Why do they always have the overcard? & what to do about it?

Variance and selective memory

Well, it's not 'always' an overcard though is it. The probabilities are what they are regardless of how it 'seems' to you.

Given that you hold a 10, there are 19 cards higher than 9 still left in a deck of 47 cards post-flop... so there's 42% chance the turn card will be higher than a 9, and a 12% chance for them to pair one of their hole cards IF they're higher than 9.

Those are the probabilities, it's carved in stone.

You're either experiencing variance or a cognitive bias of some kind.

It's just rigged bro

Suggestion to mods, move this to "Psychology"

I understand TS perfectly, and even after 10 years of playing, this is a problem for me. An important point here is that I am a station and I suspect that TS is too, so we often see the opponent hitting the over in situations where he bets vs us. While it's not a problem for others to throw out the top pair, which became the second to a big bet, for me it's absurd, even if the flash draw is closed.
By the way, I've been worried about a similar situation lately - when I have a dopper+ on the flop, the board turns into **** by the turn/river, like a 4 straight/flush, and it doesn't matter if the opp has something or not - we either paying him or we can't gather value. Or opp just suck out his 1-10%. I will note that I play spins in which spr is close to 1. I'm gonna analyze my base and if my feelings haven't let me down, I'll create a thread.
So TS, you're not alone)

Maybe understand a few things about spots like this:

1. There are 16 overcards to this board. The probability of one hitting the turn is 16/47, just a bit over 1/3. This means seeing an overcard is going to happen quite a bit. If you throw in the river the probability of seeing an overcard on either the turn or river is 31/47 x 30/46 or a bit under 57%

2. Having seen these probabilities you should take that into account. Since you likely will see an overcard and your hand value plummets when you do, you need to understand that “top pair” is not really a poker hand. Not all top pairs are created equally. Top pair on a ten high board just doesn’t have the same equity or EV as top pair on a K high board. You should play it accordingly, including possibly playing a bit less strongly when you have the lower top pair.

3. This especially is true in spots like your example. Not only do you have a small top pair that likely is vulnerable, but you have a crappy kicker. Hands like ATo, ATs, and KTs are likely in villainÂ’s range in spots like these.

4. When villain calls, why do you think it’s “some crap”? Even if he is calling with two overs and a back door flush draw, that is actually a legitimate call. This is especially true if you have been seen overplaying your weak top pair hands like this one. I’m not saying to not bet the flop, but if you are continuing your aggression ott or otr with such hands, or if you are over calling, such holdings certainly gain in value

Usually this is more prevalent with preflop hands (“Why do my aces always get cracked?!) but IMO it seems like you are experiencing entitlement tilt. “I flopped well so I deserve to win the pot”. Sorry, but the turn and river count too.

EDIT - for some reason I was thinking the posted example was a T high flop, not a 9-high one, and I calculated the probabilities accordingly. This doesn’t change anything about my post; it only makes your top pair even weaker and more vulnerable. If you are insisting on betting and/or calling after that overcard hits (and it likely will), you are overplaying your hand.

- It is still a real good hand.

Let's take 97o on a 953 board. My problem with you calling this hand weak and vulnerable, is that, well what else are you waiting for? That's actually a premium god damn flop.

I hope you understand that if you slightly meh on this hand, all that is left is 2 to 5% of other flops, aka two pairs+.

I dont need to look at hold em odds to know that k10 with a backdoor flush is a -ev call there. If I was to call k10 consistently there I promise you I'd be losing endless trunks of money. So thats why I call it a trash hand. I understand the backdoor and backing to a pair potential and sometimes I do it, but its something I rarely do, because it sucks, does feel good when it hits. I find poker players less experienced than me are more willing to call with these hands, making me generalize them into disgusting calling stations. Also I will see the random Q3 off backing into a turned top pair from these players that are call happy.

Back to my salt, what are you waiting for? I dont feel looking at the exact data so allow me to grossly generalize, let's say you got 1-2% of flopping worthy hand (97 on 865), 5% of flopping cool hands (97 on 973), and 12% of flopping a good hand (97 on 953). All the rest is either a complete miss (most of the flops) or a wtf am I doing here (97 on 9KA).

now lets put this in a realistic set up, because I am already unlikely to **** around with 97o, so heads up opening small blind against a call happy big blind.

heads up, 97, on a 953Q board, its supposed to be a confusingly good hand, no? its heads up god dammit, he litteraly could have 2-5, a3, kq, j8, whatever)

now I do understand and agree with what you said, it is vulnerable and stuff, in fact I already foreseen your kind of answer, so I will repeat the question I had about it.

lets say you play it standart.

97

953 (bet)

953Q (check)

my problem with this line is that, nik airball as the villain loves to bet that turn with air. by nik airball I mean, the aggressive happy bluffy types, and the not so aggressive and bluff happy but they do it sometimes anyway. the fat insecure ego-seeking somewhat loose regular poker player loooooooooves to bet that turn.

after all, it does look like I have exactly what im representing, a pair of nines that doesnt look too happy to see a queen and may fold on a float/bet or double barrel bluff.

so how do you suggest playing it? check fold looks easy to exploit both ways, easy to b'uff away, and easy to get value from, bet we can somewhat agree is an overplay, and check call I woûd personaly argue might be an overplay too, but what am I waiting for then.. I especially dislike the check call turn because I feel the river bet from villain is too likely... so what do you suggest to keep the equity? seems like all options have a downside

ps, side note other cards are not really good either, like 97, on 9535, seems realistic that he called the flop with middle pair and backed into trips

so yeah, really lost in the conundrum of wanting to play good hands only, but we will totally end up having a solid equity with a weak top pair that is rare enough to be way more than good enough... and I feel that folding what is now a turned middle pair is too tight according to a general view of it being lucky enough, yet check calling also seems like a very bad option, check folding also seems bad

so yes I will add more thoughts to this hand being vulnerable and play accordingly but still looking for more of what you'd like to add, and is still foggy to me as to what to do on the turn, since all options seems to be a mistake, and even adding player profiling to that decision may be not enough (aka hes a known bluffer, doesnt mean he doesnt mostly have it here, hes generally tight, doesnt mean he isnt bluffing here since its such an open book play with a check that may seem tasty to bet into)

1. You've discovered that it's hard to realize equity OOP, congrats.

2. If you think all options have a downside, you're indifferent between them, and that means your opponent is perfectly balancing his value and bluffs. In that case, you can flip a coin and you won't lose EV.

3. The easy, but maybe slightly lower EV route, would be to just check range on the flop vs boards that aren't highly favorable to the preflop raiser.

**** you

lol, everything he wrote is true.

There is also an element of showdown bias: the times they don't hit their overcard, the hand is less likely to go to showdown (eg you bet again and they fold).

So naturally, when it does go to showdown, it feels like they have it all the time.

Rep 2p+ and x/jam range