Realistic WinRate
Hello Guys,
I feel like there isn't enough discussion concerning realistic win rates over a long sample. I am particularly interested in win rates at nl100 and nl200 6max cash game (Europe). Does it make sense playing on GG poker considering the high rake? How much can an average regular with average IQ, that understands the logic of the game, maintains a good bankroll management, is able to somewhat control his emotions (nobody is perfect obviously) and can grind around 750k hands per year but isn't particularly talented, realistically expect to make post rake back at nl100. I am aware that the question is difficult to answer due to so many variables but I would like to hear some of your thoughts on the subject.
I've played at nl25 on GG poker two years ago and I found the game to be particularly stressful albeit to some extent through my own fault ( tilted a lot especially when losing against weaker/spewy opposition). I'm not sure how many hands I've played, it had to be around a little less than a million and in the end I made around 9k dollars altogether but have also been lucky with jackpots,( I think I won two, now if I hadn't won those I'd be winning much less). Once I went to nl50 I was breaking even for 4 months straight and in the end even had a loss of 400$, not sure how many hands I played, probably around 60k - really frustrating. I know people keep saying that the money they take away from you to finance the prize pool for the jackpot is given back to you once you win the jackpot, but if you are unlucky you might not ever win it and the money you do contribute could be the difference between breaking even and slightly winning and we all know how frustrating it can be when you remain break even for a long period of time or are losing.
Then I decided to try playing on Champion Poker (I poker network) at nl50. I played around 250k hands and made 4125euro. From hand 130k to hand 250k I've barely made any money. Running break even for over 100k hands can be really frustrating and really starts to put doubts in your head. The regulars at nl50 were pretty aggressive and seemed to have some idea how to make your life hell when you played against them, not to say they were unbeatable.
I then decided to withdraw my money, had 60 euros left and decided to play some sit n goes and smaller nl10 and nl20; I somehow managed to increase my stack to 1,100 euros but then lost it all by playing nl50 and nl100 tables, mostly because of negative variance, probably also made some bad plays, but no obvious punts. I am not sure how many hands I played at nl100 or if I have net win/loss, haven't tracked it because I had the low stakes PT4.
I would really like to hear someone's thoughts on how much I can make at nl100, say on I poker or GG poker if I play from 750k to 1m hands and is it enough to overcome the variance at these stakes.
I am in sort of a dilemma whether I should try and grind or just go find myself a job. The problem is regular 9-5 jobs don't pay so well in my country, around 1200e net.
I understand grinding is hard but so is working a dead beat job for 8 hours a day with no real future. Was thinking of studying accounting, programming or data analysis but that will take so much time to perfect and I am not exactly in my early 20's. One thing in my favour is I do have lots of time and a decent bankroll, so I don't have to worry about going broke in the near future.
Will appreciate any input.
7 Replies
GG has high rake and your paying into the bbj jackpot but alot of other sites have raised the rake as well. At the micros, the rake is high everywhere.
Lowest rake in the industry at 200NL is ACR but pool is filled with bots and good regulars. They do have decent RB program though and can get more via an agent.
You can check a rake chart like this one:
The difference in rake between 25NL and 100NL or 200NL is massive so you should grind wherever makes the most sense for you.
You could get a job and grind poker part time at low rake site such as pokerstars 25 or 50NL. This is the fastest way to get to 100 or 200NL imo and probably better to just play low volume and study a lot, while building your BR working a job.
If you have to be full time and can't get a job - Going with GG makes sense if you can grind a lot of volume with their RB and leaderboard promotion. The hands come in fast, the ui is great, etc. Being a full time micro stakes grinder is miserable though so expect long breakeven stretches and don't plan on spending any money in your personal life.
Interesting topic — it’s always hard to pin down what a “realistic” winrate means nowadays.
So many factors play a role: table selection, rakeback deals, time zones, even tilt control.
I’ve seen solid players posting 3–5 bb/100 over large samples, but it really depends on the game structure and mindset.
Was thinking of studying accounting, programming or data analysis but that will take so much time to perfect and I am not exactly in my early 20's.
Will appreciate any input.
Wasnt gonna comment as im a bad poker player with no idea about winrates, but im also a bad programmer - and guess what, i made a career in it. I believe that unless you somehow have an innate talent specifically for poker, ie you have to build yourself from a low level and work for it, you would have an easier time making it in another career, and programming isnt the hardest thing compared to the money you get (im also in a poorer country, and people in IT make way more than everyone else here). It is not that hard, and depending on your job market you could finish a course and get a job as a junior programmer, and then learn on the job all the way up. Caveat - i havent really been looking for a job for a while and obviously i dont know where you live and what your conditions are, and also depending on your age some companies might be reluctant to hire an older guy into a junior position.
I couldnt tell you how many piss poor programmers i encounter in my job, including those working in higher positions (i dont count myself piss poor, but im not a good one either). If you arent like bottom 20%, you will make money with no variance, and you know what they say - 90% of poker players are losers.
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Thanks for everyones input.
I tried to learn programming but didn't really enjoy it so I decided not to do it. I also had frequent headaches from looking at the codes.
I am currently slowly beating NL100 6max and am planing to soon move to NL200, does it make sense to transition to Nl200 GGpoker now that they changed the rakeback system. I would aim to play at least 750k hands per year.
Also, when you talk about winrate , do you mean 3-5 pre or post-rakeback? I can barely manage to hit 3bb+ winrate over a meaningful sample.
Thanks and good luck!
Thanks for everyones input.I tried to learn programming but didn't really enjoy it so I decided not to do it. I also had frequent headaches from looking at the codes.I am currently slowly beating NL100 6max and am planing to soon move to NL200, does it make sense to transition to Nl200 GGpoker now that they changed the rakeback system. I would aim to play at least 750k hands pe
3bb after everything is fine. I would suggest to never play on GG, unless u are top 1% and u want to trade potential winning with volume.
The GG rake system is brutal, their promo targets eliminating basically anyone winning. Its like a dynamic rakeback system, they calculate ur true winrate over time and it will only provide rakeback that leaves u somewhat -1bb to 1-2bb/100 after all.
Most leaderboard grinders spend 12-16 a day to have a decent ranking, but GGpoker will make sure that these grinders eat dirt by reducing their PVI, reducing their chance at winning stacks in their 100k daily flipout.
Save urself from burning out, its not worth it.
