Triplechain

December 2024 DC Highlights

Monthly Race

• SubArcticK won the December DC race by a wide margin, posting one of the best months in DC history. SubArc led the table with eight wins, 17 top-five scores, and 26 top-10 scores, and his total score of 359 was the fourth-highest in the history of the DC. It was SubArcticK’s third monthly DC win of the year and 16th overall, which is the fourth-most all-time.
  
  
• arjun13 and Hg80 finished in second and third place, respectively, in December. arjun13 tied for second in wins (5) and had the second-most top-10 (22) and top-five scores (15). Hg80 tied for fourth in wins (4) and had the third-most top-10 (20) and top-five scores (13).
  
  
• SmalltownBoy and Dos rounded out the top five, separated by just two points. SmalltownBoy posted four wins and 10 top-five scores, while Dos had three wins and 11 top-five scores.
  
  
• Among the rest of the top 10, Dynasty (sixth place) tied for the second-most wins for the month (5); Kampi77 (eighth place) had just 13 top-10 scores, but nine of them were in the top five; and velourfog jumped from 11th to ninth place with a third-place finish on the last day of the month. wafflesobv, NP, and nails finished just outside the top 10.
  

Milestones

• arjun13 moved into fourth place on the all-time DC wins list, passing anton-09.
  
• On December 9, Hg80 played in his 4,000th DC, becoming the 11th player to reach this milestone.
  
• On December 18, NP played in his 3,000th DC, the 18th player to do so.
  
• On December 13, Kampi77 played in his 2,500th DC, the 23rd player to do so.
  

Stat of the Month

• 10: The number of times a player has won exactly eight DCs in a single month, including SubArcticK in December.
  

2024 Yearly Race

Highlights from the 2024 yearly race:

• arjun13 won the yearly race by a wide margin for the second straight year. In fact, he scored the exact same number of yearly race points (205) as last year, which is tied for the third-most all-time. arjun13 won four monthly DC races in 2024 and finished second three times.
  
• SubArcticK came in second place thanks to three monthly DC race wins, including two in the last three months of the year. SmalltownBoy rounded out the podium in third.
  
• arjun13 led the table with 45 DC wins in 2024, good enough for seventh place on the all-time calendar-year wins list. SmalltownBoy’s 43 DC wins were the 10th-highest total for a calendar year.
  
• arjun13 finished the year with more than 2,900 DC points, the fifth-highest total in DC history.
  
• Four players -- SubArcticK, Dynasty, wafflesobv, and Hg80 – played all 366 DCs in 2024, while dogfloss missed just one DC during the year.
  
• 19 different players finished in the top 10 in at least one monthly DC race -- the fewest since 2014.
  

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UJVJ9AakDnkqfyYFqPYpHtTc9G3gQgkRsb9BMknBd-M/edit?usp=sharing

Google Docs

TripleChain DC Stats 2024

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cRCufTYDUOObpt4wwXBOsJ0memf4JJSsll_K_mYqdI8/edit?usp=sharing

Google Docs

TripleChain DC Hall of Fame

Happy New year everyone! Let's start 2025 with me providing some tips on how to improve your DC win rate. If you are like me and you don't give a **** about your daily rating and are just interested in your DC win rate, read on.

First let's compare SubArctick with myself. We are roughly equally talented players. He has the higher rating, I have the higher win rate. How come? I suspect he tries to find the best flexible way to play a game to make sure he always gets a good score and reasonably often the topscore. I will go out of my way to find a play that lowers my average score, but improves the likelihood of actually winning the DC. The hero or zero play.

So here are my tips.

TIP 1:
Be aware of how you are doing vs the rest of the field. Do not only play your own game. Also consider the game being played by other people following a different strategy. Are you ahead of them? Are you behind them?

EXAMPLE: Rack 1 comes 65xxx. Some people will put the 6 in the middle zone. Some people will put the 5 in the middle zone. Be aware how the others are faring with their choice as the play continues.

EXAMPLE: There were 4x6 in rack 1-4 and you assume some people have chosen the Advanced setup.

While you have chosen Dynasty strategy with 6s as major outer chain.

You must be aware how their chain plays out. If 2x6 appear in different racks in rack 5-8, you will both 4-zone 6s and you have potentially the advantage with better 2nd and 3rd chain. If 3x6 come, you are behind and if that advantage cannot be overcome with other chains, you have no choice but to play aggressively and hope to snake through the middle in rack 9:

TIP 2: Your mindset must be this during the game: I CAN WIN THE DC TODAY. Never give up until you are 100% sure you've wrecked the game. Of course that requires you are following tip 1 and don't play your game in a vacuum. You must always consider: what do I need in the following racks to beat all the other players and strategies, even if it is unlikely to happen? Assume that will happen and commit to that. Throw "flexible" out of the window, if you are running behind the field. In such a case, often desperate measures and long shots are required to pull back in front.

EXAMPLE: You have decent chains, but you are certain other people will have better. There are two disconnected 2s and in rack 8 comes 1x2. The ABC play is to connect that 2. However, as we have established, that will never win you the DC, it will just limit your losses. How about putting that 2 in a free zone and hope for 3x2 in rack 9? If you pull off this long shot (3.5%), you will have a better bonus than anyone else in the field and might snatch an unlikely win. 3.5% is better than 0. Of course, 80% of the time your average score will convert into a frigid bottom, but we have already agreed you don't care about your rating.

