Unusual roulette tournament rebuy question
I'm qualified for a 25-person roulette tournament, €500K guaranteed. Initial 1000 stack is included for everyone, additional rebuy costs €5000 for 1000 chips and double rebuy costs €10000 for 2000 chips.
However, there is an option to purchase Early Bird double rebuy for €7500. But shall you not use it (you get good stack with initial stack), there is no refunds i.e. you lose your €7500 essentially.
Let's say my target in this tournament is to 7.2x my initial stack which means I divide my starting stack into 5 even stacks and place it on 5 different numbers.
So the chance of this happening is 5/37 * 100% = 13.51%.
So 13.51% of times I lose my €7500 = 0.1351 * 7500 = -€1013.25.
Which means me busting my initial stack is 32/37 * 100% = 86.49%.
So 86.49% of times I save €2500 = 0.8649 * 2500 = +€2162.25.
So EV of buying Early Bird (assuming I play strategy of trying to 7.2x my initial stack) is -1013.25 + 2162.25 = +€1149.
Does it make sense? Or am I completely wrong/missing something?
1 Reply
The easier way to look at it is that you will either spend 7500 100% of the time ( taking the early rebuy) or 10000 86.49% of the time. The expected cost of option 1 obviously is 7500. The expected cost of option 2 is 8649, which is higher. Take the early rebuy.
The breakeven point is 75%. If you had a strategy where you need to rebuy less often than 75% of the time you’d want to pass on the early rebuy and spend the 10K if you did actually bust.
