Probability college basketball totals
I'm sorry if this is wrong forum but trying to see how to calculate one games chance of being the highest scoring game on the day based on the Over Under point line for the game.
For instance if there are 8 games and the over under totals are as follows
175
157
153
148
144
144
153
132
how would I calculate the percent chance that the game with an over under total of 175 would actually end up being the highest game total of the day
Thanks
Jimmy
1 Reply
Not enough info; you'd need to know their distributions. Even if you knew they were all roughly Normal, they have different variances (though maybe you could estimate those from the alternate lines).
If you know the distributions and want the probability of Game 1 being the highest score, you can do:
Σ[P(game1 score = x) * ∏P(game_k < x)]
We range that product for all k>1 and we range the sum across all possible x's. We can take that product because each game is independent.
