Gutshot and Two Backdoors – Qualified. Another PLO Thread
Gutshot and Two Backdoors – Qualified. Another PLO Thread

Gutshot and Two Backdoors – Qualified. Another PLO Thread

Starting My PLO Journey – Blog Post #1
Hi guys, I’ve decided to start a blog here—mainly to keep myself accountable and see how long I can stick with it, and whether I can turn it into a habit.

A bit of backstory:
I started playing poker around 17 years ago and transitioned into PLO in 2017. I've been pretty lazy and inconsistent with my playing schedule, even taking breaks that lasted years. Now, I’d like to give it another serious shot and see if blogging and tracking my journey will give it a new kind of motivation.

The main reason I’m doing this, as mentioned above, is to put myself out there and hold myself accountable. I want to write about the good and the bad that comes with it—whatever that may be.

Currently, I mostly play live poker, with some online sessions here and there. Since I live in Canada, my main games are 1/2/10 or 2/5 (CAD). So, if I post any graphs, they’ll mostly be in Canadian dollars, especially when it comes to live tracking.

I’ve set a small goal for myself: from May to December, I’d like to make $80,000 CAD (about $10k/month). That gives me around 34 weeks from the start of May, and assuming I play five 8-hour sessions a week, I’ll need to maintain an hourly rate of about $58.80. That’s generally achievable in these games, in my experience.

Of course, setting financial goals in poker can be tricky since outcomes aren't guaranteed. All we can do is show up, play our best, and try to put ourselves in profitable spots. Still, based on my past results, that win rate seems realistic—so it’s something I’m aiming for.

As excited as I was to set this challenge, the start of the month has already been a nice reality check. It’s making me question my own abilities—again. It’s always funny how one day you can feel like the king of the hill, and the next day you’re wondering if you can even beat the game.

Graphs:

Live graph for this month

Spoiler
Show



Live graph for the year (not a lot of volume)

Spoiler
Show


Life graph since last April (not a lot of volume)

Spoiler
Show



I’ll try to post some interesting hands here and there, but mostly I’ll focus on weekly or monthly updates on how the journey is going.

Progress: -5,195 / 80,000 CAD
One hand at a time. One bad river at a time.

Good luck at the tables!

15 May 2025 at 04:16 PM
Reply...

16 Replies



Update #2

Another week has passed, and the grind continues. Results have been better compared to the start of the month, which is encouraging. It’s funny how last week I felt completely lost in this game—like I had no clue what was going on—and now I feel the exact opposite.

But the one thing that always holds true: if you want to achieve anything in this game, you just have to show up, put in the hours, and grind.

Something I’d like to start incorporating more is study time. Not exactly sure yet how I’ll fit it into everything, but it feels like I havent done the theory work too much!

Graph update for the current month:

Spoiler
Show





Hand #1

Spoiler
Show

Game: 1/2/10
Effective Stacks: ~2.5k
Villain: Tight regular in LJ/CO — haven’t seen him run any big bluffs, just some smaller (20BB) ones here and there
Hero: CO or BTN (in position)

Preflop:
Villain opens to 35
Hero 3-bets to 120 with A Q T 6
Villain calls

Flop: A Q 7 (Pot: 255)
Villain checks
Hero bets 125
Villain calls

Turn: A Q 7 3 (Pot: 505)
Villain checks
Hero bets 250
Villain calls

River: A Q 7 3 J (Pot: 1,005)
Villain leads 900
Hero calls

Villain shows: K K T 4 — straight with nut flush draw
Hero loses

I'm pretty sure I butchered the turn in this hand. In general, I should be betting bigger there. While I wasn't too worried about the strength of my hand, it's one of those spots where you're likely to get max value from draws, and a half-pot bet just doesn't accomplish much. I don't think it induces anything either. Something like a small b20 to induce or a bet big would likely be much better in this spot.

Also not thrilled with the river call. I haven’t seen this opponent run any big bluffs—just some small ones here and there. My T blocker doesn’t really justify calling in this spot. Sure, in theory, it might be good to prevent getting exploited, but I’m not convinced it’s worth it against this type of player.

Hand #2

Spoiler
Show

Game: 1/2/10/20
UTG (10k+ stack): Drunk and generating tons of action
BTN (2.5k): Aggro regular
Hero (2.8k): 4th blind

Preflop:
UTG opens to 75
BTN calls
Hero calls with A K 6 7

Flop: 3 4 5 (Pot: 240)
Hero check
UTG bets 200
BTN calls
Hero calls

Turn: 3 4 5 2 (Pot: 840)
Hero check
UTG bets 750
BTN calls
Hero shoves 2.4k
UTG calls
BTN folds

River: 3 4 5 2 2 (Pot: 6400)
Hero scoops with nut straight — UTG had 66 blockers + turned clubs

Against this type of UTG player I feel flatting flop oop seems pretty good, he sees me quite tight so raising there would be definitely alarm bells on this mind. Even when we are 3 way there I think he continues a lot on the turn once he bet that flop. On turn I dont think I should lead so x/ship after the action seems the only play in my mind. Good to win a big pot!

