The NHL Thread

i think so, there's precedent for winners on the losing team where they did something special and nobody on winning side was clear favorite

he broke gretsky's record, a record people thought would never be broken - without him edmonton doesn't get through first round

up until last few games, it was neck and neck between bob and barkov

99/100 it goes to barkov or mcjesus, my money on mcjesus win or lose

game 7 would need a 40 save shutout for bob or hat trick from barkov imo in order to stop mcjesus from winning

game 6, 5v5 xg: 59% panthers
score & venue adjusted: 58% panthers

oilers once again came out strong with a good 1st period, extended their lead in the 2nd, and then again turtled in the 3rd for some reason, allowing the panthers 95% of the expected goals and all 4 of the high danger scoring chances, while they racked up a whopping 2 unblocked shot attempts in the 20 minute frame. and once again they held on for the all important victory. and once again, skinner was good and bob was not.

best oilers xg: holloway 62%, mcdavid 54%, nugent-hopkins 52%, hyman 52%, bouchard 52%
worst oilers xg: brown 15%, henrique 25%, kulak 28%, nurse 30%, janmark 31%

the oilers best players have been their best in the last couple games, or least worst in some cases. so if they win ... fair enough. but it's also largely due to how much better skinner has been than bob in the last few.

best panthers xg: tarasenko 85%, luostarinen 84%, ekman-larsson 84%, lundell 81%, kulikov 71%
worst panthers xg: bennett 40%, rodrigues 41%, mikkola 41%, tkachuk 44%, montour 45%

nobody was that bad, other than bob, but they're gonna win this thing guys like tkachuk need to be among the best, rather than the list of shame. tarasenko has been great in 4 or 5 of these games, but maurice keeps not playing him more for whatever reason. #donktacular

i screwed up some of the game reports earlier, anyway here are the cleaned up numbers:

score and venue adjusted 5v5 xg
game 1: 61% oilers
game 2: 60% panthers
game 3: 52% panthers
game 4: 52% panthers
game 5: 74% panthers
game 6: 58% panthers
game 7: ?????
series: 53.66% panthers

i was gonna say before game 6 that the panthers probably win the cup with just one more average game from bob, and almost certainly if he has a good game, but here we are. this still holds for game 7, but now the margin for error is gone. it's a close series, the panthers have been slightly better, but skinner has been better than bob. didn't see that coming after game 1 huh? anyway, whoever is better in game 7 will probably become a champion on monday night. no pressure.

and i guess if you're looking for panthers cope, you might note their last 2 home games

game 2: 60% panthers
game 5: 74% panthers

they lost game 5, but if they have another 60%+ xg game at 5v5 i like their odds

The precedent is only one skater, almost 50 years ago.

That said, he's -3000 at DK to win it. So yes, it's already decided unless something crazy happens like Barkov scoring a hat rick in a win and McDavid not getting any points.

Didn't Ron Hextall against the Oilers win it when Philly lost the series? Im sure it happened once against the OIlers

There are 4 goalies who won it in a losing effort, Hextall is one of them. But only one skater.

Not even Chris Pronger after that monster postseason for the Oilers in the mid 2000s when they lost the Stanley Cup finals as a 8. seed.

bunch of goalies too

and that skater had 10% of the case mcdavid has

i repeat, he broke a record nobody ever thought would get broken

McDavid gets it barring him slashing someone in the neck and killing them on the ice. Still might get it in that instance.

I think McDavid would have to murder 4 people on the ice on Monday and **** 2 of their corpses to be in jeopardy of not winning

Teams who have blown a 3-0 lead in playoffs are 5-4 in game 7s…so, not that hard to lose game 7 when you’ve lost 4-6. I fully expect it to be 5-5 after Monday night’s huge embarrassing failure.

yeah mcbust has already won that. i legit have no idea who the best panther has even been in the final ... on a per minute basis it's probably been tarasenko, but he's only been playing like 10-12 minutes per game. otherwise one of their dmen, probably forsling or ekblad, but obviously they're nowhere close to however many points mcbust has put up.

even if bob has a 50-save shutout on monday (he won't), mcbust almost certainly takes conn smythe.

Why would nobody think a record like that could be broken?

20 years from now we might have a worldwide league with 50 teams and 32 of them making the playoffs or a game that has an average final score of 12-10 because of rules changes necessary to keep a new generation of viewers interested.

Pretty sure people thought OJs 2k yard rushing season was hard to break. These days Eric Dickerson probably doesn't feel too confident once they go to 18 games and potentially more in the not too distant future.

you're ignoring something key

the award is decided by the media

many in the media have outright said "nobody thought that record would ever be broken"

it's their opinions that matter in these things

this is just like when all those people lost piles betting haaland for ballon d'orr just basing it on his insane goal output and not understanding how people vote for that award

what record are you even talking about?

he smashed gretsky's playoff assists record of 31

currently has 34

hard to believe you've been watching the games because it's literally the only thing the commentators talk about

ah ok, yeah that's impressive, but i've never heard anyone say that record is unbreakable. in fact, i've literally never heard anyone talk about that record, ever. people don't really talk about assists too much

Most assists in a single postseason. At least that's what I assumed.

I had to look it up because I thought he was talking about something people actually cared about like most points.

You didn't say "many in the media", you said:

100 years ago when the season had 20 something games, people probably thought it would be difficult to score 100 points in a single regular season. Everyone who thinks a record is "unbreakable" even though that stat is directly correlated to the number of games played should think twice.

When Reggie Leach won the 1976 Conn Smythe in a losing effort he broke the all time postseason goal record that had been standing since 1919. I guess 90%+ of random fans would think that's a bigger accomplishment than breaking any kind of assist record.

FWIW, I looked up the exact numbers. McDavid is averaging 1.42 assists per game. Gretzky averaged more than that in 3 separate playoffs. The 31 assist season wasn't even his highest per game average.

FWIW2, Leon Draisaitl averaged 1.56 assists/game and 2ppg in the 2022 playoffs.

*he broke a record that many pundits in the media who vote on the award say they thought would never be broken

i obv dgaf what normies think about it, they don't vote for the award

And why would you GAF what a couple white Steven A. Smith think?

That's exactly as meaningless as any "normie'. If you have money on McDavid winning it doesn't matter what they say now because you won't get paid before Tuesday and if you don't, the current odds already reflect those statements.

r u watching in india or somewhere like that?

cuz in usa#1 (ABC) all the dork announcers have been talking about is the disparity in special teams and how edmonton is on pace to set the penalty killing record.

again, we're talking about who will the award, hence the opinion of the voters is paramount - are you drunk or something, how is this concept lost on you?

hmm...I heard the panthers have signed and are activating this guy for game 7:

Mcdavid has the Conn locked down. Votes need to be in by like end of second. It would take utter heroics from barkov/bob in first 2 periods to get the vote. Mcdavid might win unanimously even in a loss.

It's not nba. It's based on the whole playoffs, not just the finals.