British Politics
Been on holiday for a few weeks, surprised to find no general discussion of British politics so though I'd kick one off.
Tory leadership contest is quickly turning into farce. Trump has backed Boris, which should be reason enough for anyone with half a brain to exclude him.
Of the other candidates Rory Stewart looks the best of the outsiders. Surprised to see Cleverly and Javid not further up the betting, but not sure the Tory membership are ready for a brown PM.
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/bri...
Regarding the LD leadership contest, Jo Swinson is miles ahead of any other candidate (and indeed any of the Tory lot). Should be a shoe in.
Finally, it's Groundhog Day in Labour - the more serious the anti-Semitism claims get, the more Corbyn's cronies write their own obituary by blaming it on outlandish conspiracy theories - this week, it's apparently the Jewish Embassy's fault...
Fair enough. I just don't want us to be picked off by a malignant US while Starmer or whomever succeeds him mouth off about the "special relationship". Pass the sick bucket.
Well, we definitely agree there. I honestly think the rest of the world should just consider USA closed for business for the next 5 years, and everyone rearrange around that.
Black people in Britain have a much higher arrest rate than white people, or the average, or any other ethnic group. There might be various reasons for this, but I don't think 'poverty' is known to be one of them, as Bangladeshis are often relatively poor but have a below-average arrest rate. (Pakistanis come out just ahead of white people, Indians some considerable way behind.) There is presumably a cultural factor which may or may not be connected to 'poverty'.
Poverty is a poor overall predictor but it likely interacts with single parenthood. Children growing up in a 1-parent household have (on average) worse outcomes on every single metric in life. I CBA to look for the data on this, but I'd bet "black Caribbean" have much higher rates of single parenthood than any of the other poor demographics (this is true in America, I would bet it's true in South London, for example).
So, particularly when it's an absent father, young men look for other male role models. Unlucky for them, the local drug dealer is on hand to fulfil that role, and a life of crime ensues.
A surprisingly non stupid post from Elrazor. Now wait for Luciom to turn up, insisting it’s all about inferior cultures or some such bullahit.
Meanwhile, for anyone wondering why left-wing parties are struggling to connect with voters in the west...
As far as I can tell, it's a pastiche of the Mirror's headline after the Christchurch attack:
Poverty is a poor overall predictor but it likely interacts with single parenthood. Children growing up in a 1-parent household have (on average) worse outcomes on every single metric in life. I CBA to look for the data on this, but I'd bet "black Caribbean" have much higher rates of single parenthood than any of the other poor demographics (this is true in America, I would bet it's true in South London, for example).
So, particularly when it's an absent father, young men look for other male role
Can't link the ONS spreadsheet directly, but it would appear that in England & Wales in 2019, 43% of Black African households, 43% of Black Caribbean and 62% of Black Other were single-parent, compared to 14% of all White and Asian (bundled together for some reason), 6% of Indian, 14% of Pakistani and 12% of Bangladeshi.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationa...
Bit more stuff:-
I grew up for some years in a single-parent household, but it wasn't in London and we didn't have any local drug dealers (and if we had I'd probably have regarded them like any 'strange man offering sweets to children').
I grew up on a council estate in South London, in a single-parent household. If any drug dealers turned up round our way, they got the **** kicked out of them lol.
diebitter that was decades ago and it was a very different country then - I also grew up in a single parent household and there weren't any drug dealers around.
Then we moved to London and there were some, which was great.
Can't link the ONS spreadsheet directly, but it would appear that in England & Wales in 2019, 43% of Black African households, 43% of Black Caribbean and 62% of Black Other were single-parent, compared to 14% of all White and Asian (bundled together for some reason), 6% of Indian, 14% of Pakistani and 12% of Bangladeshi.
It's actually 63% of Black Caribbean, not 43%, so by far the highest demographic. However, this is where the poverty aspect comes in. If you're a single parent, but relatively middle class, the child doesn't have an absent father, has an active extended family, lives in a good area and so on, then the child is somewhat buffered from absolute poor outcomes, although they still have relatively worse outcomes on average compared to a 2-parent household in the same situation.
I'm actually surprised the Black African number is so high, but I would bet that on average they have a better financial situation than Black Caribbean. Certainly there are far more doctors, nurses and teachers migrating here from Nigeria than Jamaica (controlling for population).
diebitter that was decades ago and it was a very different country then - I also grew up in a single parent household and there weren't any drug dealers around.
Then we moved to London and there were some, which was great.
That's true.
There were drug dealers around in a lot of places elsewhere in South London of course, but mostly they were young lads on street corners, not exactly role models.
Right, and north London was the same. Street deals were usually rip offs and you had to know someone you could visit.
But the drug gang wars hadn’t started then, and those are what have driven violent crime. We missed the chance to legalise or decriminalise soft drugs and predictably ended up with the war on drugs failing horribly and leading to the situation we have now.
Interesting points in the Guardian from Polly Toynbee about how Labour might want to consider actually doing something with some haste (think bigger, think faster). I disagree with some of the targets for their effort (rejoin EU blah blah), but I do otherwise think she's right. They should just DO SOMETHING that doesn't take years to actually have an outcome
I'm not sure that knees can bend any faster
Well, anyone with half a brain knows trade with the US is totally unreliable as an entrepreneurial venture with the orange crybaby cockwomble calling the shots over tariffs, so given this and the closeness of the EU, of course trade with EU is way more up the list as a sensible goal than merka.
But ultimately the quid pro quo of either needs to be a big part of any negotiation. I don't really see either as prospective friendly partners right now. I suspect both will want more than just free trade.
