Professional Cycling 2023 - No Country for Old Men
Spring is upon us which means that this year's road cycling season is well underway, a season which holds many different
I always see "but it's the smart thing to do" as a rebuttal for the argument that Vingegaard isn't about fun/brave/spectacular racing.
None of the smart cycling fans think it's dumb of Vingegaard, I think people -like me- are just frustrated you have someone so strong who's fixated on following and doesn't bring panache to an otherwise exciting race
If Remco & Pogacar (and by extension Mvdp, Wout, Alaphilippe, pidcock, etc..) rode only with their brains and never with their balls, modern cycling would be boring as hell
There was a nobility about how Indurain rode, which was even more pragmatic than Jonas but I think he was more dominant and certain of victory, certainly than Jonas is this year
But yep, the reason I live Pog so much is because of his irrepressible compulsion to attack
I think it's very unfair to characterize Vingegaard as a boring rider who's just riding pragmatically (or at least more so than many others).
Look at last year when he launched early attacks on both the fifth and sixth stage. Or the prior year with Visma's already legendary assault from early stage in the mountains. Or numerous other stage races he's done, such as the Vuelta last year.
Vingegaard makes plenty of ballsy attacks, imo. However, there's a big difference between making a calculated ballsy attack, and being plain stupid - which attacking with Evenepoel and Pogacar on a gravel stage, who both have major upper hands in that terrain, would have been.
Virtually all riders try to ride to their strengths. Pogacar is indeed ballsy, but he comes off as more ballsy largely because of the fact he has a lot more situations where he has the upper hand, where being attacking favors him. He would never attack if he thought it benefitted his competitors.
Why does he attack from 80 km in some races but not in the Tour, for example? Because he knows he's levels above in those races. He doesn't launch silly attacks just for the sake of making the race excited, he attacks when he expects it to be to his advantage (as every competent rider should) and get him the win.
Take the Galibier stage. If Pogacar just rode with his balls, he would have attacked far earlier. But he didn't dare because he expected it would be advantageous to Vingegaard if it was a longer mano a mano duel. Instead, he rode conservatively and only attacked near the top when he knew his punch was to his advantage and all he aimed for was creating separation which would suit his descent. That was extremely pragmatic.
I'm not saying Pogacar isn't more ballsy, my point is if the two switched bodies, and had the other's attributes, they would also to a very large extent adopt the other's approach, simply because it's a style that is better for their strengths. Pogacar is imo already among the greatest riders of all time - overall - whilst arguably the only area that Vingegaard is superior in, is over three weeks in a GT due to his superhumans recovery.
MvdP was actually the exception until a few years ago, because he'd launch braindead attacks with no chance of winning, simply because of how good and aggressive he was as a rider. I think I even wrote in a previous year's thread that the day he learns to ride with his brain, everyone else would stand no chance. And he learned to and is now quickly earning a place among the greatest classics riders of all time - because he is significantly more conservative than when he first began road cycling. Sure, he still launches epic attacks - but always when he expects it to be his best chance of winning.
Vingegaard will just win the Tour once we hit the actual mountains.
Holy moly
What an epic stage.
It seems my suspicion of Pogacar's comments the other day was correct, he's very clearly not at his best right now.
VingeGOAT otoh is getting better and better.
UAE needs to take another approach than they have and start using the gap as a weapon against Vingegaard because this is not looking good with all the stages left
It honestly may be a net negative for Visma to have brought van Aert to the Tour. It's absurd they're spending so much energy trying to get a sprint for him - especially as Girmay and Philipsen are both in the group.
It's already been a costly day for them and the Pyrenees are tomorrow.
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And now Laporte doesn't push in a group of 4 from which he would be major favorite???
Absurd how much they cater to a van Aert in poor form - who likely doesn't win a sprint regardless.
That was a gnarly crash.
latest TDF betting here...Pog 1.87, Jonas $1.95
I kind of feel like we get our answer today.
I think that if Pogacar is not better than Vingegaard today, it will look really good for Jonas, as this is (by some margin) the remaining mountain stage that suits Pogacar the most, in my opinion. The other mountain stages are all significantly harder and/or much later in the race, which has historically benefitted Vingegaard.
Stage 17 should also be a great opportunity for Pogacar, but it's unlikely that the difference between there is going to be a lot.
I think we may see a daring attack from Pogacar over the top of Tourmalet today, hoping to exploit the descent if Vingegaard gets isolated. But that depends on a lot of things, e.g., does Vingegaard have a teammate in a break who can salvage it.
Banger day for Pogacar and the lead is now one that I think he would be happy to take into the final ITT. Visma will need to try something while Pogacar in theory can sit on Jonas' wheel all day and attack at the very end of the stage to gain a few more seconds here and there.
Yeah a great day for Pogacar. It seems I was wrong in saying Pogacar wasn't gonna get any better given it sounds like today was perhaps his best performance watt/kg wise ever.
If he can keep that up he's obviously untouchable. But I'm not sure he can. A major problem today was that Visma were just passengers. They allowed Pogacar to ride exactly like he wants, a relatively easy and controlled stage all day, and then he can win on his punch on a steep climb.
Visma need a hard race all day to grind down Pogacar, Vingegaard benefits the harder it is (as we saw Wednesday). But Visma do not have the team to make it hard, which is a major cause cause for concern.
Sepp Kuss is currently earning himself more of a pay raise than he ever could have had he been there lol.
