Super Bowl 58: #3 Kansas City Chiefs vs #1 San Francisco 49ers (-1)
Kansas City Chiefs: 11-6, AFC West Champion
WC: 26-7 v Miami
Divisional: 27-24 @ Buffalo
Conference: 17-10 @ Baltimore
Super Bowl Record: 3-2
Last Appearance: Super Bowl 57 (38-35 W v Philadelphia)
How they got here:
If you followed along Kansas City's offense has done everything imaginable to ruin this for Kermit and the Swifties. So many drops, Toney lining up offsides to force them to play on the road, despite an incredible defense this really seemed like the year Kansas City was finally going to be not remotely close to the best team in the AFC. Then they get into the playoffs and put in some ****ing work. Mahomes scored 14 points in the first 2 drives, a field goal since and that was good enough to beat the ****ing Ravens at home. Pretty eye-opening no matter how you look at it.
Mahomes played on the road in the playoffs for the first time in his career (which in it of itself is an insane stat for a guy who is now playing in his 4th Super Bowl) and they put in work. They played on the road for the second time in his career. And they put in work. Patrick Mahomes remains the only active NFL player with equity to go down as the greatest to ever play.
San Francisco 49ers: 12-5, NFC West Champion
WC: Bye
Divisional: 24-21 v Green Bay
Conference: 34-31 v Detroit
Super Bowl Record: 5-2
Last Appearance: Super Bowl 54 (31-20 L v Kansas City)
Last Win: Super Bowl 29 (49-26 v San Diego)
How they got here:
Holy ****ing ****.
The Niners started the season 5-0 and in doing so looked like a generationally dominant team that was going to run away with the NFL.
Then they lost Trent and Deebo, lost 3 straight and looked like total ass doing so causing everyone to assume they were frauds.
Then they won 6 straight and in doing so looked like a generationally dominant team and Brock ****ing Purdy was the runaway betting favorite to win the MVP.
Then Christmas happened.
But all's well that ends well and they made the playoffs as the #1 seed.
Then the Green Bay game happened.
For 50 minutes Bork played like I would and the Niners looked finished. Then he pulled a hell of a comeback out of his ass and they won.
Then the Detroit game happened.
I literally just watched this game a couple hours ago and I still can't explain to you what happened and how except that somehow someway the Niners won. And that's cool!
What makes this Super Bowl so compelling
I can see why people hate both of these franchises for a thousand different reasons, but brace yourself for what will be the most watched televised sporting event (possibly most watched television event of any kind) in American history. And it probably lives up to that. Obviously the Swift element is...a thing. And we are going to have 2 weeks of lead-up for that which will be...a thing. But put that aside for a second and there are stories galore.
Whatever you think of Brock Purdy, last year he was the last pick of the draft. This year he is starting in the Super Bowl. Could he have pulled this off if any other team drafted him? Of course not. He fell ass backwards into an epic situation and the Niners fell ass backwards into a lucky draft pick. Trading 3 1s to move up in the most overrated draft in history only to have your franchise QB be some random guy from Iowa who only got the job because the two guys in front of him went down? If this weren't shoved down your throat for the better part of a year and a half it's the coolest story since Kurt Warner, bagman, who only got the job because the two guys in front of him went down. Btw, this time last year the guy broke his ****ing elbow and yet here we are.
Holy **** Patrick Mahomes. 6 years as a starter. Has made it to the AFC Championship 6 times. Has made it to the Super Bowl 4 times. Has a chance to get his 3rd ring and the ****er is only 28. He won't have Brady level longevity but we are witnessing absolute greatness like most of us have not seen in our lifetime. It sucks if you are a fan of any other team but the Chefs but still.
Rumors circulating this may be the last ride of the Walrus. Historically the man is both massive and massively underrated. His work with Philadelphia was both amazing and unlucky. His work with Kansas City has been nothing short of legendary. 4 Super Bowl appearances in 5 years with the potential for 3 wins. I would argue he is the actual greatest coach in NFL history.
Which is a good segue into the modern day iteration of Philadelphia Walrus. Ever since the Falcons implosion I would argue no coach in the NFL has more more criticism despite more success than Kyle Shanahan. The guy is an objectively brilliant offensive mind and in his 7 years as Niners coach they have gone to the NFC Championship 4 of the last 5 years and twice have made it to the Super Bowl. And they did this with QB luminaries like the Womp and the Bork. Kyle schemes like nobody in the NFL can but every time the Niners fell short it all fell on him despite the fact that they overperformed to get where they were in the first place.
This game is a rematch of Super Bowl 54 which still hurts my ****ing soul (Bosa was held on 4th and Tyreek, never believe different). These two teams don't have much history but the history they do have is massive. SB 54 kickstarted the Chiefs dynasty and the failure of Womp to close it kickstarted the Niners neverending hunt for a franchise QB that went from maybe Brady to maybe Rodgers to maybe Lance to....Purdy? Lots of trajectories changed 4 years ago and we come full circle.
Why the Chiefs will win the Super Bowl
This defense is good. Like, really good. Like, really really good. Pacheco has stepped up and the Niners run defense has been horrendous so far in the playoffs. Plus, you know, that Patrick Mahomes guy. Mahomes smoked the Ravens for the first 2 drives on the road which is as comparable as there is to a theoretical matchup with the Niners defense. The Niners have been pretty lax the entire playoffs to start the game and 1. both games are at home and 2. neither teams they faced are as good as Kansas City. There is no margin of error for lazy bullshit and if the Niners bring that energy to the Super Bowl this is going to be a ****ing rout.