Progress: 4,315 / 80,000
Fewer bad rivers this week—progress!

Good luck at the tables!


Blog Post #3

Quick update for the week—had one solid session, but the rest was pretty uneventful. Took two days off as well, so not a ton of volume overall. Still, the grind continues!

Spoiler
Show



Progress: 12,520 / 80,000
No pairs? No problem


So, the month has wrapped up—and overall, it turned out to be a decent one. I was struggling through the first half of May, but luckily things turned around in the middle and I finally started stringing together some wins.

There were a few interesting hands, but I don’t remember all the details clearly anymore. Might need to start jotting them down right after the session if I want to include them here moving forward.

Graph:

Spoiler
Show



Progress: 15,670 / 80,000
This month: fewer bad beats, more good vibes.


Weekly Update – The Highs and Lows

Another week has passed. Put in the usual volume, but variance was definitely putting on a show—either running red hot or completely card dead, no in-between. That’s just how the sessions played out.

The good news: managed to end the week strong and inch even closer to the challenge goal!

Graph:

Spoiler
Show






Progress: 21,865 / 80,000
Flopped the nuts, rivered reality — still grinding


Weekly Update

First few days of the week were rough—nearly booked my biggest losing day of the challenge. Thankfully, some late-session sun run came to the rescue and flipped the script.

Closed out the week strong, running well and playing solid. Logged the usual ~40 hours and feeling good about the overall progress.

Graph:

Spoiler
Show




Progress: 30,825 / 80,000
Grind. Suffer. Sun-run. Repeat.


Weekly Update – Sleep is the Real Boss

Sleep schedule’s been all over the place this week, and it definitely affected the grind. Played a bit less volume than usual while trying to reel things back in. Nothing too crazy happened—just another week in the trenches.

The grind continues.

Spoiler
Show

Graph:





Progress: 32,300 / 80,000
Body says sleep, bankroll says one more orbit.


Another week in the books!

Put in solid volume—around 55 hours—but ended up taking a small loss. Definitely played below par in a few sessions, and capped the week off with my biggest hit of the challenge so far: -4.5k in one session. Won a couple hands, but lost every flip that mattered. That’s PLO for you.

Haven’t used Mastermind in a while—wondering if there are any newer tools out there besides Mastermind or Monker to study? Would love to hear if anyone’s using something else lately.

Also thinking of dipping my toes into tournament PLO. Any recommendations on good courses or resources?

Graph:

Spoiler
Show



Progress: 29,900 / 80,000
Keep on trucking—through flips, punts, and post-flop pain


Another week wrapped up. Played a bit lighter than usual—around 35 hours total. Sessions were mostly uneventful, small ups and downs, but managed to finish slightly in the green.

That said, the last three weeks have been more or less break-even overall. Getting a year older now… so if the poker gods are listening, a little birthday run good wouldn’t hurt!

See you next weeeek!

Graph:

Spoiler
Show





Progress: 33,920 / 80,000

Older, wiser, still flipping for rent.


Another week in the books. Played the least amount so far—sleep schedule has been completely random again. Trying (once more) to fix it... but when the late-night games are juicy, it’s tough to walk away. That’s the eternal struggle.

The last 4 weeks have been a breakeven grind—not exactly thrilling, but at least it’s not a downswing (yet). Been losing most of the 3 and 4-bet pots lately—flopping air or getting cracked. Standard PLO pain, still waiting for variance to throw me a bone.

On the bright side, I finally jumped back into Mastermind and started doing some work. Could (and should) do way more though. Grinding always feels easier than studying, but refreshing concepts definitely helps long-term.

Graph:

Spoiler
Show



Progress: 30,430 / 80,000
Breakeven brain fog, powered by four-card delusion


Breakeven stretch continues! Had some wild sessions this week with huge swings, including my biggest losing session of the challenge so far at -5.2k. The games have been great, but variance has been relentless.

Played a few online tournaments on Sunday and managed to snag around +2k from them. Not sure yet if I’ll add online results to this challenge—volume has been tiny so far—but I might start combining results at the end of the month.

Graph:

Spoiler
Show



Progress: 30,330 / 80,000
One step back, one sun-run away from glory


One day I will win again! Currently feels like I’m stuck in a downswing. It’s not massive in terms of buy-ins, but this breakeven/swing stretch is dragging on and getting pretty unpleasant. Losing flips and sprinkling in some bad play definitely hasn’t helped.

From the highest point, I’m down over 10k—again, not huge in buy-in terms—but this ~250-hour stretch feels long. If anyone plays live, what’s your biggest downswing or breakeven stretch? We never know when the end is coming, but hopefully the upswing is just around the corner.

