not register these board textures in game. End up playing it the same way as I had always done previously. Maybe tried to tackle too many things at the same time (8 tables is not conducive to learning)
  

Underfolded: [default value bet only]
I only had one of these board types to pay attention to and was able to adhere to my game plan.

• Board Cat 1 [High Dry Static v2]: Tiny decrease in flop aggression. Maintained Hands Won%. Increased bb/100.
  Mostly play as value heavy board. Would go for 2 barrels w good combos vs specific villain types.
  
  
  
  
  
  

Mindful to avoid old habits w TPGK | TPWK | Draws
I hadnt even notice in game! This is why posting has been so helpful. First 2-3 days (with excellent results) I was following my plan well.
After a day off + busy schedule + a bit under the weather, the last 2-3 days (with meeh / poor results), I didnt even remember this was an item on the list.

Items from previous weeks sticking. So that's good =). Hands Won% hadn't been over 11% Ever for me =).

Week #7 2024 10 13: Target
Week #6's results were fine, but did not enact the planned strategy.
I feel like I tried to add too much for one week. So I'll slow down a bit.
Taking a week off (from adding new items to my game) to nail down previous weeks' items.

Old Stuff

• VVIP | PFR | WWSF >> 20|8|42+
  Recommit PF Range to memory - somehow it had gone haywire amid trying to improve redline
  Use value heavy strategy for ONE underfolded board texture
  Execute game plane for different hand classes: especially mindful to avoid old habits w TPGK | TPWK | Draws
  
  

Non strategy items:

• Streamline setup for gathering villain stats (Hand history > useable data)
  

Week #7 had started quite poorly. -400bb in short session #1 for the week.
Probably slipped into C game 30 minutes into the session (only lasted maybe 1 hour)
Always try to get some good volume in on the weekend, with the soft games. Forgot I had medication a bit earlier.
The run bad didnt help.

• Correctly folded QQ in SRP on [T72] 2 tone. My CB was met w F, R, C. Villains had 98s and 22
  
• Correctly folded 22 in SRP on [A42] 2 tone. My F 2B was met w 3B, 4B JAM =____=. Villains showed A5s, 44
  
• Folded QQ flush in 3BP on [T876] monotone. My delayed CB was met w OB xJAM.
  
• Incorrectly 3 barrel (big sizing) AQ on [ QJ78A].
  • Only worse to call if AJ.
    
  • xC probably preferred OTR.
    
  • Worse still is to call villain river medium size 2B.
  
  
• Overplayed medium flush. 86s on J33Q7 turned flush. But it was 5 players to the flop. -50bb more than necessary.
  
• Incorrect stab OTF KQs [Q72] 2 tone, 3 players. Got xR'd, 3B in front. Folded
  
  
  • PF I made a note to check anything wore than 2 pairs if given the chance (300bb deep), villain 1 stab T alot and villain 2 xR alot.
    
  
  
  

Yeah. Not sure what came over me. Somehow PF range (which is just automatic for the longest time) is out of sort.
Found myself looking for reasons to PF3BSqueeze.

"Hey look, he folds to 3B x%, this can't be that bad"... still can't be doing it with T9o =______=
Take a moment to refocus. No poker for the rest of the day (maybe the medicine is affecting me more than I thought).

Gonna be a long road back to +EV for this week =(.

Went 3Barrel Bluff with pretty bad combos 3 times=T. 2L, 1W. -150bb just from that.
The worst offender of the day.

• [* }T9 BB 3BSQ
  Pot: 30 CB40% [865] 2 tone
  Pot: 50 CB75% [865T] flush completing turn.
  Pot: 125 CBJAM [865T2], got snapped
  
  At no point did I make any reasonable play.
  F SQ too wide even if [villains had F to 3B 83%, 75%]
  P CB40% might be acceptable but equally as valid to xF, since villain's continuing range v 3B was so tight
  T CB75% really needed to xF, now losing to literately everything except 99, 77 [even those prob have Flush reDraw]
  R got here without a plan (and I knew it in game). I had no idea why I didnt xF. It was just dumb all the way around.
  literal gift for villain.
  

