Thoughts on EV calculation?
Hey there,
I'm trying to work out a multi street EV calculation for the X-X-B line
Say we're playing BVB in a SRP and we're checking our database to see how profitable a X-X-B could be
Thought about this:
[(Villain checks back flop * V checks back turn * V folds river) * (pot + our bet)] - [(Villain checks back flop * V checks back turn * V calls river) * our bet)]
The reasoning was we get to bet the turn only after V lets us get there. In comparison, we can B-B-B instead and get to bet the river much more often so I don't think looking at the river as a single street EV calc in isolation is fair.
Looks good? And ideas?
Another question: say V will x/ flop 50% and turn 40% of the time facing a 2nd check. Does he x both flop and turn a combined (50% * 40%) or is it (50% + 40%) ? Or neither? I'm too tired to make any sense.
Thanks for helping out. Cheers!
1 Reply
2nd q: it's 0.5 x 0.4 (under the assumption that hero (oop) checks 100% of the time).
1st q: i don't thinkt that xxb vs bbb makes a good comparison. the situation is completely different. i would rather compare single bets w/ each other, say xxb vs xb or simply b. your ev calculation looks wrong. when villain folds the river, hero just wins the pot and not another bet. tbh, i would just view these spots in a vacuum (aka not taking multi-street frequencies into account).
