Cepheus the "Unbeatable" bot is beatable

Cepheus the "Unbeatable" bot is beatable

Ok I first read about Cepheus the so-called "unbeatable" poker bot back in January when it first came out. I was interested and thought it could be possible to GTO solve hu limit holdem..... maybe. But then I read about the way that these non poker playing computer scientists supposedly solved the game. They had the computer making random decisions and comparing and evaluating the different values of folding, check/calling, bet/raising against another computer making random decisions. The problem with this method that became readily apparent to me is that the computer is going to assign more value to betting raising and calling and less value to folding because the random computer its playing against is going to be folding the nuts sometimes randomly to bluffs.

Now I could see this was going to be flawed so I decided to sit back and wait for someone else to debunk it. Three months later and the only articles I can find online just take the creators claims as true. (If there is someone else whoes disproved it please let me know). I even read David Sklansky saying that even though he couldnt beat it, that it wouldnt extract as much money from a bad player as he would. Which would be true of a GTO solution, but why is everyone so accepting that Cepheus is unbeatable?? Deep blue beat Gary Kasparov. Who has Cepheus beat?

I played Cepheus last night for 200 hands to test my theory out. I won 64.5 big blinds in the first 100 hands and 27.5 big blinds in the second hundred. The program played very poorly in my estimation. The last hand I played basically sums up how bad Cepheus plays. I have A2o in the SB/button. I raise to 20 and Cepheus calls 10 from the bb. Flop A85. Cepheus checks I bet 10 Cepheus calls. Turn 7 Cepheus checks I bet 20 Cepheus calls. River 6 Cepheus checks I bet 20 Cepheus calls with J5 and loses. I bet every street and Cepheus called down every street with bottom pair jack kicker. Horrendous. This is GTO play? A four card straight and ace on board and this program calls on the river with bottom pair??

I plan to play a session of at least 200 hands later and record and upload the video to debunk this bot. I understand that winning 92 big blinds over 200 hands doesnt mean I've debunked it yet, but after how many hands would it be undeniable? I feel confident that I'm right and I'd even be willing to bet 80% of my bankroll I could beat Cepheus long term. I'd be interested to hear what other people think and I'd really like to hear results of your match with the bot. Keeping in mind I think it overvalues betting and calling and undervalues folding so dont bluff and bet middle pair and bottom pair for value all streets.

Also looking at the bots preflop play. How is it GTO preflop play to call 100% of the time after raising from the sb and being reraised by the big blind. With the top of your range I think its pretty obvious the GTO play is to raise back again not just call 100%. At least some calls and raises but to just call in position when you could put another bet in preflop with Aces is just wrong.

KICK THIS BOTS ASS!!!

10 April 2015 at 04:32 AM
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by Rich Checkmaker k

Ok I first read about Cepheus the so-called "unbeatable" poker bot back in January when it first came out. I was interested and thought it could be possible to GTO solve hu limit holdem..... maybe. But then I read about the way that these non poker playing computer scientists supposedly solved the game. They had the computer making random decisions and comparing and evaluating the different values of folding, check/calling, bet/raising against another computer making random decisions. The p

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Weren't solvers just starting to be used by the top players around this exact time period?

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