Gutshot and Two Backdoors – Qualified. Another PLO Thread
Starting My PLO Journey ā Blog Post #1
Hi guys, Iāve decided to start a blog hereāmainly to keep myself accountable and see how long I can stick with it, and whether I can turn it into a habit.
A bit of backstory:
I started playing poker around 17 years ago and transitioned into PLO in 2017. I've been pretty lazy and inconsistent with my playing schedule, even taking breaks that lasted years. Now, Iād like to give it another serious shot and see if blogging and tracking my journey will give it a new kind of motivation.
The main reason Iām doing this, as mentioned above, is to put myself out there and hold myself accountable. I want to write about the good and the bad that comes with itāwhatever that may be.
Currently, I mostly play live poker, with some online sessions here and there. Since I live in Canada, my main games are 1/2/10 or 2/5 (CAD). So, if I post any graphs, theyāll mostly be in Canadian dollars, especially when it comes to live tracking.
Iāve set a small goal for myself: from May to December, Iād like to make $80,000 CAD (about $10k/month). That gives me around 34 weeks from the start of May, and assuming I play five 8-hour sessions a week, Iāll need to maintain an hourly rate of about $58.80. Thatās generally achievable in these games, in my experience.
Of course, setting financial goals in poker can be tricky since outcomes aren't guaranteed. All we can do is show up, play our best, and try to put ourselves in profitable spots. Still, based on my past results, that win rate seems realisticāso itās something Iām aiming for.
As excited as I was to set this challenge, the start of the month has already been a nice reality check. Itās making me question my own abilitiesāagain. Itās always funny how one day you can feel like the king of the hill, and the next day youāre wondering if you can even beat the game.
Graphs:
Live graph for this month
Live graph for the year (not a lot of volume)
Life graph since last April (not a lot of volume)
Iāll try to post some interesting hands here and there, but mostly Iāll focus on weekly or monthly updates on how the journey is going.
Progress: -5,195 / 80,000 CAD
One hand at a time. One bad river at a time.
Good luck at the tables!
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Update #2
Another week has passed, and the grind continues. Results have been better compared to the start of the month, which is encouraging. Itās funny how last week I felt completely lost in this gameālike I had no clue what was going onāand now I feel the exact opposite.
But the one thing that always holds true: if you want to achieve anything in this game, you just have to show up, put in the hours, and grind.
Something Iād like to start incorporating more is study time. Not exactly sure yet how Iāll fit it into everything, but it feels like I havent done the theory work too much!
Graph update for the current month:
Hand #1
Spoiler
Game: 1/2/10
Effective Stacks: ~2.5k
Villain: Tight regular in LJ/CO ā havenāt seen him run any big bluffs, just some smaller (20BB) ones here and there
Hero: CO or BTN (in position)
Preflop:
Villain opens to 35
Hero 3-bets to 120 with A♥ Q♥ T♣ 6♣
Villain calls
Flop: A♣ Q♦ 7♣ (Pot: 255)
Villain checks
Hero bets 125
Villain calls
Turn: A♣ Q♦ 7♣ 3♠ (Pot: 505)
Villain checks
Hero bets 250
Villain calls
River: A♣ Q♦ 7♣ 3♠ J♠ (Pot: 1,005)
Villain leads 900
Hero calls
Villain shows: K♣ K♦ T♥ 4♣ ā straight with nut flush draw
Hero loses
I'm pretty sure I butchered the turn in this hand. In general, I should be betting bigger there. While I wasn't too worried about the strength of my hand, it's one of those spots where you're likely to get max value from draws, and a half-pot bet just doesn't accomplish much. I don't think it induces anything either. Something like a small b20 to induce or a bet big would likely be much better in this spot.
Also not thrilled with the river call. I havenāt seen this opponent run any big bluffsājust some small ones here and there. My T blocker doesnāt really justify calling in this spot. Sure, in theory, it might be good to prevent getting exploited, but Iām not convinced itās worth it against this type of player.
Hand #2
Spoiler
Game: 1/2/10/20
UTG (10k+ stack): Drunk and generating tons of action
BTN (2.5k): Aggro regular
Hero (2.8k): 4th blind
Preflop:
UTG opens to 75
BTN calls
Hero calls with A♥ K♠ 6♥ 7♣
Flop: 3♣ 4♦ 5♠ (Pot: 240)
Hero check
UTG bets 200
BTN calls
Hero calls
Turn: 3♣ 4♦ 5♠ 2♣ (Pot: 840)
Hero check
UTG bets 750
BTN calls
Hero shoves 2.4k
UTG calls
BTN folds
River: 3♣ 4♦ 5♠ 2♣ 2♠ (Pot: 6400)
Hero scoops with nut straight ā UTG had 66 blockers + turned clubs
Against this type of UTG player I feel flatting flop oop seems pretty good, he sees me quite tight so raising there would be definitely alarm bells on this mind. Even when we are 3 way there I think he continues a lot on the turn once he bet that flop. On turn I dont think I should lead so x/ship after the action seems the only play in my mind. Good to win a big pot!
