Out of the Past: Moving through the stakes

My Pokerstars volume over break. Excludes ~5,000-10,000 25nl hands where I was a pretty big winner. Redline sucks, obviously. Need to improve that. I'm newer, so this observation can be taken with a grain of salt, but I think I ran really bad over this sample. Or I could just be bad myself, which is the most likely possibility.

I've never really been "educated" on what good stats look like. I think my WWSF is really low when I compared it to the good regs in my pool. Same with Cbet%s all streets. I'm a NIT in the BB?

Let me know if there are other stats/graphs people want to see.

All of your frequencies are low and on the passive side of the spectrum. More cbetting, more 3betting, more 4betting more x'ring etc etc. All very natural for a newer player of course. No real advice on practical ways to improve other than study and play more and everything will naturally get better so long as your always open to critique on your game from yourself and others.

Best of luck

I finally got my financial released from my school so it freed up my other money. I ended up depositing on WPN. The past week or so I've been working on pre-flop, particularly BB defense.

I played last night, then again this afternoon, and I had my first multi-buyin winning session for the first time in about a month. I can confirm, poker is a lot more enjoyable when you're getting dealt winning hands 😀

BR ~$1750

Yatahay Network - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 102.28 BB
SB: 129.46 BB
Hero (BB): 372.22 BB
UTG: 100.7 BB
MP: 100 BB
CO: 115.42 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 4♥ 6♥

fold, MP raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (5.5 BB, 2 players) 6♦ 2♣ 6♣
Hero checks, MP bets 1.5 BB, Hero raises to 7.86 BB, MP calls 6.36 BB

Turn: (21.22 BB, 2 players) 8♠
Hero checks, MP checks

River: (21.22 BB, 2 players) T♠
Hero bets 18.72 BB, MP calls 18.72 BB

Hero shows 4♥ 6♥ (Three of a Kind, Sixes)
(Pre 34%, Flop 93%, Turn 95%)
MP shows 5♠ 5♦ (Two Pair, Sixes and Fives)
(Pre 66%, Flop 7%, Turn 5%)
Hero wins 55.74 BB

After the hand, I hated my turn check, but solver prefers it? I should probably increase my river size but not sure. I think people probably over-3bet their JJs+ OTF (perhaps that's a wrong read on pop), and then overly bet whatever value they have left after I check turn to them--as a result, I think his river range is a lot more like what he ended up with than what a solver has. I guess even then the adjustment is to just bet even larger and bluff their faces off for like 2x pot?

To improve redline one of the main things you can do is to fight for small pots more, and c/r more especially bb vs btn. I think there's this general warped perception that to improve red line we need to run multi street bluffs with big bets but imo it's not the main thing to strive for especially at lower stakes. If we win a couple more BB here and there overtime they add up alot.

Other things to look for, depending on whether you have hud stats or not ( or learning pool tendencies ), is stealing a lot from CO onwards. We want to be opening very wide, many weaker players are overfolding in the blinds so we can exploit that by opening a lot of hands. The people who are already doing that then we can 1-up them by 3betting them with junk hands. It's a continuous game of cat and mouse trying to 1up each other but the good thing is vast majority of players in these pooles aren't paying attention to this stuff.

BTN vs BB a lot of regs/fish are over cbetting some close to entire range and we can exploit that by check raising more. If we call hands passively that have little hope to improve on turn and withstand double barrells then they are the ones exploiting us.

Random hand example in my head, we def in BB with Q6cc and board is 45T with one club. Raise size don't need to be big, 2.5x is fine and we put BTN in tonnes of awful spots that way. The reason for raising these hands is obvious but ill say it anyway they make bad calls oop but there's many cards we can turn that improve our equity along with possibility of hitting an overcard. Looking at red line I'd guess these are the type of scenarios and boards you fold a lot. If you look at these spots in solver or even just look at it logically with how our hand interacts with the board they'll start to make sense as to why we wana c/r them.

GL with your journey

Guess I was wrong when I said the run bad was over. BR: $1479. Will try and post hands later.

Good luck with your journey 😀 , few quick pointers

- if you have access to segregated pool (Michigan), idk why you would choose to play WPN (v. reg heavy) or Ignition (dense in cheaters + bots). These segregated player pools are a gold mine so take advantage of it. This variable will likely increase your bankroll growth potential the most

- If you are having very few multi buy in wins in a month on average, and from what I can gather from your graph, its unlikely that its "just variance" and that you're running bad over this (rather insignificant) sample.

- "financials freed from school ... freed up other $ ... deposit WPN" => I hope you're not using school $ or life $ to deposit with bc that is a recipe for disaster, keep your funds separate and don't just deposit or play higher bc you came into $. My personal opinion is that your game is not ready YET.

