Transitioning to Professional Play

Hello all,

As the title states I am transitioning into playing professionally. I am 24 with no familial obligations. I currently have a 1.8million hand sample and am beating NL 200 on various sites for around 3.5bb/100, usually 6-9 tabling regular cash tables or 4 tabling fast fold variants. This is my accountability post, and I will be posting updates frequently.

I am currently employed and will stay employed while I begin to play higher volume, easing out of shifts as I transition. I am trying to approach this with as much caution as possible. My starting bankroll is 15k. After analyzing risk-reward and variance calculators I have decided that I will be moving down to NL100 until I reach 25k. I will then begin to re-enter NL200.

I've made what I believe to be realistic estimations of profitability based on win-rate, volume and rakeback. For these projections I've reduced my win-rate to 3bb/100 (even though I'm moving down and my more recent sample of hands have a fairly higher wr) to account for possible positive variance.

Profitability = Size of BB x ( [Volume x BB/100] + [ Volume x Average Rakeback Per Hand] )

So my projected income at NL100, 40 Hours a week, average of 7.5 tables and an average rakeback per hand at this stake of 2.55bb/100 is $1498.5 a week (810WR, 688.5 rakeback) not including cash leaderboards and other smaller rewards. I owe 15% of winnings to a backer until I have payed them $17,250.

I am unsure if this volume is sustainable, or if my win-rate is sustainable at this volume however I will try to keep up with it, taking breaks when needed and increasing volume if I feel it is possible to do. I originally speculated longer hours but after messaging some friends who play professionally with a detailed rundown of my plan they warned me that the numbers I had originally proposed may not be achievable.

I still plan to study 2 hours a day.

Let me know if you think my bankroll/volume estimates are too aggressive or conservative.