Rule of 4 and 2 question.

if all in, 4x outs is pretty close for nutty outs, but needs to be discounted for non nut outs.

how often they bet the turn, what sizing they choose, and how likely they are to pay off with a second best hand are the pertinent factors.

aggressive players should cause you to think in terms of one street odds, because theyll blast you out on the turn and river much more often.

passive players are more likely to give free river cards, and they bet smaller on the turn. this is very beneficial to flopped draws. plus they'll let your turned or rivered pairs win for free quite often, a luxury we dont have vs blasters.

but what about vs a gto opponent? when you need to ask that question, the rule of 4 and 2 will be a stepping stone that is far behind you.

Thank you, Bob!

the 4-2-rule is used to roughtly estimate your equity.

equity refers to the share of the pot that belongs to a player if there were no more actions to be made and the rest of the cards are dealt.

it is also helpful if you want to estimate your probability of hitting a certain hand for sitation that involve implied odds.

implied odds are the amount of money that you expect to win on later streets if you hit one of your outs.

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where does the rule come from?

you hold 2 cards and there are 3-4 cards on the board. the deck has 52 - {5 or 6} = {47, 46} cards left. round it up to 50.

lets say that you have X outs, for example a flush draw has X = 13 (cards same suit) - 4 (known, 2 in your hand, 2 on board) = 9 outs.

the probability of hitting your hand on the next street is X/50 = 2*X/100, so the 2 in the 4-2-rule refers to this scaling effect.

accordingly, the probability of hitting your hand on the next 2 streets is 2*X/50 = 2*2*X/100 = 4*X/100, this is where the factor 4 comes in.

Thanks alot man, I've always played very a exploitative style and I'm just now starting to get into the real math behind things to really improve. Just played by feel up until recently.

2x is for 1 street, 4x is for 2 streets.

The rule of 4 gives an approximate equity for two cards remaining. That equity is correct whether anyone is all in or not. You need to be careful with it though, since you may not be able to fully realize that equity if there is the possibility of action on the turn. For example, the rule gives about 36% equity for a flopped flush draw. This assumes you will get to see both cards. But, just as an example, if your opponent makes a 2x pot overbet shove on a turn that you miss, you would have to fold (you risk 2x pot to win 3x so you need 40% equity to call; rule of 2 now applies, giving you 18%). Since you didn’t get to the river, you didn’t fully realize your 36% equity.

Fantastic, really appreciate all you guys!