- RE stats - you also want to include "WTSD" (went to show down) which is an indicator as to your calling tendencies (how well you defend) as well as indicator as to your aggression tendencies (how often you let your opponents get to SD due to your, or more likely lack of, aggression)

- Overall, the only line that matters is the green/ev line, and frequently whether you win either depends on your opponents and the dynamic you have with your opponents, but general rule of thumb is that you never want to bleed out either line. The ideal is for you to win both lines, or at least breakeven in one or slightly losing whilst you generate EV from your winning line.

RE: PLUGGING YOUR LEAKS - Go do some database analysis on your sample, I think Upswing has some videos/content on database analysis and other coaching platforms might have them too. Find the benchmark and compare it to yours. Engage with the community on discord to explore how and why the stats should look the way they do. Bc its usually not as simple as looking at one stat as they are all correlated

Thanks!
1. I go to law school outside of MI. So I don't have access anymore. I'd definitely still be playing there if I had access.
2. I like to think I have a pretty decent ability to identify when things are "variance". Obviously, I'm not perfect, and I don't purport to be some crusher. Just keeping count of things like getting KKs vs AAs and of the sort I was pretty far under parity. I also don't know how accurate it is, but the "overall luck bell curve" on PT4 for that sample had me on the "extremely unlucky" end for hands for sets, flushes, and straights, which tracks pretty much how I felt.
3. I'm not using student loan money or being risky. I have my own personal money, and then I get a student loan to cover living expenses. Last semester, there was an issue with their system, and it took me a couple of months to receive my student loans, so I wasn't sure if I would need to cover my expenses out-of-pocket for an extended period of time.

Had a nice little nighttime rally after a rough afternoon. BR: $1626.

Yatahay Network - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

Hero (BTN): 120 BB
SB: 131.14 BB
BB: 208.52 BB
UTG: 113.98 BB
MP: 211.24 BB
CO: 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Qh Ac
fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, BB calls 1.5 BB

Flop : (5.5 BB, 2 players) Qd 4h 2c
BB checks, Hero bets 1.58 BB, BB calls 1.58 BB

Turn : (8.66 BB, 2 players) 7h
BB checks, Hero bets 12.98 BB, BB raises to 36.9 BB, Hero calls 23.92 BB

River : (82.46 BB, 2 players) 8s
BB bets 167.54 BB and is all-in, fold

BB wins 78.34 BB

Just fold turn? The solver almost never raises the OB OTT, but when they do it's exclusively 77s and AQo is a fold. I don't know MDA, but my intuition during the hand was that population probably over bluffs with this action (complete guess). A situation where people get sticky with their FDs but feel gross just calling. Curious to hear other peoples thoughts about how this spot gets played in actuality.

Yatahay Network - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: 160.02 BB
Hero (SB): 266.36 BB
BB: 110.7 BB
UTG: 316.96 BB
MP: 102.04 BB
CO: 162.78 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has As Ts
fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2.5 BB, Hero raises to 12 BB, fold, BTN calls 9.5 BB

Flop : (25 BB, 2 players) Ac Tc 3d
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn : (25 BB, 2 players) 5h
Hero bets 25 BB, BTN calls 25 BB

River : (75 BB, 2 players) 2c
Hero checks, BTN checks

BTN shows Td Kd (One Pair, Tens)
(Pre 29%, Flop 5%, Turn 0%)

Hero shows As Ts (Two Pair, Aces and Tens)
(Pre 71%, Flop 95%, Turn 100%)

Hero wins 71.26 BB

OTF is what I mentioned earlier in the thread about my tendency to check back value at too high of a frequency. 100bbs Solver has at 80bet 20check, I probably do the reverse in practice. OTT after check, my range is predominately made up JJs-KKs, so it prefers a small bet. I'll have to store that as a heuristic to try and remember for similar situations (however, if people aren't raising enough vs small bets then my splitting of the range is probably okay?). There is some overbetting though. OTF 150bbs it prefers betting pretty much range. I'll have to study deepstack more because I had no idea that it impacted play so dramatically evening beginning OTF.

I've definitely gotten gun shy vs flush completing cards. I need to just stop being such a b**** and just bet there. The question is what sizing? Due to my sizing OTT, I'm going to have an ample amount of flushes IMR. Probably bet small and protect the range with my weaker flushes (I think GTO would tend to use stronger flushes, but people aren't raising river enough in practice to make this correct?).

