How to tell if we are running bad?
Everybody knows that losing might trigger negative emotions. It might cloud our judgement.. so how do we then decide if we are running bad or it if we are in the "normal" range of variance and not the "worst" part of it?
How do we tell if we are playing very badly or just running bad (atm perhaps)?
Is there stats (PT4/HM3) you guys use for this?
I know the all in adj can help somewhat but what is the "normal" range for this? 10 stacks after 50k hands?
What are your thoughts on this?
7 Replies
Since you can theoretically run bad for 300k hands I'd say the best thing you can rely on is your confidence in your game. If you're constently whinning about how unlucky you are or if you're avoiding every good reg you're playing with then it's often a good sign that you are not only running bad
You would need to review your hands individually and/or your overall stats to see if you're playing differently than you have been/should be.
So in general this is very tough to determine, right?
I mean you can't analyse all the hands individually.. just too many
How good of a indicator is All in adj for "how bad/good" you run?
What's normal here? When my all in adj is 10 stacks below or higher? For how many hands etc?
So in general this is very tough to determine, right?
I mean you can't analyse all the hands individually.. just too many
How good of a indicator is All in adj for "how bad/good" you run?
What's normal here? When my all in adj is 10 stacks below or higher? For how many hands etc?
I would say a bit better than your green line in general... but I mean there is a huge range. You can also look at "luck bell curve" on PT4, but I don't really know how reliable that is either. It would show your distribution of flushes/straights/sets. I do not know how it is calculated though.
What is that telling us? How often we get flushes, straights and sets compared to other people?
Interesting but I think not an indicator of downswings or not..
do you know of any other stats except the ones you mentioned?
I feel like all in adj is the only way to tell :(
What is that telling us? How often we get flushes, straights and sets compared to other people?
Interesting but I think not an indicator of downswings or not..
do you know of any other stats except the ones you mentioned?
I feel like all in adj is the only way to tell :(
Well there is a number of ways to run bad. You could run bad with your preflop card distribution, postflop card distribution (flush/straight/sets), you could run bad with your bluffs or bluff catchers, you could get coolered multiple times, you could run bad in terms of aiev, you could run bad in terms of positioning on fish at a table, against fish at a table, etc.
So, pretty much yeah you're going to have to review hands to see. Most beginners/new players and honestly even intermediate or very good players have a significant bias and sort of always feel like they are running bad unless they are just sun running. Really though it doesn't matter much as it is out of your control. Just review your hands and focus on playing well.
I guess you are absolutely right. One needs somebdoy to review your hands. I think one is always biased until you reach a certain level
