Climate Change - increasingly horrible disasters loom

Can you name a single potential example of the natural climate variability which is causing the Earth to heat beyond the increase in human emitted greenhouse gases?

No .... you can't.

You have nothing. Not even a thimble of intellect behind your positions. Just a pathetic parrot.

There's nothing that announces to the world that a person is a stupid mf as much as climate denial.

How did the earth heat up to end the ice age? Did the cave men have cars we didn't know about, or were the dinosaurs burping.

Lol

So now you are resorting to personal insults when your ludicrous claims get questioned.

That just shows you aren't worth engaging with.

nut nut, wtf is "climate change denial"?

I don't think anyone's arguing that we don't have climate change. Of course we do, our planet has been going through climate cycles for millions of years.

What I'm personally denying is we don't have as much to do with it as you were programmed to believe.

The Earth has been routinely warming out of ice ages like clockwork for the past 2.6 million years since the beginning of the Quaternary Age.

The Earth's orbital relationship to the sun is not constant. It's elliptical, not circular. The Earth's axis tilts during it's orbital cycles.

The Earth's orbital cycles last ~ 100k years.

At the point where Earth is receiving minimum sunlight, the Earth's atmospheric CO2 concentration is 160 - 180 ppm. As the Earth's orbit allows more sunlight to reach the surface, the additional warming causes carbon to be released from land and ocean reservoirs, increasing CO2 in the atmosphere. This causes more warming and a feedback loop ensues until the Earth's orbit starts allowing less sunlight to the surface and the cycle goes in reverse.

So for the last 2.5 million years, the CO2 concentration has been like this. 160 ==> 280 ==> 160 ==> 280 ==> 160 ==> 280, etc, etc, etc. Over and over and over again. Like an EKG of a heart rhythm.

That's NATURAL VARIABILITY ..... but the major NATURAL VARIABLE is atmospheric CO2.

In the last 100 years, CO2 levels have gone from 280 ==> 425 ppm and CO2 equivalent is now well over 500 ppm.

The increase from 280 to 500+ is all human.

It's a theory, just like evolution is just a theory.

At least now you asked a question. That's a key to the pathway out of being a moron.

Now let's see if you have the ability to grasp the answer. That Earth's historical oscillation between glacial and interglacial period is a function of the Earth's cyclical orbital relationship to the Sun.

Go ahead ..... confirm that you have the capacity to grasp a simple concept.

It's a theory with no competing alternative because nothing else makes a lick of sense.

Edit: You aren't offering an alternative explanation and neither is Judith Curry.

Here you go Brian. Read up about Milankovitch Cycles. They're named after the Serbian scientist who documented them.

That's the dominant natural variability driver over the last 2.6M years. Occasionally we get a massive volcanic eruption whose consequences are short lived.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles

en

Milankovitch cycles - Wikipedia

So u decide when actual facts and incidents happened are valid or not even tho they are true .
I rest my case thx .

awww did I upset you? You're calling someone a moron for disagreeing with you? That's a TRUE 100% moron. Take a look in the mirror, bud.

Many people aren't buying the "we need to stop using fossil fuels or we're all gonna fry to death quick" conspiracy theory so go run along now, you're a useless immature troll.

I'm not saying they didn't happen, but in business, when a bank asks you to provide a PFS or even a business plan, everyone as a default will write it up on the higher side as opposed to the lower more conservative side. That's why if the bank wanted to verify the information, they would NEVER EVER IN A MILLION YEARS take a business owner's word for how much his properties are worth, ever. They would hire an appraiser, at the customer's expense, to find out what they're worth.

I'm not saying whether or not Trump's team did this on purpose, but assuming they did, please cite another case where a bank was paid back in full, and wasn't even the complainant, never had a problem with the borrower, but the gov't based on nothing with zero probable cause except for the fact that the attorney general hates Trump, subpoenaed all of someone's business records just to find dirt on a company, and then prosecuted them and found them guilty like they did with Trump. It's unheard of.
I rest my case thx .

The spoil is for Montreal corp. so he doesn't detrail the threads

Fraud is illegal period .
Go try it and see out it goes …

And btw :

You are just a great example of a cultist .
Can’t never admit anything wrong about a guy like trump is amazing …
Just show how blind you are .

You believe in fraud where there isn’t and you don’t believe in fraud where there is .

It depends exactly what the crime was.

Trump's "crimes" were the equivalent of me asking how much you weigh, and you telling me 250 but you really weigh 325. Is it ok for me to call the police and have a felony fraud charge placed upon you for lying to me then sentence you to the max penalty of 7 years in jail?

Another thing you don't take into consideration is how big his financial docs are, they're probably thousands of pages, you don't think there are any mistakes in there or things that aren't 100% accurate? I hope this helps, you're almost there to realize .

That's easy to say from a position of grotesque ignorance.

There's no conspiracy ..... except maybe from people like Jehovah's Witnesses and Seventh Day Adventists who believe in an apocalypse being the precursor to ascension to heaven. Those people WANT an apocalypse and they're getting one.

