Super Bowl 58: #3 Kansas City Chiefs vs #1 San Francisco 49ers (-1)
Kansas City Chiefs: 11-6, AFC West Champion
WC: 26-7 v Miami
Divisional: 27-24 @ Buffalo
Conference: 17-10 @ Baltimore
Super Bowl Record: 3-2
Last Appearance: Super Bowl 57 (38-35 W v Philadelphia)
How they got here:
If you followed along Kansas City's offense has done everything imaginable to ruin this for Kermit and the Swifties. So many drops, Toney lining up offsides to force them to play on the road, despite an incredible defense this really seemed like the year Kansas City was finally going to be not remotely close to the best team in the AFC. Then they get into the playoffs and put in some ****ing work. Mahomes scored 14 points in the first 2 drives, a field goal since and that was good enough to beat the ****ing Ravens at home. Pretty eye-opening no matter how you look at it.
Mahomes played on the road in the playoffs for the first time in his career (which in it of itself is an insane stat for a guy who is now playing in his 4th Super Bowl) and they put in work. They played on the road for the second time in his career. And they put in work. Patrick Mahomes remains the only active NFL player with equity to go down as the greatest to ever play.
San Francisco 49ers: 12-5, NFC West Champion
WC: Bye
Divisional: 24-21 v Green Bay
Conference: 34-31 v Detroit
Super Bowl Record: 5-2
Last Appearance: Super Bowl 54 (31-20 L v Kansas City)
Last Win: Super Bowl 29 (49-26 v San Diego)
How they got here:
Holy ****ing ****.
The Niners started the season 5-0 and in doing so looked like a generationally dominant team that was going to run away with the NFL.
Then they lost Trent and Deebo, lost 3 straight and looked like total ass doing so causing everyone to assume they were frauds.
Then they won 6 straight and in doing so looked like a generationally dominant team and Brock ****ing Purdy was the runaway betting favorite to win the MVP.
Then Christmas happened.
But all's well that ends well and they made the playoffs as the #1 seed.
Then the Green Bay game happened.
For 50 minutes Bork played like I would and the Niners looked finished. Then he pulled a hell of a comeback out of his ass and they won.
Then the Detroit game happened.
I literally just watched this game a couple hours ago and I still can't explain to you what happened and how except that somehow someway the Niners won. And that's cool!
What makes this Super Bowl so compelling
I can see why people hate both of these franchises for a thousand different reasons, but brace yourself for what will be the most watched televised sporting event (possibly most watched television event of any kind) in American history. And it probably lives up to that. Obviously the Swift element is...a thing. And we are going to have 2 weeks of lead-up for that which will be...a thing. But put that aside for a second and there are stories galore.
Whatever you think of Brock Purdy, last year he was the last pick of the draft. This year he is starting in the Super Bowl. Could he have pulled this off if any other team drafted him? Of course not. He fell ass backwards into an epic situation and the Niners fell ass backwards into a lucky draft pick. Trading 3 1s to move up in the most overrated draft in history only to have your franchise QB be some random guy from Iowa who only got the job because the two guys in front of him went down? If this weren't shoved down your throat for the better part of a year and a half it's the coolest story since Kurt Warner, bagman, who only got the job because the two guys in front of him went down. Btw, this time last year the guy broke his ****ing elbow and yet here we are.
Holy **** Patrick Mahomes. 6 years as a starter. Has made it to the AFC Championship 6 times. Has made it to the Super Bowl 4 times. Has a chance to get his 3rd ring and the ****er is only 28. He won't have Brady level longevity but we are witnessing absolute greatness like most of us have not seen in our lifetime. It sucks if you are a fan of any other team but the Chefs but still.
Rumors circulating this may be the last ride of the Walrus. Historically the man is both massive and massively underrated. His work with Philadelphia was both amazing and unlucky. His work with Kansas City has been nothing short of legendary. 4 Super Bowl appearances in 5 years with the potential for 3 wins. I would argue he is the actual greatest coach in NFL history.
