From Micros to Midstakes: Slow and Consistent Wins
Hello, first of all, I want to skip major introductions, only because I had a thread before (that I allowed to die) wher
Another example of why training is important: Since the most important sizing we face on the flop BB vs BTN is the b33, I am training this consistently, while more or less trying to calibrate/wing it on the fly for the other ones. My defense vs b33 is on the point, but, guess what, I'm overcalling by 6.1% facing a b75. Just because I am biased to defending due to the constant training of the small cbet, when the b75 is way more equity driven and optimally we can even fold slightly more than equilibrium if I would guess.
My flop leak facing cbets before training was overfolding vs small cbets and overcalling vs the big ones btw 😀
Last 3 days. Ran good today, ended up looking at the graph, so here it is:
Cheers!
Last 6 days. In the middle of a downswing right now.
Downswings give me motivation to put more volume (did 2 >1k hands days, yesterday and today). Which is not a good thing necessarily. But I was in a very decent upswing, which was making me autopilot and play in a state of complacency. Which is not good either. All in all, as long as they motivate us to not only play more, but play smarter (still pay attention to the tables, and if they are not good, no point in putting the volume in), and also hit the lab harder, downswings are intrinsically better.
As long as we emerge stronger in the end, due to the good things the downswings bring to the mindset, evbb/100s should improve, which should bring more money in the long run. And making money eventually, the more the better, makes me happy.
Cheers!
Moved entirely back to 25nl by the way, will keep 100% there til I get out of this hole.
So, I decided to move away from Stars and focus on GG only from now on. Have nothing to do with the run bad. Simply put, Pokerstars lowstakes games are awful, few good tables, seat me only option that constantly leads to only regs table, and worse, time punishment if we just don't accept whatever terrible table they sit me. I'm not against punishment for leaving a table I voluntarily chose to sit, and I never leave after the rec leaves anyway, that's just disrespectful, but c'mon, things the way they are now are just ridiculous. If you want everything zoom, then make it zoom. Making regular tables even worse than zoom won't save your fkn site 😃
Enough complaining hehe. GG is far from perfect. But they obviously are doing some of the things right, otherwise they wouldn't be leaders. And, negatives and positives side by side, I come with the conclusion that it's acceptable to play there even if I take a (small) cut from my winrate. What this cut will be after I make a decent sample will be the final decider on whether I stay there or leave again.
October Results
Pokerstars:
GG:
So, I have an opinion on GG, and I would like to grind there for a full month, at least, to try to prove if this opinion is true or not. I will reveal what this opinion is and my final conclusions after I grind my sample.
GLGL everyone, let's crush November!
Back to pokerstars:
Month so far (stars sample):
I have seen many ghosts since I started downswing/breakevening. Interestingly, I wasn't seeing those ghosts at most of my last month's play, nor I am seeing them now. And, you know, ghosts do not exist.
How do I reconcile all this? Am I getting crazy?
Nope. I am not entitled to be the only reg who can run good. Other people can, and will, rungood. Prople get good cards at the same frequency I do, so grow up, stop crying, wait til your time comes again and, other than that, deal with it as an adult in the most professional way you can.
*Also, let's make this the last time that I come whining because of a 7-8 BI downswing, this is terrible and quite disrespectful. I had to get this out of my head though, sorry my friends 😀
Gonna post the (bad) results of my GG adventure in some future update, but let's just say that, as bad as stars is right now, GG is still not good 😃
> seat me only option that constantly leads to only regs table, and worse, time punishment if we just don't accept whatever terrible table they sit me.
so on stars, u press sit randomly button, and they sit you, then if you want to leave early u can't or something?
> But they obviously are doing some of the things right, otherwise they wouldn't be leaders.
The reason they are leaders is because they allow players from virtually every single country in the world, which i think is a really good thing.
> And, negatives and positives side by side, I come with the conclusion that it's acceptable to play there even if I take a (small) cut from my winrate. What this cut will be after I make a decent sample will be the final decider on whether I stay there or leave again.
I don't watch too much streamers etc on stars but i think GG has a different feel in it as in you gotta play differently on GG, like i just feel like pool is different, i don't base this on any data but just the feeling. May be talk to good regs who play both stars and gg?
> seat me only option that constantly leads to only regs table, and worse, time punishment if we just don't accept whatever terrible table they sit me.so on stars, u press sit randomly button, and they sit you, then if you want to leave early u can't or something?