My goals for the weekend:

- Continue to work on pre-flop. I'm still too lost facing 3-bets for it to be a good situation. The issue I have studying pre-flop is understanding how population plays and how that impacts (rather, how drastically) our responses. For instance, the 50nl sims on GTO wizard have BTN 5bet jamming KQs 50% of the time. However, I doubt people are 4betting anywhere near enough in practice for this to be profitable. So the question becomes what you actually should do in practice and how that effects your previous streets. Not to mention the mixed voices you hear regarding pre-flop tips for micros/small stakes. A pro in one video will say to never do X. Another says to always do X. It's strange given the nature of pre-flop, but it seems like such a high-leverage part of the game tree where if you have mistaken assumptions about what others are doing (even slight), you just get run over and hemorrhage money. It can feel quite futile trying to study it :/

- I'd like to get in a lot of hands, possibly push for making The Beast. I'm currently ~500 points away from being ITM. I've never really played on ACR, but I imagine that during the weekend the grinders at 100nl+ come out and will just blow me out of the water for the leaderboard. I guess we'll see.

Sadly, my internet was down on saturday so I didn't get to play as much as I would have liked to this weekend.

Here is my graph from the first week on WPN. Mix between 50nlz and 25nlz.

I think my stats have moved in the right direction

I still need to keep working a lot on preflop.

I'm assuming just never fold here?

Yatahay Network - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: 166.84 BB
Hero (SB): 133.76 BB
BB: 127.64 BB
UTG: 107.8 BB
MP: 166.8 BB
CO: 107.84 BB

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Qc Qh
UTG raises to 2.08 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 12 BB, BB calls 11 BB, fold

Flop : (26.08 BB, 2 players) 6h 2s Jh
Hero bets 19.56 BB, BB raises to 115.64 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 96.08 BB

Turn : (257.36 BB, 2 players) 3h

River : (257.36 BB, 2 players) 3d

Players agreed to run it twice.

Turn #2: (257.36 BB, 2 players) 7s

River #2: (257.36 BB, 2 players) Ac

Hero shows Qc Qh (Two Pair, Queens and Threes)
Board #1 (Pre 82%, Flop 12%, Turn 23%)
(One Pair, Queens)
Board #2 (Pre 81%, Flop 12%, Turn 5%)

BB shows Js Jc (Full House, Jacks full of Threes)
Board #1 (Pre 18%, Flop 88%, Turn 77%)
(Three of a Kind, Jacks)
Board #2 (Pre 19%, Flop 88%, Turn 95%)

BB wins 122.68 BB
BB wins 122.68 BB

Too nitty? He had a 0% 4bet across 200 hands.

Yatahay Network - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: 143.68 BB
SB: 408.48 BB
BB: 120.2 BB
UTG: 120.6 BB
MP: 81 BB
Hero (CO): 254.44 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Ks Kd
fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.48 BB, fold, SB raises to 11.4 BB, fold, Hero raises to 25.12 BB, SB raises to 48.84 BB, fold

SB wins 51.24 BB

I don't really have a clue what a HJ flatting range looks like. I figured it would be centered around QX a lot of the time. OTR I figured there was enough KTs KJs QXs (even 9Xs?) that call turn, that would fold.

Yatahay Network - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: 35.08 BB
SB: 95.28 BB
BB: 100 BB
Hero (UTG): 242.2 BB
MP: 111.24 BB
CO: 186.4 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 5c 5d
Hero raises to 2.48 BB, MP calls 2.48 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold

Flop : (6.36 BB, 2 players) Qs Ac 9d
Hero bets 1.84 BB, MP calls 1.84 BB

Turn : (10.04 BB, 2 players) 4s
Hero bets 15.04 BB, MP calls 15.04 BB

River : (40.12 BB, 2 players) 3d
Hero bets 60.16 BB, MP calls 60.16 BB

Hero shows 5c 5d (One Pair, Fives)
(Pre 53%, Flop 9%, Turn 5%)

MP shows Ad 7d (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 47%, Flop 91%, Turn 95%)

MP wins 152.44 BB

It didn't even occur to me to jam over the top of his river bet. I need to be more cognizant of spots like this, where I don't have the nuts but can still get a lot of value from worse hands.