Which is a good segue into the modern day iteration of Philadelphia Walrus. Ever since the Falcons implosion I would argue no coach in the NFL has more more criticism despite more success than Kyle Shanahan. The guy is an objectively brilliant offensive mind and in his 7 years as Niners coach they have gone to the NFC Championship 4 of the last 5 years and twice have made it to the Super Bowl. And they did this with QB luminaries like the Womp and the Bork. Kyle schemes like nobody in the NFL can but every time the Niners fell short it all fell on him despite the fact that they overperformed to get where they were in the first place.
This game is a rematch of Super Bowl 54 which still hurts my ****ing soul (Bosa was held on 4th and Tyreek, never believe different). These two teams don't have much history but the history they do have is massive. SB 54 kickstarted the Chiefs dynasty and the failure of Womp to close it kickstarted the Niners neverending hunt for a franchise QB that went from maybe Brady to maybe Rodgers to maybe Lance to....Purdy? Lots of trajectories changed 4 years ago and we come full circle.
Why the Chiefs will win the Super Bowl
This defense is good. Like, really good. Like, really really good. Pacheco has stepped up and the Niners run defense has been horrendous so far in the playoffs. Plus, you know, that Patrick Mahomes guy. Mahomes smoked the Ravens for the first 2 drives on the road which is as comparable as there is to a theoretical matchup with the Niners defense. The Niners have been pretty lax the entire playoffs to start the game and 1. both games are at home and 2. neither teams they faced are as good as Kansas City. There is no margin of error for lazy bullshit and if the Niners bring that energy to the Super Bowl this is going to be a ****ing rout.
Why the 49ers will win the Super Bowl
The Niners have an overwhelming amount of talent. The biggest knock against them is that they could not play from behind and the entire playoffs they had to come from behind. Were they lucky against the Lions? Absolutely. But they proved that even down 17 points they have a QB who is not going to be overwhelmed by the moment and a defense that can still step up when needed even if they failed catastrophically. As good as the Chiefs defense is they have yet to face an offense like the 49ers with as much efficiency and talent across the board as they have. Plus this defense is ludicrously talented. They may take 30 minutes to get jumpstarted but once they do they are locked in.
Gentlemen, let us Super Bowl.
Well, that was a pretty exciting game. Especially if you somehow missed the first half that felt a little like the TB - KC SuperBowl.
Feel bad for 49ers fans. Must suck to be that close for the second time in a couple of years only to have Mahomes somehow win it for KC. Again after a pretty rough start.
I think 49ers are clear favorites to win it next year. But as always it might be a bad idea to bet against Mahomes.
Apparently 49ers' peak equity in this game was 87.7% and as referenced before, the 49ers had 96.1% in the first interation vs KC. Pretty sick.
another reason to go at the end of regulation, mahomes already ripped their hearts out 4 years ago lol
like this isnt new!
not sure when they wouldve been 87.7 though, up 19-16? dont agree with that at all
1st half up 10-0? that's way too early to get to -700
This is getting way ahead of things and maybe I'm overreacting but I'm feeling 2016 Falcons vibes with the 9ers as I type this.
Are all these guys really gonna stay healthy next year? CMC, Trent, Deebo, Bosa, Kittle, Warner? Is Purdy gonna play this well again? Schedule gonna be tough, division looks somewhat tough
NFC kinda sucks but I dunno, could see this being it for them.
I dunno, they've taken some brutal Ls over the years.....I guess NFC kinda sucks could be bolded probably but feels like
they're a little overthecap next year.
most of their best players have a lot of dead cap still. they can post June 1 trade or cut quite a few of the top guys and get some cap savings, but I wonder if they'd do that?
they can extend Aiyuk to save maybe $10m or trade him to save it all. ($14m currently)
The guy they can get out of cheapest is McCaffrey but they're not doing that. And it wouldn't be smart to extend him.
They could save $7m by cutting Dre Greenlaw but he's still great value and he'll be injured through the offseason which (I think) means they would have to pay him anyway but I'm not sure about that?
If I had to trade one of the highest paid guys it would probably be Samuel. I do think he's really good but less essential than the others and they could save $21m on next year
maybe Armstead ($18m saving) too given they have Hargrave and Bosa?
