2024 ELECTION THREAD
The next presidential race will be here soon! Please see current Bovada odds. Thoughts?
And as I’ve said numerous times now, I’m not talking about randos on poker forums but rather politicians and pundits. And being accurate doesn’t make it politically beneficial in the context I’m talking about. They can be technically right to some degree and nonetheless hurting their cause if the commentary focuses on how stupid, racist, misogynistic, etc the people are who choose not to vote Democrat.
So you’re arguing against a straw man. Politicians and pundits on the left bend over backwards to “understand” Trump supporters. When a big portion really are just stupid and or bigoted. I’m completely fine with Biden, Harris or Obama or courting trump supporters rather than speaking bluntly and honestly to them. But they are already doing what you’re advocating.
Here's why I hope Kamala wins, although I don't think it matters much as far as my day-to-day goes. If Trump wins, this playbook of acting the way he does carries on. If Trump loses, hopefully the GOP burns itself down and adults build it back up? Hopefully?
If that happens, I really do think it’s possible the new Republican Party is somehow worse in ways we can’t understand yet in the same way the necessary burning down of neo conservatism snd Reaganism somehow didn’t make anything better.
Instead of banning if someone posts outside of their containment, mods can always just move the posts to the containment thread.
And as I’ve said numerous times now, I’m not talking about randos on poker forums but rather politicians and pundits. And being accurate doesn’t make it politically beneficial in the context I’m talking about. They can be technically right to some degree and nonetheless hurting their cause if the commentary focuses on how stupid, racist, misogynistic, etc the people are who choose not to vote Democrat.
So you’re arguing against a straw man. Politicians and pundits on the left bend over backwards to “understand” Trump supporters. When a big portion really are just stupid and or bigoted. I’m completely fine with Biden, Harris or Obama or courting trump supporters rather than speaking bluntly and honestly to them. But they are already doing what you’re advocating.
It's not entirely a strawman
The way people behave on social media gets conflated with the views of the people/parties they support. That creates a very fertile ground for Bidens mistake, Clintons 'deplorable' slip etc etc
I mean if you want them to speak slower and use smaller words I guess that’s a valid criticism. But Trump supporters tend to be sensitive about their perceived lack of intelligence as well. So no path that won’t offend someone.
Funny how? Funny as in you're too stupid to understand what I said? That's not particularly funny for me, and I respectfully suggest it should be even less funny for you.
I understand very well that you said a wrong thing in a typically hostile manner and then when confronted retreated to your typical childish insults.
GENOCIDE!!!!!!
To state the obvious, there is no way the true odds shifted that much in 48 hours. I suspect that 57% is much closer to the true odds than 67%, but that's mostly a gut feeling.
not necessarily true
in a market like this, a lot of people are incentivized to hedge their trump positions, if you got in on trump earlier in the year you could now take on kamala positions and guarantee a profit
same reason why uconn, despite being the much better team in the march madness final, had the market go strongly against them and money poured in on purdue
it wasn't that people thought purdue was going to win, it's that they had large uconn futures and took on purdue simply as a hedge so regardless of the outcome they made money
i personally am maxed out on trump positions on predictit and it's a far better move for me to buy kamala at other markets rather than sell my trump positions, i haven't done so yet, but it's something i've strongly considered - but with current prices i'll probably just hold my trump stuff
edit: Does anyone know why youtube embed does not let you link to a time here? At least if I try to embed the link above it does not. I thought it used to work.
way to time stamp embedded vids is with this
?start=*&
where * = the time, so here it's 8427 seconds so it'd be
?start=8427&
bit we'd use normally which is BKd9LA6PW_k
we'd ad that so it'd be:
BKd9LA6PW_k?start=8427&
ie
really sucks the embed time stamp is a slightly different format than the url time stamp format, no clue if it's youtube or us which is the problem
.
Did Elon just come out and tweet that the Democratic Party is the party of criminals, and criminals vote overwhelmingly democrats, all over some stupid ass euthanizing squirrels political noise BS?
Biden talking about smacking Trump in the ass. Why on earth are the dems letting this senile dude speak???
kidding, it was actually funny
So you’re arguing against a straw man. Politicians and pundits on the left bend over backwards to “understand” Trump supporters. When a big portion really are just stupid and or bigoted. I’m completely fine with Biden, Harris or Obama or courting trump supporters rather than speaking bluntly and honestly to them. But they are already doing what you’re advocating.
I mean people who’ve voted Dem in the past or at least aren’t MAGA Trump voters. People that have reasons that aren’t completely batshit or conspiracy related, even if they’re possibly miscalculating. Off the top of my head, the response to some bad polling regarding Black men, young white men, and people sympathetic to Palestinians has been shaming.
I think it’s pretty crazy to expect 10s of millions of people online to behave a certain way. Like when black supporters picked Biden or Clinton over Ssnders we had people here saying it’s because they are poorly educated. That’s stupid but it’s also dumb to say it was a big reason in why sanders lost. But just the fact that you’re talking about this and not actual candidate ms just shows you’re holding democrats to a ludicrous Standard you don’t hold other groups to.
If I wanted to put some money on Harris to win a toss-up state and for Trump to win a toss up state which states should I pick for each?
Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day. Here's how
Kamala Harris now leads Donald Trump in Iowa — a startling reversal for Democrats and Republicans who have all but written off the state’s presidential contest as a certain Trump victory.
A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows Vice President Harris leading former President Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters just days before a high-stakes election that appears deadlocked in key battleground states.
The results follow a September Iowa Poll that showed Trump with a 4-point lead over Harris and a June Iowa Poll showing him with an 18-point lead over Democratic President Joe Biden, who was the presumed Democratic nominee at the time.
“It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming,” said pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co. “She has clearly leaped into a leading position.”
From a betting standpoint it seems simple enough
If you think kamala is gonna win load up on her on bovada or wherever else
If you think trump is gonna win wait til market opening Monday and if DJT opens down load up on that
not necessarily true
in a market like this, a lot of people are incentivized to hedge their trump positions, if you got in on trump earlier in the year you could now take on kamala positions and guarantee a profit
same reason why uconn, despite being the much better team in the march madness final, had the market go strongly against them and money poured in on purdue
it wasn't that people thought purdue was going to win, it's that they had large uconn futures and took on purdue simply as a hedge so
Apparently you don't know what true odds are.
please explain what true odds are in an election