All started from PF, wider range. Feel the need to keep reasonable frequencies, end up having wayyy too weak a range in different spots.
We attack the weakest portion of villain's range! There's no need to go ham versus the strongest part of his range

Gonna be a low volume week. Unlikely to get back to in game weekly in game +EV to keep the streak alive.

Tried firing up some tables and get volume in (my usual targets are around 15k per week, 7k by Monday end).
>>> Just couldn't concentrate well and the study also didn't get anywhere.
>>> Asked my in-law (nurse) about it, so it turns out it was NOT the cold nor the medicine.
>>> I have a concussion =T.

Got it Sunday morning helping neighbor trim a tree and a branch fell and bonked my head.
Will stay away from the tables for another day or two. Maybe do some off the table work, and see how I feel.

Take care guys.

Quick Midweek Update / Rant

• 1. Feeling better. Wanted to get some hands in and was playing fine I think.
  
• 2. Grinded 6 hours (~3k hands) and got back all of the $300 loss for the week. Peeked over $4000 bankroll =)
  
• 3. Then last 15 minutes happened.
  
• 4. Back to -$300 for the week ~100 hands.
  
• 5. No longer feeling better.
  

(-$50): 87s < 98s [964][A[K] [SRP, c vs donk100%, 2B vs cb50%, JAM90bb into 120] ...maybe wrong guy to bluff [Villain 400 hands -22bb/100 WWSF67 F to RBet40]
(-$25): KK < AA
(-$25): QQ < AK
>> all 3 happened simultaneously, decided to stop to "book a win"... but I guess I shouldn't have waited for the BB =(<<

(-$50): 66 < KQs [KQ6][2][4][SRP, xR, CB, JAM right into a BD Flush]
(-$50): AA < 33 [863] [4BPot, SPR = 1]
(-$75): AA < 44 [762][4][2] [4BPot (by Villain) ... call off v CB, CB, JAM]
(-$50): 98s < TT [T76] [SRP 4 players, CB-Villain JAM150bb into 40bb]
(-$50): A5s < AQs [743][4][J] [3BPot, B, B, JAM] ... how did he called with missed FD for 110bb??? :( HOW DID HE CALL?!?!?
(-$25): AJo < KQ [K83][7][3] [SRP, CB, xR, JAM] ... Turned Nut FD, Tried to rep the Flush. Maybe a punt.
>> less than one orbit of 9 tables, just complete destruction<<

I can't be the only In Game -EV Player... right?!?

• I find it weird that most threads are just people flying through the stakes / showing excellent graphs.
  
• We can't all be winning ... right?!?
  
• Sucks to post losing updates / lines / stats / graphs. But I think it's still good to keep it up.
  

To all the struggling players out there (myself squarely in that category).
>>> Hang in there, put the work in, and it'll turn around.

In the grand scheme of things, it hasn't been THAT bad of a week.
But days like this make you a bit timid, because stacking back to back of these days start to hurt.

Had a good night's sleep. Woke up, decided to do get around to updating hand history gathering script.
Good progress, only took around 8 minutes to convert 3000 hands from code names to real players name. (used to take maybe 45 mins)
(I don't buy hand history, so I only use hands that I play)

Then I went to review the sickening hands that leaves the week's progress in shamble (again).
For the most part I think I played those hands not terribly, just a bad run of cards.
I mean I can just pretend the last session didn't happen, it was just slight -EV overall.
-20 buy ins is still a long for a few days. People have that as a BR Management basis!

Quick check to see why RED LINE is falling so hard last 2 sessions. It was tapering off last 2 weeks.
After a couple of days of playing poorly to start the week, felt back into some bad habits.
Over adjusted on FCB | TCB, reined in the aggression so much I am back to being nitty =____=.
Also found several missed mandatory R bluffs that I had focused on improving last two weeks.