Help explaining odd GTO wizard river 3-bet jam?

Here's a link to the spot in GTO Wizard....

You're worried about monsters under the bed. Ranges are wide and BB is full of trash.

After flop checks through, BB has a straight or better only 6% of the time:

And on the river when they raise your block-bet, they are mostly representing a pair of 9s for value:

I understand they raised preflop, but you're treating this as if it were a tight formation like a 3-bet pot scenario. BB is supposed to raise pre with complete garbage like T2o. Both players checked down to the river. Trips are nutted here.

Yeah most players would not find thin enough value raises here. A nice exploit in these XX-XX lines is to block-bet-call all your showdown value, including hands as weak as 22. If they aren't finding thin value raises, then their raising range is mostly air.

Here's a demonstration. Watch what happens to SB's range if we keep the rest of BB's raising range the same, but force them to call with middling pairs instead of raise:

• GTO
  
• Nodelocked
  

You could also argue that you don't think players in your pool will raise trash when it limps to them. Therefore they won't get to this river with enough air. And if that's the case, then I'd say why are you limping KJ in the first place? Just exploit them preflop by open-raising your strong hands and limping in with all your weak hands.

Thanks so much for the analysis! I'll take the time to look into your charts in detail, and I guess a takeaway is that SB vs BB plays way way looser than other earlier spots such as UTG v Button. I've always struggled to implement the SB vs BB preflop strategies myself honestly, and resort to simply raising good hands and folding bad ones on the SB. Apparently you're supposed to do all sorts of weird things with different hands in blind vs blind. Is there a simplified way to approach these spots or does it just get better with practice/experience?

I think the main issue in your case is just adjusting value thresholds and learning to play wider ranges. Try practicing a bit of HU cash, you'll feel it out.

Admire you seeking why solver does what it does, rather than accepting this is what you do.

My guess:
In the 1st example, you’re turning top pair into a bluff, (claiming the flush) with a 1/2 pot bet pressuring villain to respond. If he doesn’t raise, you will give him no credit for a straight or a flush.
In the 2nd example, you almost certainly have the best hand. Again, when villain doesn’t bet the turn, he likely has no made straight or flush. So, the river was no help to him.