Calling Thresholds PFC OTT vs Polarised bet on 4-flush board
Hey everybody,
I came across an interesting result that I’m trying understand.
PRE: LJ OR 2bb, BB CALL
OTF: Q♠T♠5♠ - BB Check, LJ B33%, BB Call
OTT: 4♠ - BB Check, LJ B125%:
As PFC OTT facing 125% PSB, solver suggests:
Pure calling hands like 93s (9♠3♠) and even 63s (6♠3♠), which are lower flushes.
Mixing or even folding hands like AKo with the K♠ (king-high flush).
It seems strange that we are folding or mixing with a higher flush (K♠) while calling pure with a lower flush (9♠3♠ or 6♠3♠).
I came to think that this happens for couple of reasons:
Bluffs Blocking Effects – AKo (K♠) blocks Villain’s natural bluffs like K♠Jx, K♠Tx, etc., which reduces the number of bluffs in their range, therefore having more value more often.
Flushes Blocking Effects - When having 6♠3♠ for instance, we block villain from having A♠9♠, A♠3♠, K♠9♠, J♠9♠, 9♠8♠, 9♠9x, 3♠3x...
Does this logic make sense to you? What am I missing?
Screenshot filters only Offsuit hands with a Spade or Suited Hands with spades.
Second screenshot shows that K-high flush when holding AKo, Ks has lower EQ (58%) than 6♠3♠ (61%)
1 Reply
Bluffs Blocking Effects – AKo (K♠) blocks Villain’s natural bluffs like K♠Jx, K♠Tx, etc., which reduces the number of bluffs in their range, therefore having more value more often.
K♠Jx is a flush lol. So we do want to block it.
The key difference is that 6♠3♠ has two clean cards, while AKo only has one. 6♠3♠ will never block any bluffs, but the offsuit ace will block some. And this skews villain's betting range towards value.
