BREAKING EVEN
I have been playing live cash poker profitably for about 25 years. I lived in Vegas from 2016 till around Covid and I recently moved back. I've been here about 3 weeks.
Now, I understand variance as much as I hate it, I get that it's part of the game. I've had losing streaks, but not for long. The worst I ever had was losing 10 buy ins over 10 sessions, and that was over 10 years ago.
I have had far more times where I would win 5-6 in a row before I lose. I've kept about a 60% win rate and about 8bb/hr at low stakes NL. I've also had several months where I would win nearly every session. I have come very close to a "perfect" month several times, but end up losing a few sessions.
I also understand break evenish periods are possible and inevitable, but I don't think I have ever folded so much in my life. I am getting way below average starting hands and just not getting any significant opportunities. It feels like a waste of time, but I don't have anything else to do right now.
I would LOVE to see anyone win with the cards I have. I actually told someone today if you can win with my cards over 4 hrs. I will pay you $100 / hr. Because I don't think I am doing anything horribly wrong.
I am sure it will take some time to adjust to each room too. I see almost all new players and staff. And the games have changed too. But overall, I am just not getting into big hands like I used to. I don't think I have stacked anyone since I've been here and that used to be a daily occurrence.
And what is even more frustrating is that I am a more knowledgeable player than I was back then, more mature, less tilty, but maybe a bit more conservative. Almost all my sessions are just small wins and losses. Only two big up/down sessions out of 20 sessions is something I have never experienced.
4 Replies
Trust in your results and your knowledge and experience. It will come around. I just came off my worst downswing I have had since I started playing online again. Think I was up 9BBs over the course of a week (about 2k hands) and that was with some SERIOUS effort and moves just to make a few comebacks in some brutal sessions.
Same though, some session the cards weren't there, like at all, even low pockets or connectors. I'd finally pick up like JT to see a 3 bet and and a call before it even got to me. Tons of cracked AA and run outs.
I like to think of it as the law of averages. You need the crap variance so that you can sun run a few times coming up. It will all level out if you stick to your gameplan and winning strategy. Good luck
i'm sure other people would have also lost, but I feel like this is expected to happen at some interval. how many hands are we taking about, and what do you guess your average bb/100h is?
ah I see you mentioned your winrate.
Here's a sample a variance simulation for a 8bb/100h winner over 4000 hands (= 20 sessions of 6 hours at 30 hands/hour, rounded up) with a standard deviation of 90bb/100h which seems reasonable for live full ring games (but if you're playing nitty it could be lower).
as you can see, the bottom of the 70% confidence interval is slightly losing, so at least 15% of the time (probably more like 17%) you will lose money over a 4k hands sample with your winrate.
I think maybe you forgot
it’s a boring game. It’s really about attitude. We all go thru card dead. Even when it’s awful, you can’t tilt, don’t feel exasperated, just fold.
You have to keep smiling, keep folding and wait. Most of the players that win big for the day are bad players getting lucky. Great players win consistently, not huge that often.
It sounds like you’ll be fine, just need a little more time to get used to the environment and learn who to exploit.
I’m sure you know that you can’t lose your discipline & play KTo UTG just because it’s the best hand you’ve had all day. It’s much tougher than the old days, because you mostly see better ranges pre-flop. Fortunately, most players are still not very good post-flop, and many give action without realizing how tight you’ve been playing.
So, my suggestion is to fold for hours and like it. Don’t think of it as drudgery, but as strategy. It only takes a couple of hands to make a decent score, wait for them. Seriously, it helped me enormously to no longer worry about card dead - nobody’s out to get you, it’s just a part of game. I distract myself trying to range players when I’m not in the hand.
I can win with your cards, because I can fold for however many hours it takes, and I can find situations where my OMC image allows a steal or two.
Embrace the boredom and you got this!
