What is the probabililty of an election coming down to a single vote?

The election in 2000 was decided by like 300 votes.

Sorry

“ The 2000 United States presidential election recount in Florida was a period of vote recounting in Florida that occurred during the weeks after Election Day in the 2000 United States presidential election between George W. Bush and Al Gore. The Florida vote was ultimately settled in Bush's favor by a margin of 537 votes when the U.S. Supreme Court, in Bush v. Gore, stopped a recount that had been initiated upon a ruling by the Florida Supreme Court. Bush's win in Florida gave him a majority of votes in the Electoral College and victory in the presidential election.[1]”

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_United_States_presidential_election_recount_in_Florida

en

2000 United States presidential election recount in Florida - Wikipedia

It does not matter if you as an individual choose not to vote. What matters is when too many individuals make the same choice. Elections are decided by small margins all the time. Would the result be different if more people voted? Could be. As a member of society, voting is your small part in working towards making it function properly.

A vote is a citizen saying they have faith in a politician

Should citizens vote for politicians which they don’t have faith in?

As an aside- ChatGPT/LLMs don't think. They use training data to produce output. So they can't perform thought experiments, because they're incapable of thinking. If it's not in the training data, it can't do it. LLMs are "bad" at math because they don't know how to do math. They know that 2 + 2 = 4 because it's in their training data, not because they know how to add.

If all outcomes were equally likely, yes. The popular vote distribution is more like a normal distribution, though. A simplified version of this would be:

Let's say all outcomes between 55% Harris/45% Trump and 45% Harris/55% Trump are equally likely, and all other outcomes are impossible. The popular vote total in 2020 was ~ 154 million- let's use 150 million as the total number of voters. So we count all the equally likely possibilities between [67.5 million, 82.5 million] and [82.5 million, 67.5 million] which is 15 million. 1 in 15 million.

You can make this more complicated/realistic by modelling it as a normal distribution.

So this IS a question ChatGPT can answer for you- or at least it can regurgitate the words that humans have written on the topic. LMCGPTFY...

ChatGPT

Voting is a powerful way to contribute to the democratic process and make your voice heard. Here are a few reasons why voting is important, even if it feels like your individual vote might not matter:

• 1. Collective Impact: While one vote might seem insignificant, the collective impact of many individuals voting can lead to substantial changes. Every vote contributes to the overall result.
  
  
• 2. Representation: Voting ensures that your interests and needs are represented in government. Elected officials make decisions that affect various aspects of your life, including education, healthcare, and infrastructure.
  
  
• 3. Accountability: Voting holds elected officials accountable. If politicians know that people are engaged and willing to vote them out, they are more likely to act in the best interests of their constituents.
  
  
• 4. Civic Duty: Voting is a fundamental part of democratic citizenship. It’s an opportunity to participate in shaping the future of your community, state, and country.
  
  
• 5. Policy Influence: Even if your preferred candidate doesn't win, a higher turnout can influence the policy priorities of the winning candidates, as they recognize the issues that matter to the electorate.
  
  
• 6. Historical Significance: Many people have fought for the right to vote. Exercising your right honors their efforts and continues the legacy of democratic participation.
  
  
• 7. Local Elections: Local elections often have a more direct impact on your daily life and can be decided by a small number of votes. Your participation is even more crucial in these elections.
  

Even if the chances of your single vote deciding an election are small, your vote is part of a larger movement that can drive meaningful change.

If there was a "none of the above" line and the winner needed >50% to win, otherwise there is a new election, then no, they should not. But the way elections currently work is that one of the names on the ballot will win no matter how many votes they get. Then the choice is "who, among these candidates, do I think will be the best?".

Okay, thanks. I will ponder such implication.

BTW, does this map to owning an electric car? If so, you should consider buying a Tesla.

Can't believe I'm first but obvs..

There have been a number of elections in the US that ended in ties or one vote victories.

https://www.npr.org/2018/11/03/663709392/why-every-vote-matters-the-elections-decided-by-a-single-vote-or-a-little-more

NPR

Why Every Vote Matters — The Elections Decided By A Single Vote (Or A Little More)

In the us presidential election the odds are about 1 in 12 million.

This thread is relevant to my interests.

Please proceed.

there is a really stupid movie with Kevin Costner about this. Probably d2 favorite movie next to human centipede and spiderman 2

And Deep Throat 27. I would recommend it, but it's pretty tough to follow along with the plot if you haven't seen the first 26.

The odds of your individual vote affecting the election outcome obviously depend on where you live. While the odds obviously are incredibly small no matter where you live, they are exponentially higher if you live in Pennsylvania than they are if you live in Oklahoma.

An election just happened in BC Canada were the difference between a majority and a minority government (ie having to work with other parties or not) came down to less than 20 votes.

This came up when I was in school. I guess people wrote papers on it... I don't remember well.

But the conclusion was that the main reason to vote is consumption value. It's fulfilling to make use of your rights, or whatever floats your boat.

I enjoy in person voting on election day. Seeing all the volunteers. Even in recent years, it's been a warm vibe. We don't have 4 hour lines or anything.

I understand the draw backs, but I REALLY enjoy caucuses. It's too bad more people don't get to do it. You really feel like your in a participatory democracy. At a local scool, listening to your neighbors make a case for their candidate. You meet some cool people and some insane people.

If you dislike it, I think you'd make more impact by just working for an extra hour and donating the money.

Yes and you can math it all out with the EC value and population, and how swingy the state is etc.

But as I tell people all the time those downballot choices are really important too and every year many races like that around the country here and there can come down to pretty small margins. County executives, council presidents, law enforcement aren't as interesting to look into but all can have an outsized influence on things you care about.

That's vastly more important now when dealing with so many people intent on throwing wrenches into all levels of local government, removing checks and balances.

We will never get an election as close to 2000 again. or at least in a very very long time

is this a real thread? The american empire would have to go for 100 trillion years for this to happen once on average

In the 2017 Northumberland County Council Election in England, it was closer:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Northumberland_County_Council_election

en

2017 Northumberland County Council election - Wikipedia

With 67 seats, 34 were needed for a majority. After 66 seats were counted the Conservatives had 33, Others 33. The final seat to declare was a tie, determined by drawing straws.

The Guardian has the video: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/201...

Although that's an election with 100 thousand people voting, not 100 million.