Big difference between Ev and Adj EV
Hello. I have around 350k hand sample that i feel like i am running terrible. Its one of the biggest swing in my career. At the same time i also loose so may preflop. Today when i check it i see results like that and try to understand if it mathematicly possible to have a results like that? Because from my calculations its not that possible but i am not Math expert.
3 Replies
Yes, it is possible.
From my calculation if i count that my equity avg is around %50 problity around %0.18.
350k is a real sample but variance can still produce gaps like that over even longer stretches than most people expect. I ran a variance calculator during a rough patch a few years ago and found I was sitting about 12 buyins below EV across 180k hands, which felt mathematically impossible at the time but was completely within normal ranges when I actually modeled it. Worth checking if your all-in spots are genuinely neutral or if you're systematically getting it in slightly behind in certain hand categories, because that compounds the pain on top of pure run bad.