TIP 3. Follow a strategy that nobody else is following. Everybody knows that higher numbers are more profitable to play than lower numbers. Everybody knows the typical setups with best chance of success. Everybody knows more/less how to play the bonus optimally. If you pick a path nobody else is following and it has a chance of success higher than 0, you might pull of the win, as you are the only one to find it. This is probably the best way for below average players to beat the top players in a DC. Here are the primary examples of "playing against the field".

TIP 3A. Commit to chain 3s early.
You will need to ignore one of the 3 higher numbers and simply hope that you make a better chain. Most players will not commit to 3s ever. And if they are forced to do so through rack 4, you will have the advantage of having the better chain of 3s. Now you pray to the God of your choice that the high number you ignored doesn't show up much in rack 5-8, while 3s come plentiful.

TIP 3B. Be liberal about what your major and minor chains are.
Most players will build their Dynasty setup like this:

6s are your major chain, 5s the major inner chain, 4s the minor inner chain. Optimally, the empty spot is occupied by another 4.
However, there is no law against switching 4s, 5s and 6s around. At the end of the day, it often comes down to the luck of the roll.
In the setup above, if the game provides 2x or 4x 6s in rack 5-8, you are happy. However, if 3x6s are provided in rack 5-8, then you are not happy and would have been better off running 6s as an inner chain.

TIP 3C. In rack 1-4, connect more (or less) 2s than is theoretically sound.
If rack 1-4 shows 3x2s, you can be quite certain that everybody will put them into different zones. If you connect two of them, you will come out ahead if racks 5-9 contain 0-1 2s. That is about 6.3% to occur. If your winrate is less than 6.3%, this might be a way to improve it! You will tie with the field if 2x2s appear in rack 5-9 (12.6%). If more than 2x2s appear in rack 5-9, you are in trouble. Well, that is the gambit you are playing.
If rack 1-4 shows 4x2s, some players might connect 2 of them, while most players will not. Again, try the effect of connecting two 2s. This time you have the advantage 19% of the time, when there are 0-2 2s in rack 5-9.

if rack 1-4 brings 5x2s, most people will connect two of them. You can play differently and set them up like this:

Now just hope that 2s will be flooding rack 5-9.

TIP 3D. Play basic strategy.

(Numbers can be exchanged obviously and basic strategy is still intact if one of the center numbers is missing).

We all played basic strategy at the Big Bang of Triplechain, until we learned that advanced strategy and Dynasty setups are much better. Now, nobody plays it. Basic strategy isn't very good because the third chain is its problem child. If you need to rely on rack 9 to chain through the center zone, you will often find out the number doesn't come (40%) or that some 1s in rack 9 screw over your bonus.
The benefit of playing basic strategy is not the fact you can pull off a snake charmer. Nice though, if you can do it. The benefit is that sometimes your major chain number comes twice in rack 5-8 (different racks) and at least once in rack 9.

You will be the only one to snake 6s. What is the likelihood that rack 5-8 shows exactly 2x 6s (in different racks) AND at least 1x6 in rack 9? Well, it is 9.36%. There aren't many players with a win rate over 9.36%, so basic strategy might be an option for them to consider more seriously.
Let me further add to this that basic strategy becomes a worse option if racks 1-4 bring more than 3x 1s. Since you need to rely on snaking though the center spot, which is a natural place for a 1 from rack 9. If 1s are scarce in rack 1-4, basic strategy becomes a much better option to play against the field.

TIP 3E. Play more than 4 of the same number in your rack 4 setup.
Most players stop at 4 of the same number, when they are setting up in rack 1-4. However, the following setups often turn out to be winners:

With the left setup, you can actually build a snake charmer. More importantly, 6s can be snaked with only 2x 6s in two different ways, without hindering the second chain:

When a 6 comes in rack 5-6, play for the left snake. When no 6s come in rack 5-6, you need to block one of the options with a non-6 number. The correct play is to block the left snake and play for the right snake. This is a rare setup, but nicely profitable if you can manage it. If my calculations are correct, you have 16.1% to snake your major chain, while the advanced players get stuck at 3 or 4 zones. You also have a really good second chain that can add to your win%.

The 5-2-1 setup is more straightforward and easier to accomplish. If 2 of the major chain number appear in rack 5-8 (19.8%), you are probably ahead of Advanced/Dynasty players. With 1 possibly as well (10.4%).
These setups that are heavily biased to a single number are obviously best with 6s and not quite advisable with 4s.

I think these are the most reasonable ways to play against the field and hope to get lucky. Of course, any kind of weird strategy can suddenly turn out to be the winner (like the DC from [U]October 13th, 2024[/U] LOL). Whether you play against the field or not, and which method you pick is not something you decide pre-game, but something you decide as the racks appear. You will feel bad though if 19 players share the DC win and you do not, because you had to do something weird. That's part of the game. Good luck!

