HS player 140 bi below EV over the last 4 mo. Need some perspective
Title basically says it all. I play basically anything 5/10-200/400. Been doing this for over a decade and have done well. The last year, but particularly last 4 mo have been basically the limit that I can handle mentally. >140 buy ins under EV over the last 4 mo. I don't know how to continue doing this when I'm getting results like this. With the probability of some sort of collusion/RTA being >5% and the likelihood of a sub 1% run of cards being very high, continuing to pursue poker seems so bleak and mostly painful. I"m not sure what to do or what other areas I could possibly pursue as a job. I genuinely enjoy poker and like the strategy and competitive aspect of it but at this point I"d rather play chess bc if I lose I know it's within my control to fix. This **** I have limited control over. I continually focus on playing as well as I'm capable of and telling myself that I can not control the cards, but is this even statistically possible over 175k hands? The worst part of it all is that it's across at least 6 different sites so it's not like I can attribute it all to bot farming/RTA. Putting some rough estimates into variance calculators I"m running at a < 1/2500 run over 175k hands. It basically should not happen and yet here we are. I don't know how to process this. It's bleeding over into my personal life and relationships and causing me to play worse in the present.
Main responses I"m told are "take a break." Like ya i've tried that. What else?
Considering Elliot Roe mental game coaching bc I've heard good things but aside from that what else can I possibly do?
3 Replies
Ok so, possibly for the first time in your career, you've hit a patch of adversity you didn't expect to ever happen. It is happening. Why does it matter so much? I can infer a couple reasons why from your post:
1. You've lost a lot of money
2. You have no other income options
I would tackle those two first. Move down, preserve the bankroll, find other income options, devise a plan for the future.
Second, I notice some cheating speculation that while possible, is more likely due to a massive difference between your mental/emotional expectations and current reality. I would tackle your expectations next, and do some deep thinking and soul searching about why your expectations are so far from the reality you're currently experiencing. Because I can say pretty much without reservation that if it wasn't for the size of this gap, you wouldn't be making this post.
What you been playing lately? What is your standard deviation, expected winrate and observed winrate?
My advice to you is to stop jerking off if you dont its only gonna get worse
