2024 ELECTION THREAD

I haven't been following early polling. What about Arizona and Wisconsin? Or is stacking AZ and WI indicative of winning 3 of those 4, you're saying?

where my "stolen valor" donks at ???

BiG iF tRuE

There are basically 7 tossup states right now where the current polling is within 3 points: AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, and WI.

The scenario where Trump wins 3 of the 4 states mentioned does not necessarily give him the election if PA is the state he doesn't win. If Kamala takes AZ, NV, PA, and WI she wins with 271 or 272 electoral votes (depending on NE 2nd district).

The scenario where Kamala takes MI and PA but Trump takes AZ, GA, and NC gives Trump 262 votes so if he takes WI he would win the election. If Trump loses WI but wins NV he would have 268 electoral votes and then it would come down to the one electoral vote in NE 2nd District because in a tie at 269 Trump would likely win the Congress vote due to the way several states have been gerrymandered for Republicans (like WI, NC, and probably a couple of others). I have no idea where the 2nd district of NE stands right now because there have been no polls but if I had to guess I would say Kamala is ahead but it is unclear by how much that lead would be.

There are a couple of states polling in just under 5% advantages. FL for Trump and VA for Kamala. It is likely that if that switches then it would be a very large margin of victory. If Kamala wins FL then it is likely she will take GA and NC. If Trump wins VA he will likely take MI, PA and WI. The 2nd district of ME which is worth one electoral vote has only one poll so far and Kamala trails by 4% which is crazy close in a sense. So in theory if Kamala wins that district and it splits evenly everywhere else (which would be extremely unlikely given ME 2nd district is conservative) that could make a 1 vote difference.

Thanks for doing that work for me.

Isn’t this some type of violation of election law? This guy is either going to jail for the rest of his life or become president

How many fake internet stories can you fall for in one week?

yeah i was gonna say it'd be funny if she can successfully sue over that

It would be even funnier if it pissed her off enough that she made an extra effort to influence her fans to get out and vote against him.

*fingers crossed*

Wtf is taylor.

How so?

Also, in respect to the thread, if you feel interested in stating your case, do so in the chocolates thread and i might see it in a day or so but this thread isnt the place.

He accuses Kamala of using AI to fake her crowd, and he does this...

Not sure he should be pissing her off.

Because of course buying a house will always be more expensive on the first year then go renting .
But that isn’t the spirit of the dicsussion when comparing the 2 right.
And the stupidly increased of high prices since Covid fack this up a bit too .
A more true representation of time should’ve use like a 7-10 years period to really see if it was worthwhile or not to rent or buy ….

Taylor in 2020:

“The change we need most is to elect a president who recognizes that people of color deserve to feel safe and represented, that women deserve the right to choose what happens to their bodies, and that the LGBTQIA+ community deserves to be acknowledged and included. Everyone deserves a government that takes global health risks seriously and puts the lives of its people first. The only way we can begin to make things better is to choose leaders who are willing to face these issues and find ways to work through them.

“I will proudly vote for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris in this year’s presidential election. Under their leadership, I believe America has a chance to start the healing process it so desperately needs.”

https://vmagazine.com/article/the-though...

Ah ok thx

DNC gonna boost Harris to +5 and the first debate is going to be very telling, if she stil is at 5 or higher it should be a near lock for her. pols are wayy more accurate than they were for 2020

The sad part in all of this about the American people is we saw actually what was needed to be ready to put a woman at the helm of the country .

A sex offender and fraudster convict , age near 80 years old close to be senile with an insane fascism narrative while electing a judicial system that rip off woman to control their own body and yet , it’s still a close call ….

Jfc ….the amount of bs American are ready to eat is just amazing .
It should be a slam dunk .
The hate towards American woman is sad.

Hate towards women . I am pro choice but let’s be honest the party that hates women is the DNC by allowing men to compete against women and let men into little girls locker rooms

Keep in mind over 7 states have abortion on the state ballot .

Gender gap was something like +12 for Dems in 2020 and will probably be a historical high in 2024.

There are some ridiculous things in this thread, but that is up there in the top 5 for sure.

How can you possibly know this?

Has anyone here ever participated in a political poll? I get they poll a 1000 people or so but how do they choose. Do they pick the same folks?

Yes, thank you. Without weird, poorly educated men on the internet we'd have no idea that a party that is 55-60% women actually hates women and is worse than a party that wants women's health decisions to made by a women, her doctor, governor and state legislature.

We can't. But reputable pollsters do try and correct for past errors.

I do them about once a year or two.