Trump Economy and Poker
About six years ago I put up a post pointing out that the good Trump economy was probably very good for the poker games since it would create more excess income for many people which we would see in the poker games. Unfortunately, Covid came and, of course, I got attacked by some people for saying something positive about Trump.
Anyway, I expect something similar to happen again. That is, I expect the economy to improve, more people to take part in it, and the poker games to get better. This should take, in my opinion, about 18 months.
Again, not because of the tax cut. Federal tax revenue tends to increase in non recessionary environments but
Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
it's hard and implausible to claim that the laffer curve for federal taxation peaks at 15% of GDP (from all sources) so it's unreasonable to claim the tax cuts paid for themselves.
but it's disingenuous to use some expressions like "led to bigger deficit" like your link while you previously used the correct phrasing which is "led to higher deficit than the counterfactual"
I posted the link. They explain exactly what that sentence means in context....something that OP can never do with his statements because they are obviously not true.
The truth is, we simply don't know what is going to happen in the future and economists cant predict the outcome of so many moving parts that are intertwined with one another. It's a global economy and Trump is still just one man.
Right. We don’t really even know if Trump will be able to implement mass tariffs and deportations so it’s hard to say how much that will slow growth rates. What we should be able to discuss is why Trumps policies didn’t lead to increased growth rates in his first term pre covid but we can’t even do that because OP thinks they were “terrific” without even bothering to look them up.
Right. We don’t really even know if Trump will be able to implement mass tariffs and deportations so it’s hard to say how much that will slow growth rates. What we should be able to discuss is why Trumps policies didn’t lead to increased growth rates in his first term pre covid but we can’t even do that because OP thinks they were “terrific” without even bothering to look them up.
because congress makes most of policy not the president and even when trump had a trifecta in his first term he had republican opponents in the Senate so basically he wasn't allowed to pass any non-standard republican policy in 4 years (in 2 he didn't have congress).
he did very little which is what is usually good for society no matter who has the power. the less a president does the better society is usually (unless it's removing previous forms of state violence in which case that's almost always good, like when trump modestly reduced regulation by executive fiat).
same as Obama didn't do much because congress opposed him most of his years as president.
he had 2 years of Congress on his side and he passed Obamacare then and that's about it (and the law got later eviscerated by courts in many aspects because it was blatantly unconstitutional in many parts).
in the vast majority of situations the absolute best government can do is to stay out of the ****ing way
Doesn’t matter .
That is not what trump says…
And what people believe what trump saying isn’t backed up by data .
As for the ideology stance if yours , we know thx .
he had 2 years of Congress on his side and he passed Obamacare then and that's about it (and the law got later eviscerated by courts in many aspects because it was blatantly unconstitutional in many parts).
Obamacare sigh ups are at an all time record as % population and some of the reddest states in the country have signed up for the optional expansions. The only reason every state hasn’t is because they are afraid to put it on the ballot in Florida or Texas, which currently have the worst healthcare in the nation.
Obamacare sigh ups are at an all time record as % population and some of the reddest states in the country have signed up for the optional expansions. The only reason every state hasn’t is because they are afraid to put it on the ballot in Florida or Texas, which currently have the worst healthcare in the nation.
and? topic wasn't if you like Obamacare or not, topic is that even Obama with two terms didn't much at all after that of impact to the economy (and that's why things went smoothly).
It hasn’t been eviscerated and it wasn't blatantly unconstitutional? Literally the stuff you said. It’s further engrained in law and policy than ever and republicans have given up on getting rid of it because they know they can’t.
It's currently the law insurance companies can't reject based on pre existing conditions on the marketplace, subsidizes are available to lower income people and all but a few states expanded medicare under the ACA ....not really debatable. But then again you tried to argue that it's fine to just assume that non random samples converge to population means; so I'm not sure of anything that that would be too dumb for you to believe.
It's currently the law insurance companies can't reject based on pre existing conditions on the marketplace, subsidizes are available to lower income people and all but a few states expanded medicare under the ACA ....not really debatable. But then again you tried to argue that it's fine to just assume that non random samples converge to population means; so I'm not sure of anything that that would be too dumb for you to believe.
It's medicaid expansion, not medicare. Who's actually the uninformed person here?
Yes an eviscerted version of ACA is still the law. It is still being fought in courts with yet another case coming up to SCOTUS soon.
This time it's about ACA mandate to cover preventive care free of charge. Unclear if the Trump admin will defend the law , not sure how it works if the fed want to drop it once it reached that stage. Or maybe they will side with plaintiffs so that SCOTUS will rule that's unconstitutional hopefully bringing down more pieces of the law with it. We'll see in approx 6 months
https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-supreme...