All I can do is keep showing up and trying to play better. Until next week’s update!

Graph:

Spoiler
Show





Progress: 24,045 / 80,000
Grinding, bleeding, but not folding.


Didn’t put in too much volume this week—around 20 hours total. Took the weekend off to visit a friend in Kelowna for the first time. Beautiful place with awesome views and a laid-back vibe. Definitely worth a visit, and a reminder I should travel more around Canada. One day!

Poker-wise, managed to climb a bit out of the hole. Nothing major, but progress is progress. This coming week, it's back on the grind. I’m a little behind the original pace, but it’s still very doable.

As always—just show up and put in the work. Hopefully, the rest will follow.

Spoiler
Show

Graph:





Progress: 30,365 / 80,000
Refreshed, refocused, and ready to chase the run good.


Weekly Update – Still in the Stretch

Another short week of grinding—played around 22 hours total. The week started strong after a solid weekend, but Friday brought a wave of frustration with my game. Only played a quick two-hour session that day. The tables didn’t look great, and being annoyed with my play, I decided to call it.

Took Saturday off to relax a bit more and reset. This week, I’ll be back in action and doing my best to climb again. Right now, I’m in the biggest breakeven stretch of the challenge—close to 300 hours—so hopefully I can finally break through it soon.

Graph:

Spoiler
Show





Progress: 32,440 / 80,000
300 hours of breakeven—variance clearly wants a longer relationship


Weekly Update – Monster Pots & Missed Sun Runs

Weeks are going by but cash is not coming in! Can I still beat this game?

Dollar-wise, this week looked like the last—down a bit overall, with the breakeven stretch dragging on. But Saturday brought some fireworks: probably the craziest session I’ve ever had, including the biggest pot of my life so far. And since variance still has me in its grip… of course I lost it. On top of that, I dropped a few more big ones in the same session. What could have easily been a +20k night with a little run good ended up as a small losing day. I have to be happy with taking the right spots—but damn, it’d be nice to win a few of these monsters again.

Outside of the cards, the sleep schedule is still a wreck. Every day it drifts later by a couple hours, so by Sunday I’m waking up around 5–6pm, then spending Sunday/Monday trying to reset. Ideally, I’d play tournaments on Sundays, but it hasn’t worked out with these late starts. I know discipline is key in the long run, and I am improving compared to past years—playing more live hours than ever—but there’s still a long way to go.

The big one:
Game: 1/2/10/35 PLO
Stacks: Me ~7k, BB ~4k, Straddle ~5.5k

UTG+1: I open $120 with A644ds
BB calls
Straddle 3bets $495 → we both call

Flop: T66r (1500)
Straddle bets $1,450 → I call, BB folds

Turn: Kr (4400)
Villain checks → I shove $3.6k → he calls

River: T (11600)
Villain shows JT97 for rivered trips. I’m cooked.

At first I thought he only had a T + gutshot, but he actually had a double gutter.

Two orbits later, I tangled with the same player again:

I had AA43ds vs his AKJ7ccc → he flops K77, I lose another ~7k pot.
Later, I get it in with AAKTss vs his 6543ss for ~2.5k → lose again.

With a little run good, it could have been the best session of the challenge. Instead, it turned into a beating. At least the guy I lost to was a really nice player—he’ll be back, and I’ll be there when variance flips sides.

Outside of poker, I’ve been thinking more about starting something on the side—business, project, whatever it might be. Got a few ideas, but if anyone wants to throw out random thoughts or share what they’re working on, I’m all ears.

Graph:

Spoiler
Show





Progress: 30,285 / 80,000
Biggest pots of my life—variance made sure I only got the receipts


Weekly Update – Groundhog Weeks

Weeks go by, but dollars are not coming in!

Another week, another repeat of the same story. Life feels like Groundhog Day—but instead of days, it’s weeks. Win a little one week, dump it the next. One day I’ll break that cycle again!

I’ve been trying to shift more focus online lately. I actually prefer playing online, but grinding long hours behind the computer feels tougher than sitting for 8 hours straight at a live table. For now, a mix of both seems like the best balance.

Keeping this one short—next update should be a bit lengthier as I’m expecting some new things both in poker and in life.

Graph:

Spoiler
Show


Progress: 29,775 / 80,000


Weekly Update – Volume Low, Spirits Up

Short one this week. Didn’t put in much volume again, with a bit more focus on online.

On the bright side, I think I’ve found the perfect solution to downswings: if you don’t play, you can’t lose, right? 😅 Luckily, still managed to book a win for the week.

Next week’s update should be longer—some new things are coming up, and bigger posts take a bit more thought. This thread was always meant to keep me accountable, not to write a book (for now).

Graph:

Spoiler
Show




Progress: 33,875 / 80,000

Small volume, small win—variance can’t catch me if I don’t log on

Reply...