Calculation of Hero winrate by villain's bb/100 in HU

Calculation of Hero winrate by villain's bb/100 in HU

Good day everyone, for several days I have been trying to find the answer to the question: How to Calculate Hero win rate using villain's bb/100 which can be found in H2N tracker? In H2N on starting page you can see all opponents and they winrates, but you cannot see exactly what winrate have Hero vs specific opponent, only what winrate has that opponent vs Hero. Small note, that i'm talking about specifically HUNL game type, so all villain's hands were played only vs Hero (i'm not using mining). If we are playing in no rake with rake environment you can just use simple formula "Opponent winrate * (-1) = Hero winrate vs opponent ", but as we paying rake, calculating becomes more difficult. I asked H2N support this question, but they did not give a clear answer, but clarified that the “win rate” and “won in total” already include rake.
So, how to calculate hero winrate vs specific opponent using villain's winrate with rake environment (let's quess that we are playing with an average rake is 10bb/100)?
I tried to do it in different ways and came to assumption that formula of calculation Hero winrate vs opponent will be: villain's winrate * (-1) (coefficient for determining the Hero's win rate) - rake that payed by villain - rake that payed by hero. For example, vs opponent with 15bb/100 winrate calculation will be: 15bb/100 (villain's winrate) *(-1) (coefficient) - 10bb (rake that payed by villain) - 10bb (rake that payed by hero) = -35bb/100 is Hero's winrate vs this opponent. I came to this formula because 15bb/100 it`s villain's winrate after rake, but pre rake it will be 25bb/100, so Hero are loosing vs villain -25bb/100, plus hero also are paying rake so its plus -10bb/100. If opponent's winrate will be negative, but not positive as in previous example, for example -25bb/100, the calculation will look like this: -25bb/100 (villain's winrate) *(-1) (coefficient) - 10bb (rake that payed villain) - 10bb (rake that payed hero)) = 5bb/100 is Hero's winrate vs this opponent, so formula remains the same. Or for simplicity we can just take the exact opposite number from what we see in the opponent's win rate number (which is equivalent to multiplying by -1) and subtract from it the sum of both players' rake (or one player's rake multiplied by 2).
So, in order to "beat the rake" in HU with a 10bb/100 rake, Hero would have to play 10bb+/100 better than his opponent, which equates to at least -20bb/100 (and below) his opponent's win rate stat, which you can see in H2N. Right?

All seems pretty logical by this way, but I’m not 100% sure that I came to the right conclusions, since I’m not sure that I used the right method for this. Therefore, I ask you to confirm or refute the correctness of the formula and conclusions that I received as a result. I'd be glad to read any answers.

13 January 2024 at 01:28 AM
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