2023 NFL Conference Championships

lol ok.

If you want to give yourself less of a chance of winning then that's fine too

I actually don’t hate going for it on 4th and 2 though. Old timers will say it’s arrogant to go for it, if they kicked it twice they win, they had momentum, etc.

How is it less of a chance of winning?

Who is doing that though?

I actually prefer going for it on the 4th and 3.

At the end of the day if we want to ignore actually diving deeper into it, SF fluked into 7 if not (the large part of) 14 pts. Coaching decision or two isn't the biggest driver here.

because you have a lower win probability kicking the FG than you do by going for it

Stinkypete lives again

The only do-over for me was wasting all that time scoring TD when Lions had 1st down at 24 with 1:39 and 3 TOs.

Campbell can take 3 free rolls then kick FG, and still have reasonable chance of winning.

Even getting OOB with 1st down on 2 was not bad, but the run choice on 3rd down was horrible.

Why didn't he feel good at the end of the first half I wonder?

I mean if we're gonna make him out to be a genius for going for it the other 2 times, he should be called out for kicking the one time the models advised going for it the most.

are we talking about the last possession of 1st half? as discussed, you don't benefit as much from reverse field position advantage and potential PIs on 4th & 3 which makes that a clear FG in my mind. would be surprised if analytics saw it massively differently.

everyone will second guess the go on 4th & 2 in the 3rd, but nobody would if reynolds makes the easy catch. in that world, campbell is a kneebiting boss who takes no prisoners and plays GTO and all hail campbell. it's results orentiation to a T.

Agreed. 9ers get next possession at 25 regardless. 4th and 3 for TD has about 30-35% chance, and that is a league average comprised of average defenses and many running QBs (which Goff is not). FG is as close to 100% as any kicker will ever get.

Using exp. pts alone it's 0.35 x 6.94 = 2.43 vs. 0.98 x 3 = 2.94.

B/E for TD is 42.3%. 4th and 2 maybe, 4th and 1 yes.

With less time remaining it becomes an even clearer choice to kick FG.

Conference championship = pegging.

May have already been posted but I saw that the kicker was 9/20 from 48+ which is the worst in NFL history.

Lol dude is a meathead, the bloom is going to be off that rose soon

This was the opportunity

Mistakes that cost the game:

Reynolds drop
Gibbs fumble
Missed int helmet pass
...
Campbell decisions

Without looking at analytics or any stats, my gut feel in order of mistakes:

Should've kicked to go up 3 scores in Q3
Clock management on final drive (was a big mistake but less costly since situation was already dire)
End of Q2, should've gone for it, but fairly close
When down 27-24, I liked going for it at 4th and 3

There were zero datapoints in that database on the exact situation they faced. And they could play the game everyday for next billion years and not have the same exact situation cone up again. Like fingerprints, it’s infinite

The worst part of all this is that Mike Wilbon is going to rant about analytics for several minutes on PTI tomorrow.

Ya I mean I’m obviously happy the 9ers won but this is going to be a victory lap that lasts forever for the anti analytics crowd which makes me sad

I’m curious what the math said on the FG before halftime

Feel like that woulda said go for it

I've got him 5-13 career from 50+. Looks like 37-48 career from 40-49. So it could well be if he went 4-7 from 48/49, very feasible. The first one in the third quarter would have been 45 yards. If all this jibes, probably does, he's 90% career from inside 48 (89 for 99).

Good presser by Campbell. Before I saw it was thinking the two main explanations were:

1. Letting macho "I'm going for it" attitude and declarations bogusly overrule valuing being up 3 scores in a championship game.
2. Bad application of analytics.

It looks more complex than that watching him speak. I'm catching some opposition for my draconian viewpoint regarding how ill-advised it was.

If the Lions lined up for a FG up 24-10, the Niners a-hole puckers major, as in, "Oh no, we are going down 3 scores." With the stop it's "we are a drive from one score down." That almost baited and fueled the momentum change which is the one thing the Lions needed to avoid most. There's math and there's game psychology. Both in my opinion, strongly favored trying to add the 3 points, which reverses any momentum of SFran having just cut it to two scores. So now, we are deeper in the game, another half quarter gone, and maintaining status quo in the game with a huge lead. If anything, shouldn't this factor have leaned to going for it at the end of the first half and kicking closer to the end?

In chess, and lots of things, when you are way ahead gambling your position is ill-advised. You grind the game when you are way ahead, you don't explode it. There is a middle ground between getting overly conservative and risk taking, and it seems the Lions brass don't know the middle way when it's called for. I mean, going for the fourth down there was perfect if you are down 14, is it still right if you are up 14? I just don't think analytics carries that much weight and is deeply tied to "how many points does this produce as related to win%" and not tied enough to game situations. Sometimes, that is.

everyone is acting like the Q3 fg wouldve sealed the deal or taken them to OT. that's not a given. they got their **** rocked in the 2H. a 21 point lead would've been much greater insulation than 17. 17 wasn't given, it was a 45 yarder. if reynolds completes the easy catch, they run an additional 2-4 minutes off the clock whether they score a TD or a FG. going for it was the right decision -- or, at the very least, not a terribly wrong decision, campbell will be lambasted regardless, anti-analytics folks will take their victory laps doubling down on their stupidity, and the whole world is dumber as a result. shame to think if reynolds makes the catch nfl coaches everywhere might've updated to be more campbellesque and we'd see more optimal football games.

^I feel dumber already after reading some of the comments online in other places. I actually think going for it on 4th and 2 is reasonable and defensible, even if I would hesitate to do it. A lot of people would call me an idiot for thinking that.

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