2024 MLB Season Thread
Nobody wants these games to start more than Mannfred.
Shohei just spoke to the media for the first time. In a prepared statement, he said:
-He never bet on baseball, or any other sport,
-He didn't know that Ippei lied to him, and that Ippei took the money from Shohei's account to pay his gambling debts
-He'll continue to cooperate with the investigation, and play as the investigation plays out.
If all that's true, then this is probably the best possible outcome for his reputation going forward. He's a naive star athlete who trusted the wrong person. It happens.
In any event, these games are about start! Last year, just like we all predicted, "Someone Else" came on strong in the playoffs, as the Texas Rangers defeated the Arizona Diamondbacks for the World Series. Can that happen again?
T-Mobile is giving away a free MLB.tv subscription ($149 value) to T-Mobile subscribers starting TOMORROW (Tuesday 3/26 - April 1). Don't miss out.
So speaking of gambling, here are the current best odds for the World Series you can find, from Vegas insider!
Kimbrel sold the ranch again in the 9th, but the birds won a crazy one in extras, apparently
I'd be curious to know how Statcast is calculating xBA. Baseball HQ has Ohtani's xBA at .336. It's a little hard for me to see how anyone with a BABIP of .391 could possibly have an xBA higher than his actual BA.
It's based on individual batted balls - it's essentially a combination of exit velo, launch angle and batter speed for each batted ball. For example certain combinations of launch angle and exit velo (and not just high exit velo) might essentially guarantee that you get a single almost all the time, in which case your xBA for that batted ball might be something like .960.
So yes, while BABIP of .391 is high, what that stat is saying is that based on Ohtani's contact quality, it should be even higher and he's been unlucky in terms where they ended up. For more info:
https://www.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/ex...
This isn't perfect because certain hitters might persistently underperform (for example, until the shift was banned, lefty pull hitters tended to underperform xwOBA), but for a small sample size, it's far superior to traditional stats if you want to understand how the batter actually performed.
I'm sure that once there's enough data, we could improve it by just adding directional noise (as in for each batted ball, but take the average of batted balls that are within, say, 10 degrees) rather than ignoring direction entirely since batters have control over the general direction, just not precise direction. Pull tendency does matter a bit for flyball hitters with good but not great raw power since a lot of pulled HRs would become routine flyballs when hit to center. In general, you want to be a pull hitter for flyballs, but a spray hitter for groundballs.
With that said, no one is doing anything more sophisticated than Statcast as far as I know, so if someone else has drastically lower #s (well before today's game), it's either outdated, doesn't use granular data, assumes regression or maybe just wrong.
Now I think of it, adding noise to launch angle might also make expected stats more predictive as well. Batters don't control precise launch angle either but expected stats can be very sensitive to it. In fact in the future, we might even be able to simulate noise more holistically using a physical simulation (add a tiny bit of noise to contact point and timing rather than outcome).
If only Ohtani were allowed to bet on himself, he’d surely bat .400.
I understand. But that's still an insanely high BABIP.
FWIW, I'm not remotely critical of Ohtani. If you were genetically engineering baseball players, the template would look a lot like Ohtani. You really couldn't ask for a more optimized set of physical tools.
As we get another generation in the Statcast era, I think we're gonna learn which hitters and pitchers create their own BABIP. Not that there will be a general rule, but we'll identify some outliers.
Like, great fly-ball pitchers (Verlander) are gonna be lower BABIP guys directly related to how they pitch. Extremely hard-hitters with high barrel rates like Ohtani/Judge will have higher BABIPs directly related to how they hit.
The general rule of BABIP and HR/FB% being stats to indicate luck or regression is gonna have a lot of exceptions as we learn more about batted balls, I'm saying.
MLB.com notes that Contreras has been setting up closer to the batter behind the plate to improve his defense. While a good strategy for framing pitches, it ultimately comes with quite a cost.
"It’s a huge risk, and it was talked about in the offseason and a topic in discussion because there were more [catcher's interference calls], because they are evaluated on framing," Marmol said. "The closer they’re able to get to the hitter to get that low pitch, it’s definitely a topic of conversation. The risk is high, and we just experienced it."
To make matters worse, Martinez was awarded first base.
I feel his pain. I broke my left wrist in 3 places when i fell clearing brush about 6 years ago. Essentially ruined my golf career. Luckily I can still drink beer with right hand with no discomfort. 😆
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I feel his pain. I broke my left wrist in 3 places when i fell clearing brush about 6 years ago. Essentially ruined my golf career. Luckily I can still drink beer with right hand with no discomfort. 😆
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that injury looks horrific ugh :(
but on to more important concerns...r u the Undertaker from WWE?
👍
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omg...u r the Undertaker!
er...um...Go Rangers!!!
KC, baby!
I shiit you not, I've been told I look like the undertaker a few times. lmao
uncanny for my stoned head
I've been told I look like McLovin, but that's probably because I'm actually Christopher Mintz-Plasse.
Tigers going with their men's O40 softball uniforms today. I'll try to get a screen grab, they look worse on the field.
those would be the City Connect jerseys.
Introduced in the 2021 season, the Nike MLB City Connect Series celebrates each city's deep-rooted history, culture and spirit that continues to bring the clubs and their communities together.
translation: shameless method to generate additional jersey sales
Mets city connect jerseys look great.
Mets are just trying to look like Yankees normal jerseys. Astros are okay dark pants are always bad with baseball jerseys.
Wsox and Angels look ok from what is shown.
Royals Goat
2-run blast to take the lead in the 9th, and avoid being shutout for the 2nd time this season. 5-0 loss to the O's, the royals only bagel