Why the 49ers will win the Super Bowl
The Niners have an overwhelming amount of talent. The biggest knock against them is that they could not play from behind and the entire playoffs they had to come from behind. Were they lucky against the Lions? Absolutely. But they proved that even down 17 points they have a QB who is not going to be overwhelmed by the moment and a defense that can still step up when needed even if they failed catastrophically. As good as the Chiefs defense is they have yet to face an offense like the 49ers with as much efficiency and talent across the board as they have. Plus this defense is ludicrously talented. They may take 30 minutes to get jumpstarted but once they do they are locked in.
Gentlemen, let us Super Bowl.
I didn't even know he was on the Giants for the first 3 years of his career before one season in SF until I saw "3x Super Bowl champion" under his name and went to Wikipedia to find out where the non-Denver title came from.
But it looks like they wouldn't be the first one. According to Google, Steve and Zak DeOssie both won a title with the Giants.
I haven't seen anyone else running them in SE so I wanted to post this again. I'll be wrapping this up soon so if you haven't already gotten your squares but you're interested in some, stop being a nit and hop on over to OOT or just PM me. Here's what's left:
$10 #1 - SOLD OUT
$25 #1 - SOLD OUT
$50 - SOLD OUT
$10 #2 - 24 left
$25 #2 - 65
$250 - 50 / SOLD OUT?
We've reached the halfway point on the $250s. I'm a bit stubborn and not ready to give up quite yet. I'm going to start a wait list for anyone who still wants to get in on the $250s. If I can get it up to at least 85-90 sold, I'll run it with the blank squares mentioned before. If I can't get that high, it'll become a $125 board and everyone who has signed up so far will get double the squares.
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/34/ot...
Sorry for the spam
6-point laser!
But he was, and this is a goat offensive system and supporting skill position group that produced very similar Jimmy G discourse exactly four years ago (and we got our answer on that 3.75 years later!!).
I was looking for the first time I ever used Wompwompalo (which I just changed to Womp cuz I can’t be typing that all out every time and don’t know how to use scripts) cuz I know it was years ago and came across this from 2022
ok, I'm tired and I've got a lot of tequila and I doubt I can speak coherent English right now but **** it, time to let it rip
James Richard Wompwompalo
holy mother****ing **** you are a worthless ******* who I want to Phil Leotardo with my rav4 hybrid. the only downside is the sweet sweet sound of your cantaloupe breaking will be muffled by the spaceship sound my car makes going in reverse
the worst part about this pos is how much the people in the Bay Area ****ing love him which leads me to...
I don’t remember making this post but I stand by every word
Spoiler
Peerless hating, no notes
(The “womp” and Purdy situations may not end up being so different, is all I’m saying)
In the Green Bay game the 49ers had 17.5% win equity at one point according to ESPN. Vs the Lions it was as low as 8.5% equity. So my prediction is this: SF will beat KC but they will have less than 20% equity and somehow overcome that again becoming presumably the first champion in NFL history to win it all while having less than 20% equity at some point in every playoff game.
In the Green Bay game the 49ers had 17.5% win equity at one point according to ESPN. Vs the Lions it was as low as 8.5% equity. So my prediction is this: SF will beat KC but they will have less than 20% equity and somehow overcome that again becoming presumably the first champion in NFL history to win it all while having less than 20% equity at some point in every playoff game.
Basically the same as 4 years ago but reversed. Not sure how low Chiefs win equity was but it was looking grim
KC 27
SF 21
- - - - - - - - - -
coin toss: heads
player to score the first TD: Kelce
marriage proposal after the game: no
total number of Purdy turnovers: two (one INT and one lost fumble)
Marriage proposal: no seems like a solid bet
Call me a hopeless romantic but I actually believe the kelce swift thing is legit. Nothing would expose what a sham relationship this is more than a post Super Bowl proposal
Basically the same as 4 years ago but reversed. Not sure how low Chiefs win equity was but it was looking grim
Against Houston the win% was definitely below 10% at some point (they trailed 24-0). It was below 5% against the 49ers when they trailed by 10 in the 4th quarter before the 3rd&15.
But I doubt it went anywhere close to 20% against the Titans even when they trailed by 10 in the 2nd quarter. The model had them with a 75% win probability before the game.
One of them has a dad bod the other one looks like he's 13.
Against Houston the win% was definitely below 10% at some point (they trailed 24-0). It was below 5% against the 49ers when they trailed by 10 in the 4th quarter before the 3rd&15.
But I doubt it went anywhere close to 20% against the Titans even when they trailed by 10 in the 2nd quarter. The model had them with a 75% win probability before the game.
Below 5% 4 years ago was quite the comeback.
Basically the same as 4 years ago but reversed. Not sure how low Chiefs win equity was but it was looking grim
My guess without looking it up: KC had less than 10% equity in that SB.
Now I'll look it up: when SF was up 20-10 with 7:17 left in the game, Chiefs had 3.9% equity. My god it never felt that low.
Against Houston the win% was definitely below 10% at some point (they trailed 24-0). It was below 5% against the 49ers when they trailed by 10 in the 4th quarter before the 3rd&15.
But I doubt it went anywhere close to 20% against the Titans even when they trailed by 10 in the 2nd quarter. The model had them with a 75% win probability before the game.
My god I had forgotten how crazy that chiefs run was. Looks like the low point equity for KC vs Titans was 38.7%. Vs Houston 6.1%.
My guess without looking it up: KC had less than 10% equity in that SB.
Now I'll look it up: when SF was up 20-10 with 7:17 left in the game, Chiefs had 3.9% equity. My god it never felt that low.
The Chiefs were one play away from a 4th and 15 for basically the game. The 9ers could have camped out at the sticks and made it incredibly difficult.
I can't believe there's 3 more days of blibbety blab.
Every local and national football podcast I listen to has already said everything there is to say.
SF 27 - KC 24
