UEFA European Football Championship 2024

i hit both england and netherlands figuring at least one will get to finals 85%+ of the time and then can easily hedge out on other side in the final

365 is a UK company

Switzerland then hedging before the final looks like the pro move

it doesn't work that way, there are many reasons for ignoring b365 odds, but that is not one of them - those are perfectly in line with the rest of the market

The 0.94 figure is a new stat, xGOT. Nothing to do with a certain TV series but what the goal probability was after the shot was taken, so an indication not only of shot quality but also of save.

Hmmmm it kind of does if a lot of the tourney winner money is coming from the UK, on bookies and exchanges which keep broadly in line with each other for obvious reasons.

But also INGURLUNDDD have a much easier route, in theory.

but you're wrong, b365 is global, and go ahead and check other global books like pinny/bm etc and you'll find those are consensus lines

and even if it were geofenced to uk only, syndicates wager far more than individuals who's average bet size is like 10 pounds so if you do have that kind of arbitrage opportunity it's not on a mainstream market such as the euros and those syndicates, even if not established in the uk, would definitely branch out to pound those off market lines

there's lots of mistakes out there all the time but it's otherwise a fairly efficient global market and your thesis, while wrong, is an oft repeated trope - even said by enthusiasts, media, & influencers so it's a commonly misunderstood thing about how it all works

I disagree and I’ve done pretty well in laying inguurlund and other assorted faves for a long time.

gentle reminder you're telling someone who does this for a living how it works

If you say so. The home money bias is real and well evidenced.

If you’ve been doing this for a living and know how it all works why are you questioning englands odds? You should be telling us why they’re false favourites.

you may want to show your work on that

I always take the lay odds as the 'true odds'

Apologies for the poster confusion.

So you make England tourney faves?

Neither back or lay odds are true odds because they’re either under or over a 100% book.

no

they'll be a dog to whomever they face in the final

but they got the draw of a lifetime to get there and on paper have possibly the best roster in the tourney (but just never learned how to play together) and they will not need to face a single top team to get to the final

I think that’s way off though widely believed, and is a good example of money distorting true odds.

France had a much better squad at the outset imo ie before Mbappe did his nose in but as usual the PLs status as the best league has led to some English plyers being somewhat overrated when not accompanied by their illustrious foreign club team mates.

i'm beginning to understand why you catch so many strays in the epl thread

ffs what does it matter how good mbappe was pre-broken nose, what matters is now he has that broken nose

they also don't have a natural left back, which is severely hampers them - kounde who has been filling in there normally play cb and rb and it's obvious that he's not comfortable playing on that side when watching

france also needs to win 2 consecutive coin flips to make it to the finals - 3 of the top 4 teams are all on one side of the bracket and portugal isn't too far off themselves

Lots of Spurs fans in that thread.

Point being that we don’t know how significant the nose will be. It’s hard to imagine him being less effective than Kane anyway, don’t you think?

And your point about LB applies to England. For some reason GS went with only one fit LB, and FYI he had been pretty bad most of the season. Meanwhile on the other flank Walker looks a shadow of his old self. And as for the MF, idk what Bellingham is but he’s not a 10. I had thought he was a BTB, though hadnt seen a lot of him, but I can see why Real don’t trust him in that role. Popping up out of nowhere with goals after poor performances is quite a party trick though.

Yes I already made the obvious point about the draw.

You coming in with the leave it to the pros attitude was unexpected. Don’t tell me you really do this for a living? Maybe just cash out before the hot run ends.

France have played every single game with Theo Hernandez at LB.

M'Bappé has sucked since the first leg against barça, broken nose hasn't changed ****

idk what rickroill is talking about. Kounde's played every game at RB. Can't even be watching the games.

all non-UK books have roughly the same odds though

Pinnacle is best book

There's as many Arsenal fans and they all think you're wrong / missing the point / obsessed with Spurs more than you care about Arsenal a lot too.