Yatahay Network - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: 73.76 BB
SB: 100 BB
BB: 99.52 BB
UTG: 101.4 BB
Hero (MP): 130.64 BB
CO: 144.56 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Jd Jc
fold, Hero raises to 2.48 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1.48 BB

Flop : (5.36 BB, 2 players) 6c 9s 4d
BB checks, Hero bets 1.52 BB, BB raises to 9.92 BB, Hero calls 8.4 BB

Turn : (25.2 BB, 2 players) Th
BB checks, Hero checks

River : (25.2 BB, 2 players) Js
BB bets 25.2 BB, Hero calls 25.2 BB

BB shows Qs 8h (Straight, Queen High)
(Pre 28%, Flop 17%, Turn 20%)

Hero shows Jd Jc (Three of a Kind, Jacks)
(Pre 72%, Flop 83%, Turn 80%)

BB wins 71.84 BB

Same **** everyday for the past month

Yatahay Network - $0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

Hero (CO): 126.08 BB
BTN: 101.74 BB
SB: 115.98 BB
BB: 109.24 BB
UTG: 87.88 BB
MP: 71.7 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 8s 8c
UTG raises to 2 BB, fold, Hero raises to 6.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls 4.5 BB

Flop : (14.5 BB, 2 players) 8d Ks 3d
UTG checks, Hero bets 4.2 BB, UTG raises to 15.64 BB, Hero raises to 27.08 BB, UTG calls 11.44 BB

Turn : (68.66 BB, 2 players) 2d
UTG bets 54.3 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 54.3 BB

River : (177.26 BB, 2 players) 9s

Hero shows 8s 8c (Three of a Kind, Eights)
(Pre 66%, Flop 74%, Turn 23%)

UTG shows Ad 5d (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 34%, Flop 26%, Turn 77%)

UTG wins 171.26 BB

Yatahay Network - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

Hero (BTN): 120 BB
SB: 139.44 BB
BB: 119.52 BB
UTG: 111.6 BB
MP: 100 BB
CO: 104.44 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Kc Jc
fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.48 BB, SB raises to 9.24 BB, fold, Hero calls 6.76 BB

Flop : (19.48 BB, 2 players) Qc 9h 5h
SB bets 6.92 BB, Hero calls 6.92 BB

Turn : (33.32 BB, 2 players) 9s
SB checks, Hero bets 24.96 BB, SB calls 24.96 BB

River : (83.24 BB, 2 players) 3d
SB checks, Hero bets 78.88 BB and is all-in, SB calls 78.88 BB

Hero shows Kc Jc (One Pair, Nines)
(Pre 30%, Flop 29%, Turn 16%)

SB shows Ad Kh (One Pair, Nines)
(Pre 70%, Flop 71%, Turn 84%)

SB wins 229 BB

Yatahay Network - $0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

Hero (SB): 184.04 BB
BB: 116.46 BB
UTG: 100.5 BB
CO: 100 BB
BTN: 77.76 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Ah Ac
fold, fold, BTN raises to 2 BB, Hero raises to 12 BB, fold, BTN calls 10 BB

Flop : (25 BB, 2 players) Kc 9c 2h
Hero checks, BTN bets 13.5 BB, Hero calls 13.5 BB

Turn : (52 BB, 2 players) Kh
Hero checks, BTN checks

River : (52 BB, 2 players) Qc
Hero checks, BTN bets 52.26 BB and is all-in, fold

BTN wins 49.4 BB

Yatahay Network - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: 109.96 BB
SB: 126.2 BB
BB: 135.56 BB
Hero (UTG): 224.48 BB
MP: 124.4 BB
CO: 105.2 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Qc Ah
Hero raises to 2.48 BB, fold, fold, fold, SB calls 2.08 BB, fold

Flop : (5.96 BB, 2 players) Qd 3d 7d
SB checks, Hero bets 1.72 BB, SB raises to 6.4 BB, Hero calls 4.68 BB

Turn : (18.76 BB, 2 players) Qs
SB checks, Hero checks

River : (18.76 BB, 2 players) Kc
SB bets 18.76 BB, Hero calls 18.76 BB

SB shows 4d 2d (Flush, Queen High)
(Pre 39%, Flop 97%, Turn 77%)

Hero shows Qc Ah (Three of a Kind, Queens)
(Pre 61%, Flop 3%, Turn 23%)

SB wins 53.48 BB

I have three pieces of friendly advice for you:

If cash games are your favorite, switch to live poker if at all possible. The games are much softer, and the long-term outlook is brighter than online poker.

Don’t play fast-fold games as a newer player. Ranges are tighter, and bad players tend to play even tighter, knowing they can just fold and instantly get a better starting hand. There’s also less time to think through hands, and fast-fold games often cause people to play on autopilot.

Get off the WPN network for cash games. It’s full of bots, colluders, RTA (real-time assistance), and rakeback/leaderboard grinders. A lot of Eastern European grinders play professionally at stakes ranging from 10nl to 50nl, and those stakes are worth significantly more to them due to currency conversion.

New strategy: just never bluff. They either, (a), always have it, or, (b) call with something they shouldn't.