Trump 2nd term prediction thread
So, looks like Trump not only smashed the electoral college, but is looking on track to win the popular vote, which seems to be an unexpected turn of events, but a clear sign of the current temperature in the country and perhaps the wider world.
Would be interested to hear views on how his 2nd term will pan out from both sides of the aisle - major happenings, what he's going to get done, what he's not going to get done, the impact of his election on the current conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, whether his popularity will remain the same, wane, or increase, etc.
A bit of an anemic OP, I know, just interested to hear people's thoughts now that the election uncertainty is over.
No there wasn't PLENTY of such people who died of COVID, no. In several European countries there was not a single excess death under 40 for example.
And mortality even in the USA went back to... 2007 rates, IE rates that are fully compatible with absolutely normal life with absolutely nothing to be worried about.
The way the thing for described is as if it was actually a problem, like the worst year in since WW2 by a large margin, which definitely wasn't, not even close.
Worst global pandemic in 1
uh you realize a lot of the decrease in deaths can be attributed to the mitigation protocols, right?
like if you have lockdowns or suggested stay at home/self-quarantining orders this will reduce traffic fatalities.
and given this view of covid it would be pretty stupid to argue that lockdowns or mask mandates or vaccines killed a bunch of people as many on the right argue.
I don’t see why you are attributing things to “my side” that I haven’t argued. that’s classic strawmaning. if you want to take up all the positions of “your side” I guess you believe it was a chemical weapon to facilitate a transfer of billions to the gate foundation and start a new world order or some stupid crap. and I have to be responsible for the quadruple maskers and permanent lockdown people I guess? seems like a pretty dumb way of having a conversation but whatever.
Covid obviously had a reach that fentanyl doesn't, though that's not to downplay the danger of fentanyl.
Communicable diseases are just of a different category. Like if you are a plane back to NY from London and someone who traveled to all sorts of remote areas dies mid flight from some unknown respiratory disease they will quarantine you and forcibly if necessary. Every country in the world would do it. It's just common sense.
That's why it's a bad comparison to make.
I think comparing society wide restrictions for months/years that never happened in the history of the world before with the quarantine of a plane in exceptional circumstances is the actual bad comparison to make.
Just imagine the plane is like, the whole world and it starts to make perfect sense.
I think comparing society wide restrictions for months/years that never happened in the history of the world before with the quarantine of a plane in exceptional circumstances is the actual bad comparison to make.
You think during the black plague there were no society wide restrictions?
I think that we got lucky that the particular mutations we rolled were relatively benign. And then hindsight bias allows you to say people knew all along things they didn’t know.
If I say “I’m going to flop a flush this hand” and then I flop a flush, that doesn’t mean I had some kind of special knowledge that others don’t have, it just means I made a guess that happened to be right.
You think during the black plague there were no society wide restrictions?
I think that we got lucky that the particular mutations we rolled were relatively benign. And then hindsight bias allows you to say people knew all along things they didn’t know.
If I say “I’m going to flop a flush this hand” and then I flop a flush, that doesn’t mean I had some kind of special knowledge that others don’t have, it just means I made a guess that happened to be right.
Not only I think, I know that with the black plague there we're't restrictions like with COVID yes.
The common sense practice which held for basically forever till your people decided to change what at the point was a millenarian world-wide practice, just because China did it, a practice that the WHO had never sponsored as feasible ever for any disease up to that point (countrywide lockdowns) was what is called "cordon sanitarie". You cut off areas where the disease is rampant from the rest but within the disease ravaged area you allow people to live.
But the cordon sanitarie isnt applicable to an airborne virus which is already seeded everywhere and it has to be strict. Strict as in no exceptions in leaving the area.
Which is hard to enforce and hard to construe under liberal constitutions so you should just give up.
No it doesnt because when it's the whole world you aren't protecting anyone for exposure anyway in the medium-long term.
Which is why everyone ended up being exposed to COVID anyway, which meant all previous efforts were definitionally futile.
Unlike the plane, which you can quarantine guaranteeing no novel pathogen EVER spread elsewhere. You pay a (very small, concentrated)price to permanently avoid a future problem, not a huge widespread insane cos just to delay the inevitable.
No it doesnt because when it's the whole world you aren't protecting anyone for exposure anyway in the medium-long term.
Which is why everyone ended up being exposed to COVID anyway, which meant all previous efforts were definitionally futile.
Unlike the plane, which you can quarantine guaranteeing no novel pathogen EVER spread elsewhere. You pay a (very small, concentrated)price to permanently avoid a future problem, not a huge widespread insane cos just to delay the inevitable.
I mean, it wasn't supposed to be a perfect analogy. The world is pretty big compared to a plane ldo.
No it doesnt because when it's the whole world you aren't protecting anyone for exposure anyway in the medium-long term.
Which is why everyone ended up being exposed to COVID anyway, which meant all previous efforts were definitionally futile.
Unlike the plane, which you can quarantine guaranteeing no novel pathogen EVER spread elsewhere. You pay a (very small, concentrated)price to permanently avoid a future problem, not a huge widespread insane cos just to delay the inevitable.
That might be truish if we didn't have science. Lots of value in getting covid after the vaccine instaed of before.
The reason it still isn't true is that much of the effort was to reduce winter peaks
That might be truish if we didn't have science. Lots of value in getting covid after the vaccine instaed of before.
