Why do they always have the overcard? & what to do about it?
It's driving me absolutely insane. What the ****.
Why do they ALWAYS have the god damn overcard?
It makes no ****ing sense. It makes no absolutely no logical sense at all.
So example of what im talking about.
You got 9-10.
Flop 4 9 5. You bet. He calls with some bullshit. Turn is a queen. When its not a queen its a jack, when its not a jack its whatever.
It it defies all odds. It makes no sense. It makes no sense at all. Also there's no good play here. Like what.
What do you even do there? Like, you check fold? Like everytime you got top pair, and the turn is an overcard, you check fold? Thats the play??? Because if you bet again, you can bet your ass off he's hit the turn. If you check, he bets. If you bet, he calls. Feels like there's nothing to do man. I dont get it. Its not normal. Its weird. Makes no sense. Its so ****ing weird man. Why do they always has it.
Obviously they dont always have it, but it really does feel like they always do.
So yeah.
1- I want somebody to tell me why it feels like they always hit the overcard, and why it seems to defies math and ****.
2- What do you do about it? You check fold everytime after you hit top pair? Seems like very easy to exploit, now you're bluffable, after being lucky to hit a top pair. **** this **** man.
I even made sure they had it, like four times in a row, just dont care about the money, just checking out their hand, and sure enough man, they hit the turn. I dont get it. I dont get it. What the ****. Why is it like that? It makes no sense.
4 Replies
Variance and selective memory
Well, it's not 'always' an overcard though is it. The probabilities are what they are regardless of how it 'seems' to you.
Given that you hold a 10, there are 19 cards higher than 9 still left in a deck of 47 cards post-flop... so there's 42% chance the turn card will be higher than a 9, and a 12% chance for them to pair one of their hole cards IF they're higher than 9.
Those are the probabilities, it's carved in stone.
You're either experiencing variance or a cognitive bias of some kind.
It's just rigged bro
Suggestion to mods, move this to "Psychology"