It's sad that the climate deniers are a math free cohort except for the math of how much money is in their budgets and bank accounts.

It's very difficult to grasp science without understanding math. They just recite some stupid dogma which is part of the way their math free tribe.

Do the know the frequency and wavelength of infrared radiation and the bonds which hold a carbon dioxide molecule together ?

Do they know the atmospheric concentration of CO2 ? Do they know that it's rising faster and faster ?

Do they know how much more water is sucked from plants and the soil as the atmosphere gets warmer ?

Do they understand change which is exponential and not linear ?

Do they understand that the Earth is finite and an economic system which requires perpetual growth is by definition, heading for a cliff ?

Do they know how much male testosterone has declined in the last half century as a result of environmental toxins.

No .... they don't know any of these things. They are just maintaining a force field around their minds to keep the truth out BECAUSE THEY CAN'T HANDLE IT.

But deep down ..... despite all of their protests and insults, they know. The truth is sinking in and they don't know how to handle it. They don't have the emotional capacity to deal with sadness. So they get angry and defiant to keep those feelings of sadness at bay,

This desire for perpetual economic growth and unsustainable standard of living is sending us off a cliff. Food supply is at risk. It's not just eggs. It's oranges and chocolate and olive oil. Food inflation is rising. We all know it.

And their patron saint, Donald Trump is going to eliminate regulations which attempt to protect the environment. He's an accelerationist.

CO2 from fossil fuels have a different proportion of carbon isotopes than are found in the natural carbon cycle, so by measuring the change of the isotope ratios over the years we can tell it is anthropogenic CO2.

It's kind of like if you had a cup of coffee that is 80% coffee and 20% milk, then you pour a shittonne of milk into it and it is now 50% coffee and 50% milk, you could back out how much new milk was added.

Then someone tells you didn't actually add the milk because cows make milk naturally

Well I hope u copy trump and see for yourself genius .
You think trump did was nothing but it wasn’t nothing ….

Go sell a house or land and exaggerate 300% the area and see how it goes .
Please just do it , put your money where your mouth is and see how your theories end up true .

It's not just me. A lot of people think it was nothing including top nationally respected lawyers and law professors, they said the case was a joke and a clear politically motivated attempt to take down a political opponent (the one they already conspired to take down in 2020).

Ok thank you for this example hopefully now you'll understand. If I bought or sold a house and I listed it for 300% the area and someone wanted to buy it, what's the problem? If he's paying cash via a wire from his bank account I'm pretty sure that's legal. But if someone was borrowing money against that house, the bank will require them to get it appraised and inspected to see if it's worth the offer. They'll quickly look at neighboring houses and histories which will kill or lower the deal. They won't call the police, get the state attorney general involved and indict, try, convict, and try to throw in jail with no key . The world and life doesn't work the way you're claiming because you have a bias against our president.

The deniers have no answers, so now they are just creating noise in this thread around topics having nothing to do with climate change.

It's a tactic of distraction.

We see what you're doing Montralcorp and Playbig2000

i am a denier of the benefits of emission reductions.

AMA

what I don't deny is that the world is 1.3-1.4 Celsius hotter than the 1850-1900 average and that's mainly anthropogenic.

I deny it's rational to pay a lot to reduce current emissions for every single country (even more for any single company or individual) and I'll start by pointing at you at a thing called the prisoner dilemma, which if you are rational tells you you are the sucker if you cooperate

OK Luciom, you're on.

1) How long (in years) does it take the Earth's atmospheric temperature to reach equilibrium to the heat setting (atmospheric GHG levels) ?

Let me explain by way of analogy. If you have put a pot with a gallon of water on the stove and turn the temperature to high. Does it boil immediately ? No. It might take 15 minutes before the water boils and the heat starts venting off into the room.

The Earth surface is a gigantic pot of water. Over 90% of the additional heat energy from higher GHG levels is stored in the ocean which is not included in the 1.3-1.4C figure you cited which pertains only to the atmosphere. (Note: The temperature increase you refer to was actually 1.6C in 2024. )

2) How much will the atmospheric temperature increase be when the planet reaches equilibrium to its current GHG levels ?

For reference, paleo climate reconstruction reveals a 6C range of temperature during the Pleistocene (last 2.6M years) when CO2 levels varied between 160 ppm and 280 ppm. Current CO2 equivalent (including methane and other GHG's) is ~ 525 ppm.

3) What are the consequences for human civilization in the event we go 5C beyond the 1850-1900 baseline ?

I look forward to your answers.

Question for the entire forum ....

Name any single factor besides greenhouse gases (such as CO2 and methane) which cause heat (infrared radiation) to remain within the confines of Earth's atmosphere and oceans ??

For reference .... solar radiation coming to Earth is light, not heat. Solar radiation is transformed into infrared radiation after it is absorbed by the Earth's surface. After it is absorbed ... it radiates back out toward space. It is retained in the Earth system as a result of being absorbed by GHG molecules and redirected.