2024 ELECTION THREAD
The next presidential race will be here soon! Please see current Bovada odds. Thoughts?
My arguments, which have largely gone unchallenged, are based on having more data than you, not less.
I’m pretty confident Kamala will win the swing states for a variety of reasons. The important point in some of those outlier polls in the midwest ( kamala up 3 in iowa, Trump + 5 in Kansas, Trump + 3 in Ohioetc etc is they all tell a similar story of Trump losing the women vote by large margins. Selzer is a very highly regarded pollster and amomgst women voters Kamala is up 20 points. in iowa where most of them are white midwesterners.
With outliers, ignoring them is often a mistake, but so is post selecting ones to build a narrative around. If the race is close, you expect individuals polls pointing to a comfortable Harris win (Seltzer showing Harris leading in IA) and a comfortable Trump win (Susquehanna showing Trump up 6 in NV). Seems like that's what we have.
I don't think we're going to get any useful data on election day, or even day+1, that tells us with any reasonable assurance who is actually going to win, so while I'll of course be watching the results out of sheer curiosity I don't think doing so will be very fruitful for gleaning the outcome. The race is just too close to call for any of the swing states until a very large sample from each of their districts has come in.
I would bet it won't be called, but we'll pretty much know if you stay up until 2, like Biden 2020.
And FWIW polls being this close doesn't actually mean the election has to be that close. If polls are off by a couple points to either side, one candidate could become a massive favorite after the first states start reporting. Like if Trump is significantly under or over performing 2020 numbers in rural New York you can be pretty sure where things will end up.
I don't think we're going to get any useful data on election day, or even day+1, that tells us with any reasonable assurance who is actually going to win, so while I'll of course be watching the results out of sheer curiosity I don't think doing so will be very fruitful for gleaning the outcome. The race is just too close to call for any of the swing states until a very large sample from each of their districts has come in.
Not sure that I agree. You probably won't know who won by 1 am on the east coast, but I'm guessing you will be at least 85% certain by that time.
Trump's behavior over the last month has really underscored his commitment to undermining confidence in U.S. election results. It's easy to see the whole playbook:
Before election day:
1) Repeatedly say that you are way ahead, no matter what you really think.
2) Point repeatedly to any poll or betting market that supports your claim that you are way ahead, regardless of how much or how little predictive value the poll or market has. (As an aside, I would be really curious to have more information about the multi-accounter who pushed the odds so significantly on Polymarket a few weeks ago.)
3) Make baseless allegations of ongoing fraud, especially in key states. Claim that fraud already has been discovered and proven, no matter what the actual facts are.
4) Lay the groundwork for a pressure campaign against state election officials in key states.
On election day, before the polls close:
5) Claim that dead people, non-citizens, etc. are voting in almost every key jurisdiction. Every six minutes, claim that a plan by Democrats to steal the election is in process.
After the polls close on election day (unless you appear to have won the election handily):
6) Claim victory well before the election has been called.
7) Immediately start leaning on state election officials in key states.
If the election is called for you:
8) Claim that Democratic cheating obscures the fact that you actually won in a landslide.
If the election is called for Harris:
9) Claim that the election has been stolen and create as much outrage and chaos as you can. Point to steps 1-3 and 5 as evidence that the election is being stolen.
10) Start trying to manipulate the state elector process.
11) File a bunch of baseless litigation.
This is what Trump supporters refer to as the legitimate use of all the tools in the toolbox.
None of that is incorrect but the fact that trump somehow won’t accept the election even if he wins is the most maddening bullshit ever
Oh I’m fully aware of that
It’s still pathological insanity. People have conveniently forgotten how every 2016 primary that was won by cruz was rigged against him cuz the republicans cheat
Oh I’m fully aware of that
It’s still pathological insanity. People have conveniently forgotten how every 2016 primary that was won by cruz was rigged against him cuz the republicans cheat
You know your right those damn GOP gerry mandering . I am so glad the democrats would never do that Oh wait
Trump's behavior over the last month has really underscored his commitment to undermining confidence in U.S. election results. It's easy to see the whole playbook:
Before election day:
1) Repeatedly say that you are way ahead, no matter what you really think.