Banger day for Pogacar and the lead is now one that I think he would be happy to take into the final ITT. Visma will need to try something while Pogacar in theory can sit on Jonas' wheel all day and attack at the very end of the stage to gain a few more seconds here and there.
Yeah, I think Pog won’t be too scared of Jonas about the final tt.
To win, Jonas needs to take back significant time over the mountain stages and be within 30 seconds IMO but I might back Pog even if the times are the same.
Sunday stage is critical really for Jonas and suits him better than today, albeit I’m sure he would prefer a finish over 2000m elevation. But he needs a win and some seconds for GC time but also psychologically. Whether he has the strength without his team and after today….not sure
Crazy performance by Pogacar again, I hope Vingegaard keeps trying on stage 19 and 20.
Yup, Pogacar is on another level - literally. Apparently some people have calculated that this was the best climbing performance of all time, beating Pantani's record from 26 years ago.
Vingegaard even said he thinks his performance today may have been his best ever, and he got crushed today. Unbelievable. It's not over yet but it's looking extremely difficult.
He may as well keep riding offensively. After all, it's not like he's risking anything except losing even bigger to Pogacar, as he's putting time into anyone else. I think he'll keep trying as long as there's a chance - but Pogacar will need a serious off day now.
suspiciously fast performances or is there a good explanation?
Yes Jonas rode very well today and those two guys are on another level.
The way they caught and passed the breakaway on the last climb was super impressive - there was an aerial shot of them as they wound them in and passed them and the difference in wattage was very clear to see
Pog really on another level this year. Jonas’ prep not good this year but he showed up and is doing well - last year Pog wasn’t at his best but he still competed to the end.
We are blessed to have these two guys competing at the same time and they are still both young. If Remco keeps developing then we have some great times ahead
I have noticed that people are actually very quick to refute any such concerns by pointing out all the scientific improvements with regards to training regimes and food and ketone bodies (or ketones?, I hardly know what they are, let alone in English), materials, aerodynamics etc. And of course relying on data to ride at their ~full maintainable power the whole stage.
But the only thing we know for sure is that it's impossible to rule out.
US Postal was also revered for their professionalism, but not only in hindsight was it very suspect for Armstrong to demolish the most talented riders in the world who occasionally got caught doping. Improving doped up Pantani's time by like 5 minutes seems a lot, just like casually keeping up with Pantani on his best day and ostensibly letting him win some mountain stage, while dominating every other mountain, was.
You just gotta imagine an asterisk after every result and try to enjoy the sport regardless.
I read some pieces by a sports from two years ago who said it was only a matter of time before ('natural') riders would overtake the peak 90's performances. A thing he noted is that Vingegaard and Pogacar (and Remco) have looked great even before they turned pro, which indicates they are 'naturally' exceptional. It's more suspect if a rider goes from mediocricy to beating Pantani, for example.
He also pointed out (as I've also seen from numerous other sources) that teams use all sorts of 'legal' doping - meaning performance enhancing stuff that is not outright forbidden (but which easily could be in the future). In theory they could have something more effective than EPO, and if it's not outlawed, they will 100% use it. Vingegaard has himself stated he 'doesn't use anything illegal'.
I remember Visma using baking soda in the past, and reading about some riders getting a cocktail of oxycodone and caffeine for the final climbs on tough mountain stages to reduce pain without causing drowsiness.
There's undoubtedly an arms race going on between the teams - and there is no doubt that no team would hesitate to use something that is legally fair game if it improves performance. In the 90's, using IV drops with glucose to replenish sugar levels was allowed - and everyone used them because they were a major advantage - but has since been forbidden.
Article I read this morning said that the 5 min improvement isn’t a fair comparison - air temp, humidity, wind etc are all variables that can make significant differences
I still believe in VingeGOAT, although I must admit I see Pogacar as the favorite. But there are some silver linings which hopefully means we could still get an interesting race.
- Vingegaard is getting better. If yday really was among his best performances of all time, we're seeing the same pattern as usual with Vingegaard where he only gets better. If that trajectory continues, he will be extremely strong in the alps. His team also look good yesterday, which will hopefully keep improving for the alps.
- Pogacar seems better than ever - but last year he also seemed to have improved in some ways before he crumbled. For one, he could drop Vingegaard which he never could in '22. Pogacar often has an off-day (relatively speaking) in the third week - in fact it has happened every single Tour he has ridden. He seems impervious right now, but things can change quickly, and hopefully the Giro can begin to take a toll although I'm beginning to doubt that it will. Pogacar right now must be extremely confident - but confidence for him has sometimes lead to being overzealous (most famously on the Granon stage). If he thinks there is virtually no danger for the GC, he may ride offensively to win more stages - which will in theory favor Vingegaard.
- The 19th stage in particular is at a very high altitude - where Pogacar has often noot looked great. His worst performances each Tour has been when the mountains were high, Ventoux (although not that high, in '21, but that was also not a terrible performance), Col de la Loze x2, Galibier/Granon in '22 - and while he did fairly well on Galibier this year, he actually only just created a 10 seconds gap near the top - which Vingegaard was closing relatively rapidly until the top, and then Pogacar dominated the descent. Cime de la Bonette is nearly 200m higher than Galibier, and with Isola 2000 immediately after the descent, this stage is very similar to the Granon stage.
Article I read this morning said that the 5 min improvement isn’t a fair comparison - air temp, humidity, wind etc are all variables that can make significant differences
It's not about the time but the watt/kg effort, as far as I understand. Here's a link to an article:
- which actually also states that Vingegaard's performance is the second greatest climbing performance of all time - after Pogacar.