Mahomes is so good in close games maybe the books should start to separate the ML and spread more
Chiefs -3/-465 in next years superbowl
you pretty much gotta blow him out to have any chance, Philly had their chance last year and SF did this year after he threw the int on the first drive of the second half and they just went 3 and out and punted it right back. once it came down to the last drive he was never losing.
it seems like the only time he doesnt cover is when hes playing Brady or as a > 1 score favorite like against Jax last year where they win by one score but never get below like 90% win equity
another reason to go at the end of regulation, mahomes already ripped their hearts out 4 years ago lol
like this isnt new!
not sure when they wouldve been 87.7 though, up 19-16? dont agree with that at all
1st half up 10-0? that's way too early to get to -700
It doesn't jive with me intuitively either. The 87.7% equity moment according to ESPN was when KC had the ball 3rd and 1 at the KC 34, 6:29 left in OT. Score was 22-19 SF. Actually I think it was right after Pacheco ran for no gain to set up 4th and 1 if I'm reading it correctly.
not sure when they wouldve been 87.7 though, up 19-16? dont agree with that at all
1st half up 10-0? that's way too early to get to -700
Pretty sure highest 49ers win probability was up 22-19 in OT with KC facing 4th&1 in their own half.
Funny enough at that point after the 49ers scored only 3 I was convinced KC would win it after being extremely pessimistic all game even after they went ahead briefly in the 3rd.
Kinda hope the next couple days will be used by the media to focus on the Chiefs D and special teams instead of what the 49ers did wrong and Mahomes legacy talk. Pretty sure we can agree he's on the QB Mt. Rushmore now since that has 4 spots and there's obviously no way KC wins tonight without him doing Mahomes things but the story of the season is that everyone but the offense carried the team.
Spags is the first coordinator to win 4 rings. Pretty wild for someone with a 11-41 record as HC, one of the worst in NFL history.
That was tense. I made my peace that the Chiefs were probably going to lose about 5 different times. I just about shat myself when they came out in shotgun on 4th and inches for the game.
another reason to go at the end of regulation, mahomes already ripped their hearts out 4 years ago lol
like this isnt new!
not sure when they wouldve been 87.7 though, up 19-16? dont agree with that at all
1st half up 10-0? that's way too early to get to -700
niners were never 88% to win. think the highest they got in live betting was ~70%. espn equity calcs and the like are notoriously overconfident, probably not factoring in goatmahomes or chokejobpurdy.
where you at ethbtc?
So much had to go wrong for the Niners to lose by 3 it’s kinda wild tbh
1. Cmc fumble
2. Botched punt
3. Blocked PAT
4. Butker kicking the low snap inches away from being blocked by either of 2 ppl
5. Brown missing the pick on mahomes’ blind lob
6. Greenlaw tearing his Achilles running onto the field
7. Kittle hurting his shoulder just long enough to miss a crushing holding call by his backup by 1 play
Don’t get me wrong, there was some self inflicted nonsense too but holy ****
The one thing that is most perplexing for me is the stupidity of NFL coaches.
How do you stop Mahomes? You keep him from getting the ball.
How do you do that? You run the ball and eat the clock to limit possessions.
Ravens: We're the best running team in the NFL. We should just pass the ball!
49'ers: We have the best RB in the game. We had a good first drive running the ball, but he fumbled. We should pass the ball more!!
This isn't rocket science. Stop with the FPS, you dumbasses.
5 wide out of the shotgun on 3rd and goal in OT was the most baffling thing. Like, no **** they’re blitzing you there and it’s not like you’ve been able to contain Jones at all
TBF, half those things happened 1:1 to the Chiefs during the game (Pacheco fumble, Bolton INT that would have basically ended it) or before the game (Omenihu and Thuney injuries).
Everyone said before the game KC has a significant edge at special teams and nowhere else. So that part shouldn't have been a surprise.
And at least this time nobody can blame the refs because all soft calls went against the Chiefs yesterday.
At the end of the day, if you dominate KC on both sides of the ball the way SF did in the first half you have to build a much bigger lead. If you fail to do that, at least capitalize on the INT on the first second half possession. Mahomes is 9-2 when trailing by 7+ in the postseason. If you give him the chance to do "something special" (like he said in the first 49ers SB) odds are he's going to do exactly that.