2) Point repeatedly to any poll or betting market that supports your claim that you are way ahead, regardless of how much or how little predictive value the poll or market has. (As an aside, I would be really curious to have more informati
I think what’s important is to discuss what comes next
The scariest thing about this is the guy at the head of the lawsuits to overturn votes is now the speaker of the house, and if the republicans keep the house but Harris wins the election he’ll be the speaker on 1/6
The only reason 1/6 didn’t work last time is cuz pence didn’t play along and pelosi was speaker. There is no part of me that believes Johnson won’t play along with the bullshit required to undo a Harris win
Oh I’m fully aware of that
It’s still pathological insanity. People have conveniently forgotten how every 2016 primary that was won by cruz was rigged against him cuz the republicans cheat
He did it in '12 as well as a 'true outsider' sitting right next to Romney on election night and later raging about it being rigged on twitter all night 😀
When one side claims the other is an illegitimate participant in the democratic process, it shouldn't surprise anyone the same gets used against them
I think what’s important is to discuss what comes next
The scariest thing about this is the guy at the head of the lawsuits to overturn votes is now the speaker of the house, and if the republicans keep the house but Harris wins the election he’ll be the speaker on 1/6
The only reason 1/6 didn’t work last time is cuz pence didn’t play along and pelosi was speaker. There is no part of me that believes Johnson won’t play along with the bullshit required to undo a Harris win
The Electoral Count Reform Act was passed in 2022. It would be much, much harder for Johnson to do what Trump wanted Pence to do.
I think it's a little silly to compare 08 era birtherism which was fringe to the mainstream election denialism of the Trump era.
No i am referring to calling the opponent Hitler, trying to keep him off the ballot and so on. That's explicitly saying he is not a legitimate participant in the democratic process, and by extension every single person who intends to vote for him isn't either.
That type of claim is common enough from the left, that there is absolutely no kind of moral justification necessary to not do absolutely anything possible on the other side to try to win.
You move from "a sport game with rules and a referee" to "a gang war where winning at any cost is all that matters". And *it was democrats that started that*.
No i am referring to calling the opponent Hitler, trying to keep him off the ballot and so on. That's explicitly saying he is not a legitimate participant in the democratic process, and by extension every single person who intends to vote for him isn't either.
That type of claim is common enough from the left, that there is absolutely no kind of moral justification necessary to not do absolutely anything possible on the other side to try to win.
You move from "a sport game with rules and a referee
Yeah, eda. Please don't assume that Luciom was referring to the wild birtherism lie that Trump tried to push years before he was a presidential candidate.
No i am referring to calling the opponent Hitler, trying to keep him off the ballot and so on. That's explicitly saying he is not a legitimate participant in the democratic process, and by extension every single person who intends to vote for him isn't either.
That type of claim is common enough from the left, that there is absolutely no kind of moral justification necessary to not do absolutely anything possible on the other side to try to win.
You move from "a sport game with rules and a referee
lol oh go the **** away
Here's a great example of what I mean by these guys putting their thumb on the scales to protect their reputations. Here's Nate Silver talking about the infamous Iowa poll :
It is incredibly gutsy to release this poll. It won't put Harris ahead in our forecast because there was also another Iowa poll out today that was good for Trump. But wouldn't want to play poker against Ann Selzer.
Why do you suppose he thinks it's "gutsy" to release a poll they did? Why do you suppose that's even something that a pollster would even consider?
They are practically telling you guys and you won't listen.
Here's a great example of what I mean by these guys putting their thumb on the scales to protect their reputations. Here's Nate Silver talking about the infamous Iowa poll :
Why do you suppose he thinks it's "gutsy" to release a poll they did? Why do you suppose that's even something that a pollster would even consider?
They are practically telling you guys and you won't listen.
Well it won't take much to determine objectively who was bull shitting and who was correct. We will know about Iowa in a few days.
Nice try. I just checked and Trump didn't hop on the birtherism train until 2011. He was a registered Republican by then and had figured out by that time that people who liked birtherism also liked him.
In any case, Trump has never really been a Democrat or a Republican. He cares only about himself. He certainly doesn't care what happens to the Republican party after he is gone.
Just when it appeared that public interest was fading, celebrity developer Donald Trump has revived the theory that President Barack Obama was born overseas and helped expose the depth to which the notion has taken root—a New York Times poll Thursday found that a plurality of Republicans believe it.
If you haven’t been trolling the fever swamps of online conspiracy sites or opening those emails from Uncle Larry, you may well wonder: Where did this idea come from? Who started it? And is there a grain of truth there?
The answer lies in Democratic, not Republican politics, and in the bitter, exhausting spring of 2008. At the time, the Democratic presidential primary was slipping away from Hillary Clinton and some of her most passionate supporters grasped for something, anything that would deal a final reversal to Barack Obama. (See: Bachmann: Birther issue settled)