The reason it still isn't true is that much of the effort was to reduce winter peaks
Which is why the cumulative excess deaths 2020-23 in Japan were the same as in Australia even if Japan didn't even close down strip clubs ever?
Or why germany and france have basically identical cumulative excess deaths 20-23 even if Germany did 1/50 of what France did in 2020?
One of the more pervasive fallacies about lockdowns is that they were the main thing responsible for the reduction in people mixing
Much of the possible reduction was happening anyway (including in Japan). You may recall my 'coming like a ghost town' post before the lockdown.
One of the more pervasive fallacies about lockdowns is that they were the main thing responsible for the reduction in people mixing
Much of the possible reduction was happening anyway (including in Japan). You may recall my 'coming like a ghost town' post before the lockdown.
Maybe, which is still one of the reasons why you don't need to mandate anything to the few people who wouldn't self-isolate, let them live as they want.
Not only I think, I know that with the black plague there we're't restrictions like with COVID yes.
The common sense practice which held for basically forever till your people decided to change what at the point was a millenarian world-wide practice, just because China did it, a practice that the WHO had never sponsored as feasible ever for any disease up to that point (countrywide lockdowns) was what is called "cordon sanitarie". You cut off areas where the disease is rampant from the rest but w
I mean even if I grant you all this it doesn’t really address the original point that got us into this entire tiff which was me responding to someone about “people afraid of a cold”.
Is this just a motte and bailey tactic?
Maybe, which is still one of the reasons why you don't need to mandate anything to the few people who wouldn't self-isolate, let them live as they want.
they're should imo be a sensible discussion about lockdowns. I was critcial of the BBC shutting down professor Gupta who was a genuine expert.
Legislation helps when people want to isolate but are effectively forced to work etc. It provided a framework for all the other legislation to support people and businesses.
Obvisouly there are downsides to lockdown which need to be cosndiered but so much that is blamed on the lockdown is balony - much of it and quite possibly far worse were happening anyway.
Rogan was a classic example--complaining about lockdowns meanwhile in his own life he built one of the most elaborate&extreme forcefields of covid security imaginable. Something no regular person could even begin to match.
I mean even if I grant you all this it doesn’t really address the original point that got us into this entire tiff which was me responding to someone about “people afraid of a cold”.
Is this just a motte and bailey tactic?
It was a cold in terms of risk for a portion of the population, the flu for another, pneunonia for yet another and almost a death sentence for a super thin slice of the population.
We never had a disease with that distribution of lethality risk because usually you at least have high risk among the very young (U shaped).
I understand illiterate and innumerate people had a hard time to comprehend that automatically would have made any model predicated on U shaped or non-age-dependant risk worthless to discuss tradeoffs, but it was clear very early that was the case.
Like with novel flu strains, if they hit hard enough, school closures where on the map of possible interventions. BUT THAT'S BECAUSE THE FLU CAN BE SERIOUS FOR KIDS! not a single model in the history of public health ever proposed school closures "to save granma" jfc
Rogan was a classic example--complaining about lockdowns meanwhile in his own life he built one of the most elaborate&extreme forcefields of covid security imaginable. Something no regular person could even begin to match.
I was out-and-about in the world a bunch during covid and I was still also ok without any sort of forcefields, fwiw.
My prediction: trump will cause inflation to spike, definitely by 1 year from now, and probably much sooner.
For the illiterate, I'll put it in caps for you:
THIS IS JUST MY PREDICTION AND I MIGHT BE WRONG
Don't worry, you can still say whatever you want about me since I have you blocked and don't care what you think.
If trump is actually able to implement mass tariffs and deportations when unemployment is at 3%) I think there’s no doubt inflation will be high. But he was pretty incompetent at implement major things last time. Family separations was such a good policy for them last time because being incompetent made it more effective.
My prediction: trump will cause inflation to spike, definitely by 1 year from now, and probably much sooner.
For the illiterate, I'll put it in caps for you:
THIS IS JUST MY PREDICTION AND I MIGHT BE WRONG
Don't worry, you can still say whatever you want about me since I have you blocked and don't care what you think.
Can you define spike quantitatively in your prediction? and i suppose you are talking american CPI?
IF it doesn't happen, will you also change your take on Trump being bad for america?
If trump is actually able to implement mass tariffs and deportations when unemployment is at 3%) I think there’s no doubt inflation will be high. But he was pretty incompetent at implement major things last time.
This is the thing that gives me the most hope: his utter incompetence.
But companies have already started doing things that will raise prices down the road just in case he does get it implemented.
If trump is actually able to implement mass tariffs and deportations when unemployment is at 3%) I think there’s no doubt inflation will be high. But he was pretty incompetent at implement major things last time.
If the Ukraine war ends, even with huge benefits for Putin (he keeps the land and so on), that's deflationary.
If Trump removes regulations for production of food, extraction of fossil fuels and so on, that's deflationary.
If republicans gut medicaid that's deflationary.
And China and the EU are in a bad spot macroeconomically, that's deflationary for the world, not caused by Trump but he will benefit from it.
Btw deportation aren't obviously inflationary, the pressure on housing easing is very deflationary
Tariffs are the only obviously inflationary part of his program but it isn't obvious all the rest combined will matter less than the tariffs.
Rogan was a classic example--complaining about lockdowns meanwhile in his own life he built one of the most elaborate&extreme forcefields of covid security imaginable. Something no regular person could even begin to match.
Yup. And got monoclonal antibodies when regular people wouldn’t be able to.