Hi Gabe

First let me say that I look forward to any TC insights from you. You have always been willing to share info and discuss strategy/tactics with the TC community, and you make it a better place by doing so. You had the same approach with online Stratego when that was alive and kicking….

Are your comments about my approach correct??

It seems clear you are definitely “all in” on going for wins. I think others might “think” they have the same approach but probably fall short of actually acting on it every DC. In trying to be objective about my own approach to wins, I think I am about 90-95% play for wins at all costs .

I will go for wins and don’t care too much about where I end up if I don’t win, but I am not as committed as you. For example, I am not going to go for a 2% win chance on some YOLO when another play in rack 8, could leave me with an 80% chance of a 2nd or 3rd. (I just used random figures for the example).

Part of this approach/philosophy is that I don’t trust myself to see and calculate the same opportunities that you (and others) might be seeing and acting upon. I am not great at the advanced calculations in this game. Sure, I have the important 5 or 6 percentages down (60%, 40%, 15% for 2 of anything in a rack, 27% for x but no y in a rack, etc). But, when I have to combine many factors I am not good. So, where you might have spotted a win equity edge by going a different path, if I had the same board as you I may not see it. An area related to my lack of ability to calculate complex EV is that if I took the “win at all cost” approach that you do, I’d worry that I might be leaving wins on the table while chasing an alternate or non-typical path to a win?

I do change track obviously, but it unless it is later in the game it is usually more instinctive than precisely calculated. See yesterday’s (Jan 11) DC for example. In rack 5 I could not see a win without 4 zones of 5s, so I took that route even though I would need an extra 6. I was not so worried about five zones of 5s through the middle in rack 9, as there were 1s in all four outer zones. Still, I wasn’t calculating anything at that point. That was way over my head. I was just considering where other players might be, and then I acted on what I thought would give me the best chance at a win. In the end it was more good luck than good play. I was surprised there were not better boards out there.

I guess what I am saying is that I am trying to go for wins, but that doesn't mean that I will see all the opportunities you see during a game. And, as noted, I am not likely to chase a very low % play at the expense of a very high finish. For example, I am not deliberately leaving three open 2s going into rack 9 in the hopes I will hit a 222XX rack 9. But, good on you for doing so.

My approach to the DC is quite simple. My goal is to keep options open early and after rack 4 be in a spot where I am in a winnable position, and then make the best decisions possible in racks 5-8 to get a win. Nothing novel there. IMO, the feedback on how well I am doing the above relative to the field can be found in win-rate, DC rating, and Daily Challenge Race stats.

So, the most important things for me, in order of priority are:

Having a win-rate in DCs at 10% or higher. A target of 40+ wins per year is nice, but as we all know, we don’t have control over how good or bad we run. Would I like a win-rate of 11%? Sure, but I would not trade an 11% win-rate for a 1350 rating and/or not being competitive in the Daily Challenge Race. For me (and I can only speak for me obv) the game would be less fun without DC ratings and the Daily Challenge Race.

Be Purple or Orange in DC rating. I believe DC rating is an indicator of consistent, high level play. The top players in the game (TH10, Arjun, Paul..) have all been able to have both high win rates and high DC ratings, so I think DC rating is actually an important indicator of solid play.

The Daily Challenge Race. This is a fun way to have some competition that is not just about wins. So, my goal is to be competitive in this area. (and Kudo to nails for all the work he does on the stats and analysis!!!).

Right now I just hope that I am back on the road to where I was in 2017-2022. 2023 and the first half of 2024 were awful for me . My win-rate was down considerably, and my DC rating nosedived out of purple, then out of orange, and I and was under 1380 at one time. So, I had/have a long road back. I needed to review my play with the goal of getting back into form.

As a result of reviewing my play from 2023, and going back and looking at games from 2018/19, I made some changes in mid 2024. But, despite making some changes, and being more patient, and generally not getting polarized too soon, I (like everyone!!!) still needs to run good. There is a ton of variance in this game, and we are all at its mercy! I am in a recent stretch of having better results than 2023. Am I playing better than 2023? I think so, but it would not surprise me if these better outcomes are 95% due to running better and 5% playing better/smarter .

Look at Dynasty for example. A model of consistently playing the Dynasty (unless forced off of it) and going “all in” for wins. In 2017/18/19 his DC wins were 48/25/44.. Did Dynasty suddenly become less skilled at TC in 2018? I highly doubt it. So, imo, it is damn hard to tell if any approaches or changes to approaches are increasing or decreasing win chances when variance can throw such a giant monkey wrench into DCs.

This game can do that, and as you know it is often very hard to evaluate process by only looking at results/outcomes. I guess we can just try and think about “Sklansky” wins in TC….lol. Did we make the best decisions possible with the info we had.

Why am I talking so much about variance? If it was not so high there would be a way in which we could better estimate the amount of wins you are gaining with an "all-in" approach. I have no doubt you have a gain. It just would be neat to know what range that gain is in, percentage wise. But, even without variance, we'd be in a pickle to calculate wins gained for you. We'd have nothing to compare it with, as they only valid comparable would be you playing DCs in a different way.

If I get some time I may comment on the specific tips you noted.