Progress: 4,315 / 80,000
Fewer bad rivers this weekāprogress!
Good luck at the tables!
So, the month has wrapped upāand overall, it turned out to be a decent one. I was struggling through the first half of May, but luckily things turned around in the middle and I finally started stringing together some wins.
There were a few interesting hands, but I donāt remember all the details clearly anymore. Might need to start jotting them down right after the session if I want to include them here moving forward.
Graph:
Progress: 15,670 / 80,000
This month: fewer bad beats, more good vibes.
Weekly Update ā The Highs and Lows
Another week has passed. Put in the usual volume, but variance was definitely putting on a showāeither running red hot or completely card dead, no in-between. Thatās just how the sessions played out.
The good news: managed to end the week strong and inch even closer to the challenge goal!
Graph:
Progress: 21,865 / 80,000
Flopped the nuts, rivered reality ā still grinding
Weekly Update
First few days of the week were roughānearly booked my biggest losing day of the challenge. Thankfully, some late-session sun run came to the rescue and flipped the script.
Closed out the week strong, running well and playing solid. Logged the usual ~40 hours and feeling good about the overall progress.
Graph:
Progress: 30,825 / 80,000
Grind. Suffer. Sun-run. Repeat.
Weekly Update ā Sleep is the Real Boss
Sleep scheduleās been all over the place this week, and it definitely affected the grind. Played a bit less volume than usual while trying to reel things back in. Nothing too crazy happenedājust another week in the trenches.
The grind continues.
Progress: 32,300 / 80,000
Body says sleep, bankroll says one more orbit.
Another week in the books!
Put in solid volumeāaround 55 hoursābut ended up taking a small loss. Definitely played below par in a few sessions, and capped the week off with my biggest hit of the challenge so far: -4.5k in one session. Won a couple hands, but lost every flip that mattered. Thatās PLO for you.
Havenāt used Mastermind in a whileāwondering if there are any newer tools out there besides Mastermind or Monker to study? Would love to hear if anyoneās using something else lately.
Also thinking of dipping my toes into tournament PLO. Any recommendations on good courses or resources?
Graph:
Progress: 29,900 / 80,000
Keep on truckingāthrough flips, punts, and post-flop pain
Another week wrapped up. Played a bit lighter than usualāaround 35 hours total. Sessions were mostly uneventful, small ups and downs, but managed to finish slightly in the green.
That said, the last three weeks have been more or less break-even overall. Getting a year older now⦠so if the poker gods are listening, a little birthday run good wouldnāt hurt!
See you next weeeek!
Graph:
Progress: 33,920 / 80,000
Older, wiser, still flipping for rent.
Another week in the books. Played the least amount so far—sleep schedule has been completely random again. Trying (once more) to fix it... but when the late-night games are juicy, it’s tough to walk away. That’s the eternal struggle.
The last 4 weeks have been a breakeven grind—not exactly thrilling, but at least it’s not a downswing (yet). Been losing most of the 3 and 4-bet pots lately—flopping air or getting cracked. Standard PLO pain, still waiting for variance to throw me a bone.
On the bright side, I finally jumped back into Mastermind and started doing some work. Could (and should) do way more though. Grinding always feels easier than studying, but refreshing concepts definitely helps long-term.
Graph:
Progress: 30,430 / 80,000
Breakeven brain fog, powered by four-card delusion
Breakeven stretch continues! Had some wild sessions this week with huge swings, including my biggest losing session of the challenge so far at -5.2k. The games have been great, but variance has been relentless.
Played a few online tournaments on Sunday and managed to snag around +2k from them. Not sure yet if Iāll add online results to this challengeāvolume has been tiny so farābut I might start combining results at the end of the month.
Graph:
Progress: 30,330 / 80,000
One step back, one sun-run away from glory
One day I will win again! Currently feels like Iām stuck in a downswing. Itās not massive in terms of buy-ins, but this breakeven/swing stretch is dragging on and getting pretty unpleasant. Losing flips and sprinkling in some bad play definitely hasnāt helped.
From the highest point, Iām down over 10kāagain, not huge in buy-in termsābut this ~250-hour stretch feels long. If anyone plays live, whatās your biggest downswing or breakeven stretch? We never know when the end is coming, but hopefully the upswing is just around the corner.
All I can do is keep showing up and trying to play better. Until next weekās update!