It plays differently. It is softer though, and I told you why I think this happens on discord. Regs just don't put you in so many difficult spots, and they are also quite more passive than their stars counterparts. It is a more relaxed game, as weak tight games usually tend to feel, at least to me.
^ OK
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I sometimes feel like i miss out on some stuff for not having HUD on GG, did that make a difference in terms of play/exploatition etc, i see that it is not something that is talked a lot but may be important. I have never played with hud but i sometimes feel it would be great.
^ OK
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I sometimes feel like i miss out on some stuff for not having HUD on GG, did that make a difference in terms of play/exploatition etc, i see that it is not something that is talked a lot but may be important. I have never played with hud but i sometimes feel it would be great.
The most important thing to me is being able to categorize who is a fish and who is a reg, and the proto-hud they offer on GG is perfectly fine for this type of use.
I do miss a key stat I've been using a lot on stars tho: river bet%. While the majority of pokerstars regs nowadays play aggressive on average, there is a small but still important subset of that group that bets little, 30% or less, and in almost all lines and formations they basically never have enough bluffs 😃 Obviously if you're trying to maximize winrate, not adjusting and playing the average strategy won't maximize it because facing this group, you will always lose when bluffcatching.
Other than that, I feel pretty safe transfering the reads I have on stars pool to GG, and just adding a few points for the nittiness/weaktightness scale.
I would assume it's way more likely that the regs on GG are betting close to the 30% mark on the river, than the 40%. Seems a safe assumption to me, until I'm proven wrong.
> The most important thing to me is being able to categorize who is a fish and who is a reg, and the proto-hud they offer on GG is perfectly fine for this type of use.
Interesting, i sometimes feel like it would be useful to know how often they cbet etc. For you since you study MDA stuff just distinguishing whether they are fish or reg is enough to have an idea about their general stats, right?
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Also will you post a start to date graph?(from start of your challenge to today)
A good player/coach once told me recreationals do what they do because of preflop. So, at least on average, they will end up doing what I expect them to do. Sometimes I will be wrong vs some of them, but as long as I'm right against the average, I think it is still better than fine tuning anything from a 30 hand sample hud, where the uncentainty will be what, +- 15% of whatever the stat is showing? I believe playing by the profile in this case will always be more accurate, and also simpler/require less mental energy in game.
Sure, here it is:
Pokerstars:
GG:
Main stake is 25nl, but there are smaller portions of 50nl mixed in both sites. No hand played above or below that.
Okay cool, seem to be going fine so far. GOOD LUCK!!!
what are those stars mean in the graph btw?
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/29/ne...
I take this back entirely.
See, when solvers came a lot of people became obssessed, either in trying to find ways to emulate the solver, or complaining how poker would be dead soon given how good everyone would become.
What actually ended up happening is that a decent chunk of the players became quite obssessed, to the point where they would be playing their pseudo-GTO strategies without paying attention to what villains were actually doing. As, if they did and started deviating, they would become exploitable again, and this was the cardinal sin.
Why should we not expect that, for the average player, what will actually happen now is just that those same average regs will become obssessed with their own exploit-the-pool gameplan, and again, not pay attention to what their villains are really trying to do, or how those same exploits are now opening them up to even newer counter-exploits?
I believe that the flawed approach that leads to the least imbalances will always be the better one, so the pioneers of the solver era were still better. And I have no reason to be concerned/scared 😃
Cheers!
Finishing the month:
GGPoker + Pokerstars
BBs:
Would be profitable if only stars btw. We know the rake is high on GG, and rake acts as gravity. Pool on GG is also softer, which should counteract things a bit, although never fully. No sure how accurate is that scale of running good/running bad on pokercraft, it says I am running bad. Might just be because I am losing, or because I am running below EV, who knows. It seems to me I am not running the greatest. Last but not least, a decent part of the softness on GG is due to the regulars being considerably worse (read, they are nits), I don't even see that many ukrainians/belarrussians/greeks, that are usually the annoying guys/girls on stars. There is fish obviously, and some are terribly bad, but a nitty pool on the aggregate shouldn't be the most profitable ever when you factor high rake.
I don't have a fully informed opinion yet on which site is the winner, I know that one of them is doing everything in their power to shrink the pool and kill the games, the other acts in a shadier way but at least seems to be doing something to keep the games alive.
Won't play tomorrow nor the December, 1st, but I'll be back in the 2nd.
Cheers!
Not playing higher when you can is a bigger leak than you think, as someone whos done it too
