$25----->25k Bankroll Challenge on Ignition

have another fun hand here lol.. kinda freestyled this one not sure if this play is a punt or not but seems like his range is capped and air heavy and mine is not

Yatahay Network - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 100 BB
SB: 319.6 BB
BB: 125.2 BB
UTG: 102.56 BB
Hero (MP): 100 BB
CO: 117.12 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Q♥ A♥

fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, CO calls 2 BB, fold, SB raises to 11.8 BB, fold, Hero calls 9.8 BB, fold

Flop: (26.6 BB, 2 players) 7♦ T♠ 8♠
SB checks, Hero bets 5.04 BB, SB calls 5.04 BB

Turn: (36.68 BB, 2 players) 7♥
SB checks, Hero checks

River: (36.68 BB, 2 players) K♦
SB bets 26.68 BB, Hero raises to 83.16 BB and is all-in

Yeah it's good. Solver won't like it because Tx is 0EV and you block it but solver outputs are really unrealistic in these spots.

I don't have exact data for it since it's squeezed but I do have BlindsvsCO XC30-X-B Range and Folding Range.

We see Folding Frequencies at 68% (173 hand sample but the discrepancy is too big) in XC30-X-B70F

At 100bb stacks and assume 12bb 3bet the alpha should be risk/risk+reward or 80 to win 70 so 53% or so. You have a 15% cushion 😀

Nice hand.

A cool thing you can do as well is compare the bluff catching formula to the bluff raising formula

Bluff catching formula = Edge (call + bet + pot)
Bluff raising formula = Edge (raise + bet + pot)

You can see really quickly how raising is much better than calling - even with your 0EV bluff catchers.

If he is 30 weak in GTO at B70 and 33 weak in reality your edge is 3%

If Alpha is 53% and they fold 68% your edge is 15% with the bluff raise.

This proves bluff raising will always be better than bluff catching with 0EV hands.

In Ether Patrick Howard talks about showdown bias, now I haven't seen anyone correctly calculate it for an exact spot but it won't exceed 5% so showdown bias is not viable argument for just calling imo.

awesome analysis thanks man, I thought about calling but it felt bad since we chop with AQ which prob bluffs the K river high frequency and obv pure folds to jam. I think the pairing turn helps since I have a ton of boats that check back turn (and I do x boats alot on turn in game so I won't just have a bluff here xD)

If you aren't sure what to do in this spot check out this video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ApG7gM34plQ&t=7s

YouTube

Hand History Review using MDA for every street

This hand explained using GTO Wizard and some MDA.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
HERO ($30) [VPIP: 28.3% | PFR: 23.6% | AGG: 37.8% | Flop Agg: 39.9% | Turn Agg: 35.3% | River Agg: 42.1% | 3Bet: 10.6% | Fold to 3Bet: 55.7% | 4Bet: 12% | Hands: 144443]
SB ($37.22) [VPIP: 50% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 2]
BB ($19.18) [VPIP: 25.6% | PFR: 14.6% | AGG: 34.1% | Hands: 264]
UTG ($25.59) [VPIP: 24.9% | PFR: 19.2% | AGG: 22.4% | Hands: 526]
HJ ($25) [VPIP: 22.9% | PFR: 19.3% | AGG: 40.4% | Flop Agg: 53.5% | Turn Agg: 32.1% | River Agg: 30% | 3Bet: 12.7% | 4Bet: 30.8% | Hands: 334]
CO ($30) [VPIP: 28.8% | PFR: 18.7% | AGG: 27.4% | Hands: 573]

Dealt to Hero: A♥ 3♥

UTG Folds, HJ Raises To $0.50, CO Folds, HERO Raises To $1.91, SB Folds, BB Folds, HJ Calls $1.41

Hero SPR on Flop: [5.54 effective]
Flop ($4.17): 4♠ 6♠ J♣
HJ Checks, HERO Bets $2.08 (Rem. Stack: $26.01), HJ Calls $2.08 (Rem. Stack: $21.01)

Turn ($8.33): 4♠ 6♠ J♣ J♦
HJ Checks, HERO Bets $5.06 (Rem. Stack: $20.95), HJ Calls $5.06 (Rem. Stack: $15.95)

River ($18.45): 4♠ 6♠ J♣ J♦ 6♥
HJ Checks, HERO Bets $20.95 (allin)

Video here

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Ken_Rae...

Yo Doodoo (love the name btw)! Really enjoyed the analysis on the above hand. Just curious as to how you're producing those aggregate stats. Is that via reports using something like pokertracker?

Thanks

The MDA I use is from my old CFP. They used Hand2Note and a database of 245 million hands.

Got it. It seems as though those alpha stats are based on general lines (folds vs x b x for example). Curious as to what your thoughts are on potentially misusing this information as surely these stats change significant from board to board. Did your CFP use more granular analysis to be more board-specific as well?

Yeah you can definitely go as granular as you want but sample size can be a problem.

So for instance in this spot we know from MDA the biggest folds vs xc-xc-x lines as 3BP OOP PFC are on Triple Broadway Rivers/River Overcard/3rd or 4th to flush.

Underfolds to the aggregate are Ace high boards.

The folding frequencies will change based on the board. It's good to know theory here because sometimes we need to give up OTR if it's a pure give up in theory on some board types (Ace high boards + paired rivers is a good example)

I don't have the exact data for every spot so I use general data if I don't have the specific data.

Solver jams, we jam.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($27.33) [VPIP: 21.4% | PFR: 17.8% | AGG: 21.2% | Hands: 1168]
SB ($8.13) [VPIP: 16.1% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 100% | Hands: 31]
BB ($25.25) [VPIP: 18.9% | PFR: 15.4% | AGG: 27.3% | Flop Agg: 30.1% | Turn Agg: 26.4% | River Agg: 26.1% | 3Bet: 10.3% | 4Bet: 14.3% | Cold Call: 8.1% | Hands: 1492]
UTG ($21.24) [VPIP: 58.2% | PFR: 8.8% | AGG: 42.7% | Hands: 173]
HJ ($25) [VPIP: 12.3% | PFR: 10.8% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 66]
HERO ($30.43) [VPIP: 28.3% | PFR: 23.5% | AGG: 37.7% | Flop Agg: 39.8% | Turn Agg: 35.3% | River Agg: 42.1% | 3Bet: 10.6% | 4Bet: 12% | Hands: 145407]

Dealt to Hero: T♣ T♥

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, HERO Raises To $0.50, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Calls $0.25

Hero SPR on Flop: [22.5 effective]
Flop ($1.10): J♥ 9♣ 3♠
BB Checks, HERO Checks

Turn ($1.10): J♥ 9♣ 3♠ 7♥
BB Bets $0.82 (Rem. Stack: $23.93), HERO Calls $0.82 (Rem. Stack: $29.11)

River ($2.74): J♥ 9♣ 3♠ 7♥ Q♦
BB Bets $1.64 (Rem. Stack: $22.29), HERO Raises To $29.11 (allin), BB Folds