British Politics
Been on holiday for a few weeks, surprised to find no general discussion of British politics so though I'd kick one off.
Tory leadership contest is quickly turning into farce. Trump has backed Boris, which should be reason enough for anyone with half a brain to exclude him.
Of the other candidates Rory Stewart looks the best of the outsiders. Surprised to see Cleverly and Javid not further up the betting, but not sure the Tory membership are ready for a brown PM.
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/bri...
Regarding the LD leadership contest, Jo Swinson is miles ahead of any other candidate (and indeed any of the Tory lot). Should be a shoe in.
Finally, it's Groundhog Day in Labour - the more serious the anti-Semitism claims get, the more Corbyn's cronies write their own obituary by blaming it on outlandish conspiracy theories - this week, it's apparently the Jewish Embassy's fault...
Just strike off America, and the remaining 31 can be whatever name works. North Atlantic still works I guess because Canada, Greenland (via Denmark), Iceland and UK?
With a little luck the wingnut cockwomble will withdraw soon anyway cos his Russian handler will tell him to. OTOH, Putin might want him to stay in to **** with NATO involvement.
Do you guys ever consider there is a chance that Putin just wants to recreate his version of a Russian empire, which would include areas like Ukraine, Belarus and Georgia (which were all part of former Russian empires) and not extend farther than this, and Europe is not really in any existential danger?
And all the extreme anti-Russia and especially anti-US rhetoric isn't useful or productive.
As I mentioned before, it isn't obvious to me that Russia is any worse than Turkey, except that ironically we look the other way with Turkey because they are viewed as a useful "ally" geopolitically.
The truth is most of the world sucks, and doesn't care at all about the bad behavior that nations like Turkey, Russia and China. But we still have to live in this world, and navigate relationships with a world that mostly sucks.
oh I think anyone with a brain know what Putin wants
Do you guys ever consider there is a chance that Putin just wants to recreate his version of a Russian empire, which would include areas like Ukraine, Belarus and Georgia (which were all part of former Russian empires) and not extend farther than this, and Europe is not really in any existential danger?
And all the extreme anti-Russia and especially anti-US rhetoric isn't useful or productive.
As I mentioned before, it isn't obvious to me that Russia is any worse than Turkey, except that ironica
It's not anti US or Russian rhetoric- it's the POTUS siding with an aggressor. The aggressor being Russia, who are led by an empire wanting dictator who murders dissidents and Vance has some neck lecturing Europe re free speech while getting into bed with Russia. Act like a dick and you tend to get regarded as one. Turkey is just whataboutism on your part as currently Ukraine is the relevant issue rather than generalised geopolitics. You'll probably get into bed with China next.
As I said, I agree that nobody should take the US for granted and the EU should have strengthened their respective military forces. But America, via the Trump administration's current stance, has shown its allies that it can't be trusted. (as if throwing the Kurds under the bus wasn't enough advance warning). Add Vance courting the German far right and it really doesn't make America look good in the eyes of the world. You want isolationsism, you'll get it, along with any feelings of good will toward you, if you choose to side with thugs.
Do you guys ever consider there is a chance that Putin just wants to recreate his version of a Russian empire, which would include areas like Ukraine, Belarus and Georgia (which were all part of former Russian empires) and not extend farther than this, and Europe is not really in any existential danger?
[...]
This post makes no sense, and I will demonstrate all the ways in which it makes no sense.
1. Geographically: If Putin uses military force to recreate some misguided illusion about the Russian empire, then Europe is in existential danger.
2. Logically: Many European countries have historically laid claim to vastly larger borders than they currently have. If everybody started making irredentist claims, you'd have hundreds of wars on a continent of 50 states.
4. Historically: If we make a list of things that puts an end to imperialist ambition, successfully expanding is at the absolutely bottom of such a list.
5. Strategically: You are suggesting that the strategy to beat an aggressor is to end alliances and sacrifice partners. This is the opposite of what you should do.
6. Tactically: You do not become more secure by handing an aggressor more advantageous territory to invade you from.
And while not all that relevant to your post, to rebuild the Russian Empire, Russia would also have to conquer territory from the US.
It's not anti US or Russian rhetoric- it's the POTUS siding with an aggressor. The aggressor being Russia, who are led by an empire wanting dictator who murders dissidents and Vance has some neck lecturing Europe re free speech while getting into bed with Russia. Act like a dick and you tend to get regarded as one. Turkey is just whataboutism on your part as currently Ukraine is the relevant issue rather than generalised geopolitics. You'll probably get into bed with China next.
As I said, I agre
The Kurds in Rojava and minority groups throughout Turkey's sphere of influence who have been the direct recipient of Turkish genocide might disagree with this. Turkey also is a main supporter of Hamas, so Israelis might disagree with this.
Ukraine is the main issue to you, because you care about Ukraine/Europe and dont care about Rojava. And a big part of the reason you selectively care is because European elites/media have decided to look the other way when it comes to Turkey, for mostly selfish realpolitik reasons. There are certainly no first principles involved.
