2024 ELECTION THREAD
The next presidential race will be here soon! Please see current Bovada odds. Thoughts?
I looked back at the polls in swing states for 2016 and 2020 and compared them to the actual results. Trump performed at least a few points better than the polls in pretty much all cases, and in some spots against Hillary way way better.
My theory is this doesn't have anything to do with the polls themselves but with people's reluctance to admit they will vote for Trump. If the same dynamic is at play again, and I see no reason why it wouldn't be, then Kamila is going to lose hard.
That's not what happened in 2016 and 2020. Republican house members were under polled even more than Trump. They missed on what the turnout looked like. There were more white uneducated low info voters than expected. Maybe polls will understate Trump support or maybe they won't, but you are not analyzing past polls well.
Finding out leon was an illegal immigrant who should have been subject to deportation if not for power and wealth is probably the least shocking development ever
I thought conservatives were against illegal immigrants interfering in our elections??
That's not what happened in 2016 and 2020. Republican house members were under polled even more than Trump. They missed on what the turnout looked like. There were more white uneducated low info voters than expected. Maybe polls will understate Trump support or maybe they won't, but you are not analyzing past polls well.
I'm saying some people didn't respond to polling questions truthfully. You're basically saying the polling methodology was flawed. Which is more likely? If it was the polling methodology have they fixed it since 2020?
Can’t even imagine how furious they’d be if it turned out Soros was a cat and dog eating illegal
I'm saying some people didn't respond to polling questions truthfully. You're basically saying the polling methodology was flawed. Which is more likely? If it was the polling methodology have they fixed it since 2020?
Announcing you’re a trump supporter in 2016 was definitely an underreported thing that was viewed as a shameful character defect or whatever so less people admitted to
It’s definitely normalized in 2024 to the point where I genuinely wonder if it’s overreported
I'm saying some people didn't respond to polling questions truthfully. You're basically saying the polling methodology was flawed. Which is more likely? If it was the polling methodology have they fixed it since 2020?
It's far more likely that uneducated, low info voters are heavily tilted R and being under polled than people are bothering to lie to pollsters. This would also explain why midterm polling in congressional races has been very accurate but congressional polling in presidential elections has been some of the worst. Low info low education voters are not voting in midterms.
Honestly in my lifetime I can’t come up with a bigger ‘cutting off your nose to spite your face’ issue than Gaza being a referendum against Harris. Do I think things improve with Harris as president instead of Biden? Probably not. America isn’t going to break their allegiance with Israel anytime soon so it’s irrational to expect anything beyond complicitness by way of harsh words. I can say with absolute certainly though not only will Trump (who the israeli embassy is named after) be complicit he will happily let Israel extend and do whatever he can to make life miserable for brown people
Anyway, speaking of Leon are we just gonna choose to handwave his regular communication with Putin despite holding American government contracts?
Honestly in my lifetime I can’t come up with a bigger ‘cutting off your nose to spite your face’ issue than Gaza being a referendum against Harris. Do I think things improve with Harris as president instead of Biden? Probably not. America isn’t going to break their allegiance with Israel anytime soon so it’s irrational to expect anything beyond complicitness by way of harsh words. I can say with absolute certainly though not only will Trump (who the israeli embassy is named after) be complicit h
I can, republican extremists nominated insane people in some key primaries in purple areas losing key governorships, senate seats, and ultimately the senate itself.
And trump suicided the republican senate majority in 2020 as well
Honestly in my lifetime I can’t come up with a bigger ‘cutting off your nose to spite your face’ issue than Gaza being a referendum against Harris. Do I think things improve with Harris as president instead of Biden? Probably not. America isn’t going to break their allegiance with Israel anytime soon so it’s irrational to expect anything beyond complicitness by way of harsh words. I can say with absolute certainly though not only will Trump (who the israeli embassy
the duality of man I guess
oh ftr, I disagree with her final assessment. US isnt ignoring this. they are actively directing it with Kamala's full support.
thats for the other thread lozen.
in this thread, I am really curious how Trump would be at all worse than this.
Trump didnt do a plausible genocide and war of extermination. and regardless, hardly any anti-genociders are advocating to vote for Trump lol.
You’re posting in a 2024 election thread neph
I'd like to say it was a good fight Kamala... But it wasn't.
okay, bye bye now.
thats for the other thread lozen.
in this thread, I am really curious how Trump would be at all worse than this.
There just isn't enough information to know whether trump would be better or not. If he appoints a bunch of Nazi mother****ers, it could conceivably cut off a lot of arsenal or help prevent Israel from escalating further, who knows.
But more likely, he'd prolly turn his head and let Bibi has he pleased and you'd, with almost certainty, have a much faster and higher death toll. There are a lot of Gazans still alive.
in b4 gaza is annexed by the usa and renamed trumpland
really, harris brags about giving transgender surgeries to inmates? or does she have a principle that medical treatments should be given to inmates that every single reasonable person has and this happens to include medically relevant treatment like transgender surgeries that are recommended by doctors?
we can disagree epistemically on what counts as a medically relevant treatment but let’s not pretend like anyone is bragging about how many sex reassignment surgeries inmates are getting.
How exactly could Trump be worse on Gaza? Is he going to dig up all the dead bodies and kill them again.
thats for the other thread lozen.
in this thread, I am really curious how Trump would be at all worse than this.
There will be no difference between the two administrations other than one says its doing something to help the Palestine's which it is not and the other will support Israel 100%
Though many folks in Michigan know Kamala is full of it and will punish her for it