Keep in mind though that many courts have found parts of ACA, or the totality of it, unconstitutional. And while yes it's true that SCOTUS has only agreed with them in part in the past, this SCOTUS is more respectful of the actual constitution (ie more rightwing) so it could find itself agreeing with appeal courts this time around more than before.
Right. We don’t really even know if Trump will be able to implement mass tariffs and deportations so it’s hard to say how much that will slow growth rates. What we should be able to discuss is why Trumps policies didn’t lead to increased growth rates in his first term pre covid but we can’t even do that because OP thinks they were “terrific” without even bothering to look them up.
Except that (before Covid) things like record low unemployment rates, low interest rates, and low inflation were terrific.
Surely you could have taught yourself the basics of DFS, found an expert on DFS betting to be an author, and published some books? 2p2 was the premier name brand in publishing gambling books, you guys could have cashed in on a massive, massive new trend if you'd found a halfway-decent author to work with.
Waiting for online poker to come back is obviously not going to work in the age of AI. It's going to be impossible to convince ordinary people that they aren't playing against bots.
Trolly is right in this regard. As much as it pains me to say so, poker is never going to be like it was 20 years ago. It was something of a fad due to various things happening at the same time (Monkeymaker winning the WSOP, Rounders being a good and popular movie, and especially the general ease for Americans depositing money in online poker sites). Due to the current state of the game, I am not really sure that online poker is even fair anymore. Where I live in FL, which had a massive poker boom throughout the state in the 2000s, a huge number of the poker rooms have since closed down. I don't think poker is going to reach the heights that we saw in the 2000s again in our lifetimes, regardless of the state of the economy.
The current fad is sports betting, and even though I have never bet on sports before, I did recognize that this site did have a lot of excellent discussion available on the topic. It would not necessarily have been as easy to put out a few sports betting books, but in hindsight it seems like it was necessary to keep this site on the forefront of the gambling strategy industry. By the way, I don't think it is too late to get into that game at this point. The iron is still hot, so to speak.
FWIW, I sometimes buy the newer books you put out, even though I don't even really play poker anymore. I do so as out of a weird sense of loyalty and nostalgia, but I am just one person. When it comes to gambling these days, it seems like sports betting is the only game in town, and a legit book on sports betting would undoubtedly make a lot of money in today's environment. Regardless of whether I would personally be interested in a 2p2 sports betting book, I think it would sell welll... and I want to see you guys do well.
FWIW, I sometimes buy the newer books you put out, even though I don't even really play poker anymore. I do so as out of a weird sense of loyalty and nostalgia, but I am just one person. When it comes to gambling these days, it seems like sports betting is the only game in town, and a legit book on sports betting would undoubtedly make a lot of money in today's environment. Regardless of whether I would personally be interested in a 2p2 sports betting book, I think it would sell welll... and I
Thanks for the positive words. However, David and I have both gotten old, and I in particular don't want to do the work anymore that a top notch book (on any subject) would require.
Now this doesn't mean that if a terrific manuscript gets submitted to us we wouldn't take it on. But it does mean it would have to be a really good book for me to want to work on it, and as the publisher/editor/typesetter/proof reader/etc. I'm sure I did more work on a manuscript than anyone else out there.
By the way, to some degree this has always been my attitude. You would be surprised by the number of books we turned down, some of which sold well, that are now published by other publishers.
Except that (before Covid) things like record low unemployment rates, low interest rates, and low inflation were terrific.
There were record low unemployment rates when Trump took office. And you specifically said growth, which Trump tried but failed to improve. . Everything you say about the economy under Trump was true under Obama, which republicans called the worst recovery in history. Trump did nothing tj change the overall macro picture until he destroyed the economy with incompetent covid response.
A fair question is why despite taking on such huge additional public debt was Trump unable to meaningfully raise growth and labor force participation rates. These were both supposedly weaknesses of the obama economy right wingers talked about until Trump took over and failed to improve them. Then they stopped being indicative of a weak economy.
Except that (before Covid) things like record low unemployment rates, low interest rates, and low inflation were terrific.
During Biden he had as well similar record unemployment rate despite what millions of immigrants ?
Interest rates are done by the fed , trump has nothing to do it in it .
Yup because inflation lags in the real economy by 18 to 24 month .
But again I wonder why you believe when trump do debts it doesn’t create inflation but when Biden or democrats do deficit it does create inflation ?
I liked that post in the bitcoin thread
GDP growth last 4 years: $6.6 trillion
US debt growth last 4 years: $11.6 trillion
“BiTcOiN hAs No UtiLiTy!!1!!1!”
Ps: like écriture explain before , when you look at the numbers trump didn’t do much better Obama , he just followed the trend , despite massive spending while not even in a recession .
I mean why would anyone possibly wants to do big deficit , tax cut , etc if the economy was so great I wonder …..?