It doesn't jive with me intuitively either. The 87.7% equity moment according to ESPN was when KC had the ball 3rd and 1 at the KC 34, 6:29 left in OT. Score was 22-19 SF. Actually I think it was right after Pacheco ran for no gain to set up 4th and 1 if I'm reading it correctly.
The 4th and 1 play would be the lowest KC win equity clearly.
Of course I would never put much faith in ESPN to model that situation sufficiently. League averages might get you 12.3, and the free roll effect of 9ers scoring after KC FG is likely feeding a lot of that result. But they are likely ignoring KC going on 4 downs the entire drive, along with overestimating KC kicking FG.
TBF, half those things happened 1:1 to the Chiefs during the game (Pacheco fumble, Bolton INT that would have basically ended it) or before the game (Omenihu and Thuney injuries).
Everyone said before the game KC has a significant edge at special teams and nowhere else. So that part shouldn't have been a surprise.
And at least this time nobody can blame the refs because all soft calls went against the Chiefs yesterday.
At the end of the day, if you dominate KC on both sides of the ball the way SF
Add to that the 9er center downfield on the CmC TD which wasn't called.
Reid came up shooting blanks with that botched no-challenge/TO with the Kelce apparent 1st down reception. But KC had nobody to blame but themselves. There are plenty of opportunities to do the wrong thing, reffs included.
9ers did the absolute minimum to win this game, and it clearly was not enough.
5 wide out of the shotgun on 3rd and goal in OT was the most baffling thing. Like, no **** they’re blitzing you there and it’s not like you’ve been able to contain Jones at all
9ers blitzed Mahomes similar situation and he easily made the completion.
The game boiled down to the huge disparity in QBs, and how one team was able to exploit that. The OT 4th and 1 from shotgun a perfect example. Next play he reels off 22.
I appreciate we’re all jaded by the Purdy discourse and SF had more than enough opportunity to win the game; but there were plays there to be made that could have pushed them over the line. Purdy definitely didn’t lose the game, but he certainly didn’t win it either.
It’s just really hard to win without a QB who can impact THE game that matters in crucial moments.
The game boiled down to the huge disparity in QBs, and how one team was able to exploit that. The OT 4th and 1 from shotgun a perfect example. Next play he reels off 22.
Purdy is a 24 year old kid playing in his first Superbowl against a guy having the best 6 year run of any QB in league history. Considering that, I think he did a very good job. Played almost mistake-free football under the brightest lights the game offers against a very good defense.
If anything Purdy proved that he belonged there.
Purdy did his job. On a range or possible Purdy outcomes, he was on the better side of the range.
Somebody should tell that to Kyle.
Switch QB and coach and 9ers win by 14+ easily.
My point was not that Purdy played as bad as he did in his other poor efforts this year, but his ceiling was nowhere close to Mahomes and Kyle chose the safe route with him.
not that it matters now but can't believe that 2nd and 12 catch wasn't reveiwed unless they aren't automatic in playoff ot
in real speed doesn't look like a catch at all
Purdy did his job. On a range or possible Purdy outcomes, he was on the better side of the range.
Basically this.
I mean look, he was mediocre as hell the 2nd and 3rd quarters when Kyle moved away from the run. But the 3 most pressure filled drives of his life (the first drive, the final drive of regulation and the OT drive) he was way more poised than you can reasonably expect out of someone like him playing in a game of that magnitude
Sucks he didn’t connect on the 3rd and goal but he is a big reason they almost won that game
He’s also a reason they didn’t, but still. He certainly didn’t lose the game and the Niners are ****ed without him
When I first heard Kyle mention the 3rd OT possession thing as his reason for receiving kick, it seemed like damage control to me.
Now several 9er players coming out admitting they were not aware of the new OT rules, and one directly contradicting Kyle's statement that they talked about it prior to the coin flip.
Probably does not get played much in the media but this was definitely a lack of preparation on Kyle's part.
FWIW reports are KC was fully prepared with the new OT rules.