Graph:
Progress: 24,045 / 80,000
Grinding, bleeding, but not folding.
Didnāt put in too much volume this weekāaround 20 hours total. Took the weekend off to visit a friend in Kelowna for the first time. Beautiful place with awesome views and a laid-back vibe. Definitely worth a visit, and a reminder I should travel more around Canada. One day!
Poker-wise, managed to climb a bit out of the hole. Nothing major, but progress is progress. This coming week, it's back on the grind. Iām a little behind the original pace, but itās still very doable.
As alwaysājust show up and put in the work. Hopefully, the rest will follow.
Progress: 30,365 / 80,000
Refreshed, refocused, and ready to chase the run good.
Weekly Update ā Still in the Stretch
Another short week of grindingāplayed around 22 hours total. The week started strong after a solid weekend, but Friday brought a wave of frustration with my game. Only played a quick two-hour session that day. The tables didnāt look great, and being annoyed with my play, I decided to call it.
Took Saturday off to relax a bit more and reset. This week, Iāll be back in action and doing my best to climb again. Right now, Iām in the biggest breakeven stretch of the challengeāclose to 300 hoursāso hopefully I can finally break through it soon.
Graph:
Progress: 32,440 / 80,000
300 hours of breakevenāvariance clearly wants a longer relationship
Weekly Update ā Monster Pots & Missed Sun Runs
Weeks are going by but cash is not coming in! Can I still beat this game?
Dollar-wise, this week looked like the lastādown a bit overall, with the breakeven stretch dragging on. But Saturday brought some fireworks: probably the craziest session Iāve ever had, including the biggest pot of my life so far. And since variance still has me in its grip⦠of course I lost it. On top of that, I dropped a few more big ones in the same session. What could have easily been a +20k night with a little run good ended up as a small losing day. I have to be happy with taking the right spotsābut damn, itād be nice to win a few of these monsters again.
Outside of the cards, the sleep schedule is still a wreck. Every day it drifts later by a couple hours, so by Sunday Iām waking up around 5ā6pm, then spending Sunday/Monday trying to reset. Ideally, Iād play tournaments on Sundays, but it hasnāt worked out with these late starts. I know discipline is key in the long run, and I am improving compared to past yearsāplaying more live hours than everābut thereās still a long way to go.
The big one:
Game: 1/2/10/35 PLO
Stacks: Me ~7k, BB ~4k, Straddle ~5.5k
UTG+1: I open $120 with A644ds
BB calls
Straddle 3bets $495 → we both call
Flop: T66r (1500)
Straddle bets $1,450 → I call, BB folds
Turn: Kr (4400)
Villain checks → I shove $3.6k → he calls
River: T (11600)
Villain shows JT97 for rivered trips. Iām cooked.
At first I thought he only had a T + gutshot, but he actually had a double gutter.
Two orbits later, I tangled with the same player again:
I had AA43ds vs his AKJ7ccc → he flops K77, I lose another ~7k pot.
Later, I get it in with AAKTss vs his 6543ss for ~2.5k → lose again.
With a little run good, it could have been the best session of the challenge. Instead, it turned into a beating. At least the guy I lost to was a really nice playerāheāll be back, and Iāll be there when variance flips sides.
Outside of poker, Iāve been thinking more about starting something on the sideābusiness, project, whatever it might be. Got a few ideas, but if anyone wants to throw out random thoughts or share what theyāre working on, Iām all ears.
Graph:
Progress: 30,285 / 80,000
Biggest pots of my lifeāvariance made sure I only got the receipts
Weekly Update ā Groundhog Weeks
Weeks go by, but dollars are not coming in!
Another week, another repeat of the same story. Life feels like Groundhog Dayābut instead of days, itās weeks. Win a little one week, dump it the next. One day Iāll break that cycle again!
Iāve been trying to shift more focus online lately. I actually prefer playing online, but grinding long hours behind the computer feels tougher than sitting for 8 hours straight at a live table. For now, a mix of both seems like the best balance.
Keeping this one shortānext update should be a bit lengthier as Iām expecting some new things both in poker and in life.
Graph:
Progress: 29,775 / 80,000
Weekly Update ā Volume Low, Spirits Up
Short one this week. Didnāt put in much volume again, with a bit more focus on online.
On the bright side, I think Iāve found the perfect solution to downswings: if you donāt play, you canāt lose, right? 😅 Luckily, still managed to book a win for the week.
Next weekās update should be longerāsome new things are coming up, and bigger posts take a bit more thought. This thread was always meant to keep me accountable, not to write a book (for now).
Graph:
Progress: 33,875 / 80,000
Small volume, small wināvariance canāt catch me if I donāt log on





