Do you have any idea how many journalists, judges, politicians, activists Erdogan has thrown in jail for dissent over his totalitarian rule. Probably per capita more than Putin.
EU efforts seems likely to be blocked by leaders on Putin's payroll, and I don't know if there are ways around that.
Using the NATO framework would be the most logical options, as most of the armed forces are already trained on NATO doctrine and logistics.
With the collapse of the US as a security partner the question now is whether Europe can move fast enough. I can guarantee that as we speak, Russia is taking the old plans to invade the Baltics out of the drawer and dusting them off, and the q
This could be difficult, as the Russians appear to have expended their trained military manpower in Ukraine and are currently incurring large losses to make minimal gains against a theoretically weaker opponent. (And the poor North Koreans, going by those captured, don't know where they are or what they're doing there.) Russia is also short of armour, producing and refurbishing only small batches since the Ukraine invasion, against enormous losses (
). And Russia can't seem to produce new fighter jets in any numbers, and its old ones are shot and are not making any impression.
So Putin's tactic to recreate the USSR of his youth is a mainly political one, to prise the US apart from Western Europe. Because Trump is such a mug, Putin thinks he's getting somewhere, but he's really just making the US look ridiculous. (Trump's envoy just ducked out of a press conference with Zelensky, evidently because he knew he had no face-saver to report.) In regard to the Baltic states, NATO still has a policy of 'Baltic air policing' with Allied air forces providing constant fighter cover (https://ac.nato.int/missions/air-policin...). Doesn't really matter if the Americans renege. Putin's rusty cast-iron air force can't contend with Rafales or Typhoons, and Putin can't afford to trip the wire of NATO Article 5. If he were counting on a US veto of Article 5, he might be one of the last people in the world to realise that you cannot count on Donald Trump.
Maybe I am just being naive, but when enough time passes I think Russia is going to want to normalize with the west, as long as the door is still open.
At the end of the day Russians see themselves as part of the western world culturally, and that matters.
Russian elites still teach their kids English and want to holiday in Switzerland and France.
They aren’t teaching their kids Hindi and mandarin and planning holidays in china.
I really question if they have the ambition and I definitely don’t think they have the capacity to conquer Europe.
I am not saying this is a righteous war on Russias part. But I think the alarmism that we can’t make peace because Russia will just be enabled to push further west isn’t correct.
Maybe I am just being naive, but when enough time passes I think Russia is going to want to normalize with the west, as long as the door is still open.
At the end of the day Russians see themselves as part of the western world culturally, and that matters.
Russian elites still teach their kids English and want to holiday in Switzerland and France.
They aren’t teaching their kids Hindi and mandarin and planning holidays in china.
I really question if they have the ambition and I definitely do
the "long term" will depend greatly on what comes after Putin (which could be 2, 5, 10, 15 years from now, but not much more than that).
too many things can happen in between, to great uncertainty to make any call, almost all scenarios are possible tbh.
ofc Russia has no capability even to conquer the whole of Ukraine nevermind Europe lol
Maybe I am just being naive, but when enough time passes I think Russia is going to want to normalize with the west, as long as the door is still open.
At the end of the day Russians see themselves as part of the western world culturally, and that matters.
Russian elites still teach their kids English and want to holiday in Switzerland and France.
They aren’t teaching their kids Hindi and mandarin and planning holidays in china.
I really question if they have the ambition and I definit
Yes, this is naive. You are doing the traditional mistake of looking at the side of Russia that is facing westwards and thinking it represents the nation.
There have since imperial times been groups in Russia that want it to align with the western world, but these groups have a history of being viewed with suspicion to outright aggression depending on where you are in Russia's traditional cycle of "attempting democracy" to "regressing into despotism". I would even posit that one of the reason liberalization often fails in Russia is because it is viewed as "western", thus making it easier to dismiss.
The current reigning ideology in Russia is that the western world is weak, immoral and at war with Russia. While this view does not reflect all Russians, it is a popular view. As for western-aligned conservatives who think the same and find themselves drawn to this Russian movement, I'm guessing they are mostly viewed as something akin to a cute monkey; amusing, but not something you bring into the house.
If you told a Russian that Russians see themselves as part of the western world, the response would likely exist somewhere on a scale ranging from dismissive laughter to fistfight.
This could be difficult, as the Russians appear to have expended their trained military manpower in Ukraine and are currently incurring large losses to make minimal gains against a theoretically weaker opponent. (And the poor North Koreans, going by those captured, don't know where they are or what they're doing there.) Russia is also short of armour, producing and refurbishing only small batches since the Ukraine invasion, against enormous losses (
I'm not that concerned with who "wins" such a war, I'm concerned that we're approaching a point where miscalculations will be made and we will start falling down the slippery slope.
Anyways, I am derailing this thread which is dedicated to British politics, so I will stop for now. But it was nice to discuss this topic without the troll crowd in the Ukraine-threads.
